signals

Glassnode published a market perspective stating that Bitcoin is currently caught between the median realized price (around $63,000) and the cost basis of short-term holders (around $68,700). Spot trading volume has hit its lowest level since 2019, and the market is in an extremely quiet compression state. Despite core inflation falling to 2.5% in July and the stock market reaching new highs, Bitcoin has shown almost no reaction and even weakened, indicating a clear lack of demand.On the other hand, selling pressure is easing: profit supply is approaching the past bear market bottom area, the seller exhaustion indicator has hit a cycle low, and the adjusted SOPR has been rejected near the breakeven line nine times. Meanwhile, buyers continue to be absent, with minimal net inflows into ETFs, and coins are still flowing into exchanges; however, derivatives leverage has already massively gone long, with open interest relative to trading volume being high, and the order book's buy side is also thinning. Glassnode believes that the key observation points are the upper level of $68,700 and the lower level of about $58,500: effectively standing above the former with accompanying volume and ETF inflows recovering may confirm improvement, while losing the latter could easily lead to accelerated declines under thin buy support and crowded longs. Glassnode remains cautious overall, believing this is the late-stage bear market compression phase, and real demand signals have yet to appear.

Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos stated that for the Federal Reserve, the July employment report will be a difficult data set to interpret. New evidence that the labor market has not re-accelerated may weaken the urgency for a rate hike next month, but this still depends on better inflation data.The decline in the unemployment rate will continue to keep the market focused on inflation data. Whether price pressures are rising or falling will determine if more officials conclude that they cannot maintain their inflation target forecasts with interest rates unchanged. A moderate inflation report will strengthen the rationale for keeping rates unchanged (as two consecutive months of moderate data begin to show a trend rather than noise). Conversely, strong data would call the forecasts into question again and give officials opposing a rate hike the opportunity to seek a fourth vote in favor.

According to CoinDesk, Bitfinex analysts released a report stating that derivative traders have largely been washed out during the Bitcoin sell-off at the end of June.Bitcoin fell below $58,000 on July 1, and since then, the average daily liquidation amount has remained well below this year's typical range of $400 million to $500 million, indicating that despite macro shocks, there is little forced selling pressure. The decline in the Bitcoin market is smaller than that of leveraged stock themes because the "fuel" for forced selling has been exhausted.Bitfinex analysts expect that investors will remain defensive ahead of next week's U.S. employment report (the next major macro catalyst after the Federal Reserve meeting).They believe that rather than worrying about a new round of forced liquidations, the more critical question is whether the inflow of spot Bitcoin ETF funds can return once the market has a clearer judgment on the Federal Reserve's path.The analysts wrote, "We believe that positions will remain defensive as long as the risk of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes persists. Whether institutional buyers are active or insensitive to prices is the signal that traders have yet to see."

Today, Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang analyzes the latest Fed interest rate decision and market trends. He pointed out that although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, the 3 dissenting votes supporting a rate hike indicate a strengthening of internal hawkish forces. Coupled with sticky inflation and geopolitical risks, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike in September have risen to 72%, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher and further suppressing U.S. stock valuations.Combining technical analysis and practical operations, Lewis Huang stated that as rate hike expectations ferment, technology stocks and overall market valuations face significant pressure, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices showing clear bearish signals; on the other hand, the U.S. dollar index is likely to remain strong under hawkish support, while oil shows resilience supported by geopolitical situations.He suggests that CFD traders should align with the macro theme of "tightening expectations" at this stage, closely monitor the upcoming Jackson Hole annual meeting guidance, and flexibly seize both long and short trading opportunities, such as shorting indices at high levels and going long on the dollar in forex.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin funding rate is showing typical signals before the significant increases in September 2024 and December 2022, indicating that pessimism may have recently peaked.From March to May, Bitcoin corrected over 50%, and the accumulation of short positions pushed the funding rate down to negative values. Subsequently, BTC rebounded to $82,000 in May. This signal has appeared again, potentially leaving room for a bullish reconstruction in the coming months. This indicator has been transformed into a monthly sentiment aggregation tool, which is more effective than the Fear and Greed Index.

