speculation

According to CoinDesk, the stock price of the cryptocurrency platform Gemini has fallen by about 80% since its listing, with its market value dropping from a peak of approximately $4 billion to $753 million. Trading volume, revenue, and platform assets have all continued to decline, leading to renewed speculation about a potential acquisition. Gemini's exchange revenue in the second quarter decreased by 38% year-on-year to $12.5 million, spot trading volume fell by 66% to $3.8 billion, and platform assets decreased from $18.2 billion to $8.4 billion.Lorenzo Valente, Director of Digital Asset Research at ARK Invest, posted on X last month that the offshore perpetual contract platform Hyperliquid should acquire Gemini, using it as a gateway to enter the regulated U.S. market for perpetual contracts and prediction market business. The Winklevoss brothers hold 94.5% of the voting rights in Gemini, which may simplify transaction negotiations but also means that any sale must be approved by both individuals. There are currently no signs that Hyperliquid is actively pursuing an acquisition.Despite the decline in exchange business, Gemini still holds regulatory licenses and approvals that are difficult for competitors to replicate. Potential buyers may weigh the cost of acquisition against the time and legal fees required to apply for licenses independently. This aligns with the trend in cryptocurrency mergers and acquisitions where buyers increasingly value regulatory infrastructure, distribution channels, and market access, such as Keyrock's acquisition of BlockFills' trading assets and Ondo exploring an acquisition of up to $500 million. CoinDesk reported in April that potential buyers were considering acquiring Gemini's closed European and UK operations to obtain licenses. Gemini declined to comment on this.

Tesla has announced that it will hold a launch event on October 1 to showcase its next-generation Roadster electric sports car. This event may spark speculation about a merger between Tesla and SpaceX. The phrase "Go for launch" used by Tesla officially echoes SpaceX's rocket launches.

According to a report by Cryptonomist, GSR's market director Spencer Hallarn stated in an interview that the hype around tokenization has surpassed the actual usage on many platforms. The issue lies not in the market's demand for tokenized assets, but in the design of the platforms themselves. He pointed out that many walled garden-style tokenization platforms with strict KYC requirements generally lack meaningful trading volume, as cumbersome access and compliance processes limit activity.Hallarn believes that the real opportunity is not in tokenizing for the sake of tokenization, but in fixing the underlying pipelines of traditional banking and settlement systems, specifically the infrastructure for transferring funds and assets between institutions. This would make tokenization more of an infrastructure repair rather than merely a narrative of crypto products.He also mentioned that the stagnation in the crypto market this year is largely due to funds shifting towards AI infrastructure, with large tech companies raising substantial amounts of capital for AI infrastructure through equity financing, tightening the liquidity of various assets, and crypto is no exception. Its clients are also shifting from chasing short-term momentum to long-term budget planning, over-the-counter hedging, and RWA. If AI investment cools down and the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, liquidity is expected to improve and support Bitcoin prices.

The Shanghai headquarters of the People's Bank of China held a work meeting for the second half of 2026, during which it emphasized the need to firmly uphold the bottom line of preventing systemic financial risks. It will continue to strengthen the assessment and verification of bank institution ratings. Monitoring and analysis of systemically important financial institutions will be enhanced.There will be ongoing prevention and handling of risks related to speculative virtual currency trading. Efforts will be made to actively promote the standardization of financial product online marketing behaviors by local institutions. The mechanism for preventing and resolving systemic risks will be continuously improved. There will be a strengthened crackdown on illegal financial activities. The framework for macro-prudential management will be continuously refined. The level of cross-border financial risk monitoring will be comprehensively enhanced.

On-chain data shows that Strategy has transferred back 411 BTC previously moved to Coinbase Prime to its own address, and market speculation about its sale of Bitcoin has cooled down.

According to Gelonghui, Buffett responded in an exclusive interview with CNBC regarding "Berkshire currently holding about $380 billion in cash, and the market is highly concerned about why it has not made large-scale acquisitions or investments": the prices are too high, and there are too few targets.Buffett stated, "Now is not our ideal environment for deploying cash for Berkshire." He emphasized that the company has the right management team to selectively choose opportunities: "Sometimes we do nothing, but sometimes we are very active."When discussing the current macro stock market environment, Buffett used the metaphor of "a church with a casino" to describe the speculative atmosphere on Wall Street. People can move between the church and the casino, with more people in the church than in the casino, but the casino has become very attractive to people.He pointed out, "If you are buying and selling single-day options, that is not investing, nor is it speculation; it is outright gambling." Referring to a recent case where a U.S. soldier used confidential information about military operations in Venezuela to profit $400,000 in the prediction market, he said: unless one knows when we will strike into Venezuela like that person, no one can explain why they would buy a one-day option; the number of such occurrences is astonishing.We have never encountered a crowd with a greater propensity for 'gambling' than now. Buffett further noted that the surge in gambling enthusiasm does not necessarily mean the market will collapse, but it will lead to a long-term high price for many assets.

CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno wrote in a report: "The demand for perpetual futures contracts is the only driving force behind the rise in Bitcoin prices, while the apparent demand for spot continues to shrink. This structure has historically appeared during bear markets and is often difficult to maintain an upward trend."Moreno stated that the divergence between rising futures demand and shrinking spot demand is one of the clearest signals on-chain, indicating that this rally is more speculative rather than driven by structural growth. He pointed out that this means the price increase is mainly driven by leverage rather than new inflows of Bitcoin.Moreno also said: "Historically, this type of structure lacks the foundation to support sustained price increases, and once futures positions begin to unwind, it usually corrects through price pullbacks." CryptoQuant indicated that the current demand structure driven by perpetual futures is similar to the situation at the beginning of the bear market in 2022. While this does not mean that the same outcome will necessarily occur this time, the current structure does present significant downside risks.

