trend

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali posted on platform X, stating that ETH seems to be forming a bullish trend on lower time frames, as long as $2640 continues to act as a support level, this pattern remains tilted towards the bulls.Ali further pointed out that the current focus is on the $2700 level. If ETH closes above $2700 on an hourly basis, it may confirm an upward breakout and open up further space to test $3000.

JackYi (@Jackyi_ld) analyzed that this round of BTC pullback closely aligns with its prediction made 20 days ago, when it had already warned that BTC would face significant resistance around 86K and suggested taking profits at that position.JackYi emphasized that the pullback does not change the overall trend of the bull market; in the early stages of a bull market, there are opportunities everywhere, and high-quality assets will rise in turn. Investors should forget setbacks, filter out noise, and focus on finding long opportunities.

Cryptocurrency KOL and former FTX community partner Benson Sun stated that he expects the current Bitcoin market to show a gradual new high slow bull trend, rather than forming a clear top after a rapid short-term rise like in 2013 and 2017. Before the true cycle top arrives, the market may experience multiple local top signals. He believes that after 2021, the main buyers of BTC have gradually shifted from retail investors to institutions such as publicly listed companies, spot ETFs, and corporate treasuries.Since institutions mainly buy spot, some funds will also use Delta Neutral strategies for arbitrage, and traditional indicators such as funding rates and MVRV Z-Score may not rise to extreme levels again at the cycle top. Recently, the cycle top is more likely to manifest as institutional funds losing momentum rather than retail sentiment becoming overly heated. The Institutional Liquidity Index (ILI) mainly references overall dollar liquidity, the mNAV of Strategy, and the net flow of Bitcoin ETFs to determine whether institutional funds follow up when BTC reaches new highs. When BTC sets a new rolling 30-day high while ILI does not rise simultaneously, it constitutes a yellow divergence; when BTC breaks historical highs while ILI diverges and is below 50, it constitutes a red divergence.Benson Sun indicated that he would use the frequency of yellow divergences as a reference for judging the cycle process: each occurrence would lead to a proper reduction in altcoin positions and leverage; as the market enters the later stages, he would gradually increase the proportion of BTC and ultimately retain only spot. If a red divergence occurs, he would stop participating further.

According to official news, Gate Live will launch the second issue of "Lucas Global Stock Observation" on September 24 at 20:00 (UTC+8). This session will be hosted by Lucas Sum, the head of stock market development at Gate, focusing on the core question, "With the Federal Reserve's decision finalized, what will be the next trading moves for U.S. stocks?" It will analyze the changes in market expectations after the FOMC and the subsequent trends in U.S. stocks.This live broadcast will focus on interest rate expectations, technology and AI, industry rotation, and other directions. It will combine the performance of U.S. stocks, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar after the FOMC to dissect how Federal Reserve policies affect stock valuations and capital flows, and share market signals that are worth continuous attention in the future.

According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin network hash rate has rebounded after ending a recent downward trend, indicating that miner activity has somewhat recovered.

Renowned trader Killa stated, "The 'Everything is Priced In' chart records the major catalytic events in each cycle of Bitcoin, as well as the price performance after these events occur." He believes that during bear markets, negative news typically drives BTC to continue falling, leading traders to gradually form the habit of "shorting on bad news"; however, when the high time frame trend reverses, the same news may only cause temporary panic, after which Bitcoin absorbs the selling pressure and continues to rise.Recently, the market has experienced the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, the voting expectations for the CLARITY Act, and the failure to advance the act. At one point, the market viewed these events as reasons for Bitcoin to decline further, but BTC only briefly fell below the range's low point, quickly rebounding and showing strong resilience. Even when narratives related to a "Third World War" intensified, Bitcoin began to respond relatively positively to panic factors in terms of price. He believes this performance is a significant distinction between bull and bear markets: in a bear market, bad news drives prices down, while in a bull market, bad news may prompt traders to capitulate, after which prices continue to rise.Killa noted that the important catalyst confirming the continuation of the last cycle was the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF, while a similar catalyst for this cycle may be the CLARITY Act. Bitcoin's recent ability to digest multiple pieces of bad news is an important basis for his judgment that the trend has already changed.

