analysts

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart stated on the X platform that the 2x leveraged Cerebras Systems ETF (ticker: CBRG) has officially begun trading, while its underlying asset CBRS only started trading the previous afternoon, meaning that the launch of the leveraged ETF was completed just hours apart, setting a record for the rapid product launch pace.This "fast-follow" ETF issuance model is accelerating, and in the future, leveraged ETFs around non-public or high-demand assets such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI may also emerge with similar rapid replication issuance paths, reflecting a significant increase in the productization speed of the ETF market for new asset exposures.

According to The Block, the Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) under the crypto asset management company 21Shares was officially listed on Tuesday, with a trading volume of $1.8 million on its first day. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart commented that it was "very robust, far better than the typical ETF first-day performance."It is reported that THYP is the first ETF product that tracks the Hyperliquid (HYPE) spot, allowing investors to gain exposure to HYPE tokens without directly holding the tokens. 21Shares stated that it plans to stake its held HYPE assets in the future. Additionally, Bitwise and Grayscale are also applying for HYPE-related ETF products.

The Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator from CryptoQuant has recently turned green for the first time since 2023. On-chain analyst Julio Moreno stated that this usually indicates the market is switching from a bear market structure to a recovery phase. Moreno pointed out that historically, when this indicator exits the bear market zone and enters the "Early Bull" range, it often means that the worst adjustment phase has ended and the market structure begins to repair. However, several analysts emphasize that this indicator is more suitable for judging market phase transitions rather than precise trading signals. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, stated that the greatest significance of such indicators lies in determining "whether Bitcoin has stopped behaving like a bear market asset," and real confirmation still requires sustained demand, improved liquidity, and prices stabilizing at key levels. Currently, Bitcoin has not effectively broken through the $82,000 resistance level. Although it has rebounded about 35% from a low of around $60,000 in February this year, the market remains in a tug-of-war state. Moreno believes that to truly confirm a bull market signal, Bitcoin needs to digest some current "weakness" indicators while facing pressure from a neutral greed-fear index and a complex macro environment. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Bitcoin has completed a phase of bottoming around $60,000 this year. He stated that once it breaks through $90,000, the market may enter an "explosive phase," targeting the previous high of $126,000. Meanwhile, some analysts also remind that on-chain indicators like MVRV and NUPL are essentially more aligned with a "behavioral cycle framework" and should not be seen as absolute predictive tools.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas revealed in a post on X platform that the prediction market ETF has not been launched as originally planned, possibly due to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) deciding to further review the related products. Currently, the delay "is not a fatal issue," but rather seems like the regulatory agency wants to conduct additional checks on the disclosure documents.He pointed out that these products are groundbreaking, and once approved for listing, they will set an important regulatory precedent for prediction market ETFs. Therefore, it is understandable that the SEC wants to spend more time reviewing, and the market is still waiting for further developments.

MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe stated that Bitcoin may not need a new story or catalyst to drive it back to $100,000—Bitcoin has not reached that price for nearly five months. In a post on X on Friday, van de Poppe posed the question, "What kind of narrative can push Bitcoin to $100,000?" He then stated, "No narrative is needed to push the price." He added, "Prices rise, and narratives will emerge. That’s why relying solely on math, statistics, and logic is enough to win, and why the current ranges of Bitcoin are still good accumulation zones."Many participants in the crypto market still believe that Bitcoin needs a strong narrative to drive prices upward. Recently, the market's focus has been on potential catalysts such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, regulatory progress in the U.S., and inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Some participants also pointed to the potential passage of the CLARITY Act as a factor that could drive Bitcoin upward. However, veteran trader Peter Brandt stated that the CLARITY Act is a positive step for the industry but is unlikely to be the main catalyst for pushing Bitcoin prices higher. Brandt said, "Is this a macro development that shakes the world? No. It's certainly necessary, but it is not an event that should redefine value." Meanwhile, White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt stated this week at the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas that a "major announcement" regarding President Trump's Bitcoin reserves will be made in a few weeks.