MemeCore CEO Jun tweeted that the true value of any project does not depend on short-term attention, headline valuations, or how much profit the foundation can extract, but is built on trust.Jun pointed out that while some may question MemeCore's valuation, the project's responsibility goes beyond creating temporary hype; it is to strengthen the ecosystem around the project, contribute to a healthier market environment, and build something that can exist long-term.He admitted that the blockchain industry has witnessed too many projects driven by speculation, short-term hype, and "pump and dump" behavior. Although MemeCore started as a meme project, a meme project can do much more than attract attention; it can also create culture, build trust, and contribute to a healthier market environment.Previously, on-chain detective ZachXBT questioned the review process for Kraken listing Memecore (M) spot trading and pointed out that there were anomalies in the related on-chain fund flows. Data shows that last week, M's market cap once soared by nearly $6 billion, but it has now fallen back to around $4.7 billion.

At the "Crypto 2026: From Cryptocurrency to Smart Economy" themed forum held in Hong Kong, guests including Sign partner Sarah, HashKey Chain Senior Business Development YuYi, Monad Greater China Ecosystem Head Harvey Chen, OmenX Chief Marketing Officer Gisele, and SVP Chain Market Head Celest engaged in a roundtable discussion on "The Revaluation of Crypto and the New Cycle."Regarding why they remain firmly invested in Crypto amid the AI boom, Sarah pointed out that the hotter AI gets, the more use cases there are for Crypto assets, and future transactions between AI Agents will rely on digital assets. YuYi believes that the bear market is precisely when the wheat is separated from the chaff, with compliant RWA (such as Hong Kong's first physical silver token) being implemented, speculative assets being eliminated, and the era of on-chain infrastructure arriving. Harvey Chen stated that high-performance public chains are the foundation for supporting large-scale applications, and Monad is committed to this. Gisele noted that Crypto addresses fairness and value transfer, complementing AI's focus on efficiency. Celest emphasized that AI lacks a native value system and increasingly requires Crypto to provide value authentication and decentralized trust.On the changing understanding of Crypto's value, the guests unanimously agreed that the industry is shifting from "issuing tokens for the sake of issuing tokens" to pursuing sustainable business models, with greater focus on capital efficiency, low costs, and 24-hour settlement as practical values. The value of public chains should be assessed based on real business scenarios and user transaction volumes, rather than narratives and financing.Regarding future growth engines and entrepreneurial advice, the guests generally expressed optimism about compliant RWA, AI payments, and sovereign blockchain directions, advising entrepreneurs to focus on real application scenarios, avoid empty concepts, and maintain a long-term construction mindset.

According to Cointelegraph, Nikita Bier, the head of X products, previously hinted at the launch of a product related to "fixing the crypto industry," sparking widespread attention and speculation in the market. The market generally believes that this crypto product may be related to its financial ecosystem layout, expected to involve the upcoming payment and digital wallet product X Money, potentially covering various integration directions such as Bitcoin payment integration, Solana ecosystem collaboration, stablecoin applications, and prediction markets. As of now, X has not made any official response regarding the related plans.Musk previously stated that the early public access version of X Money will be launched in April.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the current Bitcoin market is entering an early stabilization phase, with long-term holding behavior gradually strengthening, indicating that the market structure may be undergoing a change.Data shows that since October, the number of BTC held for over one year has increased from about 12 million to approximately 12.4 million. Although the increase is still moderate, it reflects a shift in market behavior towards long-term holding. Since mid-December, the 30-day change has consistently remained positive, indicating that investors are more inclined to continue holding rather than distributing their assets. Darkfost pointed out that this change typically signifies a transition from a speculation-dominated phase to a stronger long-term conviction phase. Historically, the proportion of long-term holdings usually declines significantly at market peaks and gradually rises during bear markets, so the current trend can be seen as an early stabilization signal for the market. However, he also emphasized that this indicator belongs to a long-term dimension and typically requires a longer time to form a clear trend, and we are still in the early stages.

Iran's New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei Has Not Made a Public AppearanceIran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not made a public appearance for a long time, sparking strong speculation about his serious injuries. In the face of rampant rumors, the son of the Iranian president and senior relatives urgently came forward to clarify, insisting that the new leader is "safe and sound."A relative of Mojtaba told the Financial Times: "He is currently in good condition and is still busy with various tasks. For security and political reasons, he has decided not to make any public appearances for the time being. To some extent, this also creates uncertainty for his opponents, preventing them from getting accurate information about him. Let them guess slowly." The expert meeting did not clarify whether Khamenei was present during the meeting and did not provide details about the voting process.Earlier reports indicated that Iran's ambassador to Cyprus, Alireza Salarian, stated in an interview that Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was injured in the airstrikes by the United States and Israel on February 28.

The Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, stated at the press conference on the economic theme of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress that, overall, in the past year, financial risks in key areas of our country have been resolved in an orderly manner, the financial system and financial market have operated smoothly, and risks in key areas have continued to converge. The People's Bank of China, together with relevant departments, has maintained a high-pressure crackdown on illegal financial activities such as illegal fundraising, speculative trading of virtual currencies, and underground banks.In the next step, the People's Bank of China will orderly resolve risks in key areas to prevent financial risks and maintain financial stability, continue to carry out a high-pressure crackdown on illegal financial activities in collaboration with industry regulators and law enforcement departments such as the police, closely monitor and assess the impact of external shocks, and utilize macro-prudential and financial stability policy tools to timely weaken or block risk contagion.