Liquid Capital founder Jack Yi posted on the X platform, stating that once again, in line with expectations, after the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $76,000 but continued to rise after fluctuations. He repeatedly reminded that during a bull market trend, one should not short, and various factors will influence the process; one must not easily exit until the end of the bull market.Next, in line with the bull market, asset explosions, especially trading infrastructure and on-chain finance, are essential. During this cycle, try not to chase narrative projects and follower projects.

On September 17, WEEX TradFi market data showed that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the three major U.S. stock indices closed lower. After the interest rate hike expectations were realized, funds flowed back into the AI chip and optical communication sectors, with mixed performance in the storage sector. Specifically, chip stocks generally rose, with INTC up 4.03%, AMD up 1.65%, and NVDA up 0.82%; optical modules generally rose, with LITE up 9.59%, COHR up 6.92%, MRVL up 3.61%, and NOK up 3.05%; the storage sector showed divergence, with STX up 1.47%, WDC up 1.22%, MU down 0.11%, and SNDK down 0.71%.WEEX Labs believes that while the index is under pressure, the optical communication and some chip sectors are recovering in parallel, indicating that after the interest rate hike, funds are more willing to trade the oversold AI hardware sector, and the structural divergence is more noteworthy than the index direction. Today's focus is on the interest rate path pricing after the dot plot and whether the transaction in optical modules can turn the rebound into a trend.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has shown a relatively independent trend before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced, with a significant decrease in its short-term correlation with the US dollar index and US stocks. Alice Liu, the research director at CoinMarketCap, stated that the short-term correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the US dollar index has dropped to 0.08, compared to -0.54 over the past 30 days; its correlation coefficients with the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index have decreased to 0.43 and 0.3, respectively, from 0.75 and 0.6 the previous day.Liu believes that the market has recently shifted its attention to the CLARITY Act, which failed to pass a key procedural vote in the Senate on Tuesday, temporarily overshadowing regulatory progress with macro factors. As the correlation weakens, the strategy of hedging Bitcoin long positions by shorting S&P 500 futures has currently decreased in reliability. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, a scenario that has been largely priced in.This decision will test whether Bitcoin can re-establish its linkage with the US dollar and US stocks; traders also need to pay attention to the guidance after the meeting and fluctuations in US Treasury yields, as a significant rise in the latter could tighten financial conditions and drive risk-averse capital flows into the crypto market.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that the essence of investment is to seek assets with certain upward potential, while the essence of trading is to find strategies that yield stable profits. In a market where profits can only be made through speculation, it is often the case that losses outweigh gains, making it more important to control greed and the mentality of taking chances in investment and trading.Yi Lihua believes that the current market trend indicates a confirmed bull market, but there are still risk factors such as interest rate hikes and legislation in the short term. Therefore, the choice is to hold spot positions and observe, rather than participate in short-term speculation.

CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 stated that Bitcoin is breaking through the bottom and starting a bullish trend. The spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders (LTH) is rising above 1, and the market is shifting from a bearish phase to a neutral one, initiating a comprehensive upward trend.He emphasized that in this cycle, the SOPR has not yet exceeded 6, while historically, cycle tops usually form within this range. This means that long-term holders have not yet experienced a profit-taking phase, and a true bull market rally has not yet occurred. Everything prior has been a preparatory phase for the current upward trend, with LTH holdings at historically high levels and continuing to increase until recently. He believes that the real upward trend is starting now, and the cycle top will appear in the profit-taking range when the SOPR exceeds 6.

According to a report by CryptoQuant, cryptocurrency trading volume made a strong comeback in August. After falling to multi-year lows during the bear market, both spot and perpetual contract trading volumes surged significantly on August 21 with the price rebound. The daily spot trading volume reached approximately $75 billion, the highest since February, with Binance leading at $19.4 billion, Coinbase at $8 billion, and Gate at $5.1 billion. The daily perpetual contract trading volume reached about $336 billion, the highest since March, with Binance leading at $124 billion, OKX at $46 billion, and MEXC at $30 billion.The report noted that this increase in volume was due to buying rather than selling—previous spikes in trading volume this year were accompanied by sell-offs, while this time coincided with Bitcoin rising 24%, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards bullishness. The 30-day trading volume growth rate was the fastest since 2026, with Gate's spot volume increasing by 667% and Coinbase by 429%; in terms of perpetual contracts, Binance grew by 202% and Bybit by 184%. The report suggests that the rebound in trading volume may signal the end of the bear market downtrend.