According to CoinDesk, analysts say that if the Federal Reserve releases any dovish signals, it could be beneficial for Bitcoin. There is significant divergence in the market regarding whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Wednesday—CME FedWatch data shows a 70% probability of maintaining rates and a 30% probability of an unexpected 25 basis point hike. Block Scholes analyst Thahbib Rahman pointed out that the reduction in forward guidance usage by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has led to increased market uncertainty, making this FOMC meeting one of the most uncertain in years.Bitcoin has risen about 6% so far in July, while the S&P 500 has remained flat, and the semiconductor sector has dropped nearly 20%. K33 Research's research director Vetle Lunde stated that the Nasdaq had previously been strong and positions were stretched, with Bitcoin continuing to consolidate near multi-year lows, leading to a weakening correlation between the two. This week's FOMC meeting may have limited impact on BTC. Rahman stated, "Any dovish signals could drive Bitcoin to continue outperforming."

Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode released the report "Charting Crypto Q3 2026," maintaining a neutral outlook on the crypto market.The report shows that on-chain data indicates Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, but the Fed's hawkish stance, weak spot ETF demand, and geopolitical risks continue to pressure the market outlook.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Bitcoin market sentiment has shifted from bearish to bullish and has maintained this for the second week. A model that integrates multiple market data points shows that the Bitcoin status score has rebounded from a low of -42.9 on June 26 to +34.7. Over the past week, this score has remained in positive territory for more than 80% of the time, reaching a peak of +65.3 on July 10, indicating that the overall market sentiment has shifted from seller-dominated to buyer-strong.Currently, 79.4% of the multiple sub-indicators included in the model point in the same direction, significantly higher than this month's average of 57.3%, suggesting that there are no obvious contradictions among the data, and the current bullish signal is not noise. Moving forward, if the market sentiment score further rises above +50 and the consistency remains above 80%, the bullish trend will be further confirmed; if the score continues to fall below zero and consistency drops below 40%, the current trend will be considered invalid.

According to CoinDesk, in just the month of June, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $4 billion, led by BlackRock's IBIT, as funds shifted towards opportunities in AI trading and the SpaceX IPO. Bitcoin fell about 14% in the second quarter, dropping below $60,000, marking its third consecutive quarter of losses. However, this outflow pales in comparison to the $2 trillion private credit market. Redemption requests in private credit reached $15.6 billion in the second quarter, with 10 out of 16 business development companies exceeding the 5% quarterly cap, and most investors receiving only partial payouts. Fitch expects redemptions to continue in the coming months, and unmet requests will keep several companies under pressure.Bitcoin ETFs have strong liquidity, and outflows directly impact BTC prices; in contrast, private credit BDCs are illiquid long-term instruments. The simultaneous redemptions of both reflect widespread market concerns about liquidity and risk. The energy market is also sending signals of risk aversion, with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level since 1983. QCP Capital summarized: "Different sectors, same pattern: the market's buffer space is narrowing." It pointed out that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has bottomed out, Strategy has sold BTC for the first time to pay dividends, and private credit redemptions have surpassed thresholds, all indicating that risk assets face a more challenging environment.

BIT stated in the latest weekly market observation that Bitcoin has recovered most of its decline from June last week, re-establishing itself above the 200-week moving average and entering the key confirmation range of $63,000 to $66,000.Ethereum's weekly increase is even stronger, indicating that this round of rebound has broader market participation.

According to CoinDesk, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will testify before Congress for the first time on July 14 at 10 AM (Eastern Time), and traders are closely watching for signals regarding stablecoins, bank custody, and interest rate policy.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin developers are discussing the removal of the explicit Replace-by-Fee (RBF) signal from the Bitcoin Core wallet. Developer rkrux stated that since full-RBF has become the standard strategy, the BIP 125 RBF signal has become redundant and may leave unnecessary wallet chain fingerprints.Community member Murch noted that stopping the sending of replaceability signals is not simply about removing "fingerprints," as each sender still has to choose a sequence number for each input; currently, about 75% of transactions have used specific sequence numbers, primarily MAX-2. rkrux indicated that the default input sequence number should adopt best practices recognized by a broader wallet community.