bet

According to Decrypt, the price of Bitcoin remains around $80,350, with a short-term increase of only 0.8%, continuing to face pressure after multiple attempts to break through the $82,000 resistance level failed. This range is seen as a combined resistance level of the ETF cost line, the 200-day moving average, and the CME gap filling area. Although the U.S. CLARITY Act has passed the Senate Banking Committee, bringing positive expectations for crypto regulation, institutional funds continue to withdraw.Data shows that the net outflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has decreased to an average of -$88 million per day over the past seven days, marking the largest outflow since mid-February. Analysts believe that this round of selling pressure is more about "profit-taking" rather than panic selling. On a macro level, rising U.S. Treasury yields have become a core source of pressure. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen to about 4.52%, reaching a 10-month high, while the April CPI has increased by 3.8% year-on-year, the highest level in three years, further delaying market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.Analysts point out that geopolitical conflicts are driving up energy prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures, thereby weakening the appeal of risk assets. From an institutional perspective, some analysts believe that the current outflow of ETF funds is part of portfolio rebalancing rather than a trend-based withdrawal.The options market shows that Bitcoin faces significant resistance in the $82,000-$84,000 range, while $77,000 is a key support level. If the price falls below this range and leverage does not cool down, the market may enter a deleveraging phase, increasing the risk of a correction.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the prediction market Polymarket for the event "How many tweets will Elon Musk post between May 8 and May 15, 2026?", the "Yes" option in the sub-market "100-119" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 63.65% an hour ago to the current 41.05% (a fluctuation of 22.6%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

Aave stated that the first batch of rsETH has been transferred to LayerZero's OFT adapter, and cross-chain operations for rsETH between the mainnet and various L2s have been reopened.This progress means that the previously affected rsETH cross-chain channels have been restored for use, covering the Ethereum mainnet and L2 networks.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the market Polymarket. A large whale invested $184,268.46 in the event "SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909," specifically targeting "SSC Napoli." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 64%.

On May 10, Vitalik Buterin published a research article advocating that cryptocurrency payments need to shift from pseudonymity to default privacy, proposing the use of zero-knowledge proof (ZK) transactions to replace standard transfers, allowing users to prove payment validity without exposing their full balance or transaction history.Vitalik specifically pointed out that in the era of agents, autonomous AI agents need to pay service fees (such as LLM API fees) without leaving traceable footprints. By using recursive SNARKs and ZK APIs for points, Ethereum Layer 2 can handle privacy payments at the same speed and cost as transparent transactions. The proposal also includes selective disclosure and proof of innocence mechanisms, allowing users to provide specific proofs to compliance agencies or tax authorities without disclosing data to the public, in response to anti-money laundering regulatory requirements.Vitalik believes that the public transparency of blockchain is the main obstacle preventing cryptocurrency payments from replacing traditional payments, and the ZK payment standard aims to make privacy a default feature.

According to Cointelegraph, Google's parent company Alphabet is about to surpass Nvidia to become the world's most valuable company. Since last October, Alphabet's stock price has risen by 43%, while Nvidia has only increased by 6.3%.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted to occur in the market Polymarket. A large whale invested $158,628.58 in "FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF," specifically targeting "FC Barcelona." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 59%.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the market Polymarket. A large whale invested $192,493.44 in a single bet on "Arsenal" in the event of "West Ham United vs Arsenal." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this bet is 36%.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the market Polymarket. A large whale invested $212,520 in a single bet on the event "Nottingham Forest Football Club vs Newcastle United Football Club," specifically targeting "Newcastle United Football Club." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this bet is 46%.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the market Polymarket. A large whale fund made a single purchase of $79,644.8 on "Arsenal Football Club" for the event "West Ham United Football Club vs Arsenal Football Club." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 64%.