TrendForce's latest research on the memory industry indicates that the NOR Flash market is experiencing the most significant supply-demand structural change in nearly a decade. AI-related products are absorbing a large amount of capacity, and suppliers find it difficult to significantly increase NOR Flash bit output despite the continuous growth in high-end application demand. Therefore, the supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist in the second half of 2026, with overall contract prices remaining high.Although suppliers in Taiwan and China have increased capital expenditures and expanded production, the new capacity cannot be immediately converted into market supply. New output must first go through process migration, yield ramp-up, product certification, and customer design integration, making it difficult to alleviate the supply shortage in the mid-to-high capacity segment in the short term. Winbond expects the strongest bit growth in 2026, driven by the full-scale production of 45nm NOR and the migration to 25nm and 20nm. GigaDevice is upgrading the process for products of 32Mb and above, with effective output limited in the first half of the year. MXIC will prioritize additional 12-inch capacity for NAND and eMMC, limiting the growth of NOR wafer input.In 2026, AI and aerospace communications will become the main sources of new demand. The NOR usage in AI servers is 3-5 times that of traditional servers, with high-density demand driven by edge AI, AI PCs, robotics, and low-orbit satellites. In the first half of 2026, the average cumulative contract price increased by 100-120%. In the second half, the average price of products of 256Mb and above may rise by another 90-110%, while prices for products of 128Mb and below are expected to increase by 10-20% in Q4 2026.

Renowned trader Killa posted about the potential impact of the upcoming FOMC meeting on the cryptocurrency market this week. He stated that many people are very focused on macroeconomics, policies, and economic data to predict the next moves of assets, but Killa believes that "most macro narratives are just distractions." Killa noted that BTC often starts moving before the reasons become clear. By the time the macro environment shifts and the herd realizes it, Bitcoin has usually already completed its move. Correlation is often lagging. The market does not move because most people understand it. Most people understand it because the market has already moved.As a quantitative trader focused on BTC, Killa predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and switched to long during the market-wide decline on June 5.

Whale "Set 10 Big Goals" stated on the X platform after the release of today's US CPI data that Bitcoin has not fallen below $74,000, and the bullish trend remains unchanged."Set 10 Big Goals" previously stated: "Next, look for opportunities to re-enter long positions. This round of trend is stronger than I originally imagined, so the imagination for the future can be bolder. Entering at $80,000 or even above $80,000 is still not too late; there is still room. $100,000 is likely to arrive sooner than I originally expected. When it reaches $100,000, we will reassess how far this round of trend can go."

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin formed a golden cross earlier this week (the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average), but subsequently did not experience a sustained increase, instead retreating from around $80,000 to about $77,000. It is noteworthy that most of the recent rise occurred before the golden cross—Bitcoin had previously risen from $62,000 to $82,000.The article points out that similar situations have historically repeated multiple times: after the golden cross in 2021, BTC fell from $52,000 to $40,000; after the golden cross in February 2023, it retreated from $23,000 to $20,000; after the golden cross in October 2024, it slid from $70,000 to $67,000; and after the golden cross in May 2025, it corrected from $110,000 to $100,000. Analysts believe that while the golden cross is seen as a long-term bullish signal, it may essentially be a lagging indicator, as a significant portion of the gains often have already been realized by the time the signal appears.

On September 10, U.S. stocks closed with all three major indices falling, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of declines; Brent crude oil briefly touched around $108, U.S. Treasury yields rose, suppressing risk appetite; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 2.66%. In terms of concept stocks, most sectors such as chips, optical modules, and storage retreated, with the seven giants showing divergence: Apple (AAPL) rose 3.56%, Alphabet slightly increased, Microsoft was nearly flat, while others fell. In the energy sector, XOM rose about 0.61%, with some energy stocks resisting declines driven by oil prices.WEEX Labs believes that the rise of AAPL indicates that funds are still willing to invest in the new product cycle despite macro headwinds; investors need to closely monitor the August CPI data released today, which is the macro highlight of the week and will directly impact next week's interest rate pricing and market reactions. Trade stocks and gold using WEEX TradFi, and you can also participate in daily egg hunts, with a 100% prize rate, winning up to 10,000 USDT in position airdrops.