According to Jinshi reports, this week, significant signs of peace have emerged in the US-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, greatly easing geopolitical risks. Next week, it is worth paying close attention to whether these two geopolitical conflicts can further cool down. In addition, next week's macro events will focus on the US April CPI data, as detailed below:Tuesday 15:15, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a panel discussion on monetary policy;Tuesday 20:15, US ADP employment change for the week ending April 25;Tuesday 20:30, US April CPI data;Wednesday 04:30, US API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 8;Wednesday 20:30, US April PPI year-on-year and month-on-month;Friday 05:30, Fed Governor Barr will deliver a speech;Friday 21:15, US April industrial production month-on-month.Finally, next week the Federal Reserve will undergo significant personnel changes. Nominee Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to be confirmed by the Senate on Monday and will officially take over from Powell on May 15.In terms of US stocks, as of this Friday, a new round of surges has pushed the S&P 500 index up 8% cumulatively in 2026, continuing to rise on the basis of achieving double-digit returns for three consecutive years. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has risen nearly 13% year-to-date, with both major indices reaching all-time highs. Although the first quarter earnings season is nearing its end, corporate reports will still be a key driver of stock prices in the coming days.AI

According to Forbes, Bitcoin bulls have added a macro narrative. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that the $39 trillion debt crisis in the U.S. could lead to a long-term devaluation or even collapse of the dollar, while JPMorgan analysts believe that the market is witnessing a rotation from gold to Bitcoin in the currency devaluation trade.Dalio stated that the current annual spending in the U.S. is about $7 trillion, with revenues of only about $5 trillion, and the long-term fiscal deficit and debt expansion are nearing historically dangerous levels. He believes that during similar periods, fiat currencies tend to depreciate continuously, while gold benefits.Meanwhile, JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out that as the conflict in Iran escalates, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has continued to exceed that of gold ETFs, with some funds viewing Bitcoin as digital gold and a hedge against dollar devaluation.The report mentioned that since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the price of Bitcoin has risen by about 30%, although it is still below the historical high of $126,000 in 2025. Notable investors, including Stanley Druckenmiller and Elon Musk, have also expressed concerns about the long-term status of the dollar as a reserve currency.

According to monitoring by Hyperinsight, a certain whale made 14 consecutive long trades yesterday, but none were profitable, all recorded losses. In the past hour, the address has shifted to shorting, opening a ZEC short position of 2000 coins with 10x leverage, with a position size of approximately 1.2 million dollars, an average opening price of 614.9 dollars, and a current floating profit of 20%.

According to the Daily Economic News, DeepSeek is rarely launching a massive financing plan, simultaneously attracting two major companies, Tencent and Alibaba. Previously, there were media reports that Alibaba and DeepSeek had a breakdown in negotiations. In response, an insider revealed exclusively to reporters on May 9 that Alibaba should not have been in negotiations.

According to the trading analysis platform Polymarket Polyinsider, the address 0xc6dd...89F made a precise bet on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire event, achieving a daily profit of $34,000, setting a recent best performance. This address belongs to a high-win-rate "fundamental" trader, with a historical total win rate of 70.4%, and has realized a cumulative profit of approximately $78,800.Data analysis shows that today's significant profit is mainly due to its accurate judgment on the event "Russia and Ukraine will cease fire before June 30, 2026." This event has been successfully settled with a "YES" result. The trader not only recorded a daily trading volume of over $1 million but also successfully locked in the largest single profit in recent times. As of now, this address has accumulated a total of 2,526 trades, with a historical maximum drawdown controlled at approximately $14,000.

According to Gate market data, on May 8, U.S. stocks opened with the Dow Jones up 0.38%, the S&P 500 index up 0.44%, and the Nasdaq up 0.54%. Storage concept stocks performed strongly, with Micron Technology up 5.5% and SanDisk up 4.5%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.1%, with Baidu up 6%.

According to Jinshi News, bond traders are increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve's next policy move may be an interest rate hike rather than a cut. Swap contracts linked to central bank rate decisions indicate that the market expects a probability of over 50% for the Fed to raise rates before cutting them, prior to April next year. Lawrence Gillum, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at LPL Financial, stated that the possibility of a rate cut this year still exists, but as the duration of the Iran conflict extends, this possibility will gradually decrease.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Williams stated that the breakeven point for the job market may now be between 0 and 50,000 jobs per month.