According to Jinshi News, Asian stock markets are expected to perform weakly when they open on Tuesday, as investors turn their attention to the earnings reports of U.S. tech giants with a total market capitalization of nearly $16 trillion. Walter Todd, president and chief investment officer of Greenwood Capital Associates, stated that the U.S. stock market has rebounded to historical highs, seemingly ignoring the ongoing geopolitical risks, mainly due to upward revisions in earnings expectations and improved market sentiment. He warned that any cracks in optimistic expectations could pose significant risks to market trends.

According to Jin Shi reports, the U.S. stock market fell on Thursday amid volatile trading, as hopes for a quick resolution to the Iran conflict gradually faded. Analyst Jay Hatfield stated that investors are struggling to digest mixed earnings reports, and concerns about the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence on the software industry have resurfaced. He pointed out that the market had previously risen significantly, and some investors are looking to reduce their positions, using the war as an excuse is not necessarily a bad thing.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that Bitcoin ETF fund flows have turned positive across the board, stating "all rolling periods we track are positive," marking the first time in several months. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT has seen cumulative inflows of about $3 billion, placing it in the top 1% of all ETF fund flow performances. However, Eric Balchunas pointed out that there are still several billion dollars needed to return to the historical cumulative fund flow high of $62.8 billion, but at least it indicates that the sentiment around Bitcoin ETF funds has clearly improved and market demand is recovering.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that BlackRock's spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund IBIT has been rising almost daily for the past three weeks, increasing by about 3.5% again, and has accumulated a rise of about 19% since the market sell-off triggered by the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. As concerns about geopolitical impacts have eased, fund sentiment has clearly recovered, driving Bitcoin-related ETFs to continue strengthening.

TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza reiterated a buy rating on Bitcoin reserve company MSTR and raised the target price to $385.

Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on the X platform that Bitcoin ETFs have once again recorded a solid week of inflows, and overall funds have officially turned positive. Although the previous outflows were not significant, against the backdrop of limited price increase momentum, funds have still successfully "filled the gap," demonstrating strong resilience.

The latest U.S. PCE inflation data largely met expectations, easing market uncertainty, and Bitcoin's price stabilized after previously reaching around $73,000. Data shows that the core PCE year-on-year is 3%, and month-on-month is 0.4%. The market is also influenced by the easing situation between the U.S. and Iran, but analysts point out that the current PCE data has not yet reflected potential energy price shocks.Although the inflation data did not trigger significant market fluctuations, investors remain cautious about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for this year. Economist Mohamed El-Erian stated that compared to PCE, the upcoming CPI data to be released this week will have a more critical impact on the market, especially against the backdrop of oil price fluctuations. On the trading front, the market remains in a volatile range, with liquidity mainly concentrated in the $69,000 to $76,000 range. Trader Michaël van de Poppe believes that as long as the key support range holds, Bitcoin is expected to start a new round of upward momentum, targeting $80,000.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently priced at about $71,200, and Ethereum is at $2,185, with the overall market maintaining a range-bound fluctuation. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone warned that if Bitcoin cannot recover to $75,000, there is a risk of dropping to $10,000; Fundstrat founder Tom Lee believes that the market bottom has been established.In terms of derivatives, Bitcoin futures open interest has risen to 726,000 contracts, with the 24-hour CVD being positive for two consecutive days, and the funding rate slightly above zero, indicating an overall bullish tendency; the CVD and funding rates for ETH, XRP, and Solana are slightly negative. The volatility index continues to decline, with the market expecting price fluctuations of only about 2.5% around Friday's inflation data.Regarding altcoins, MANA and AERO each rose by about 6%, but MANA's increase was accompanied by a 25% surge in open interest, indicating it is mainly driven by leverage. The market is focused on whether Bitcoin can effectively break through $75,000 and establish support; if achieved, it may trigger a rotation of funds into oversold altcoin sectors.

Analyst Alicharts updates multiple long-term bottom indicator signals for Bitcoin to reference Bitcoin's bottom points.Key support levels include around $63,111 shown by URPD, the trend line guarding for nearly 10 years at $56,000-$60,000, the structural bottom of CVDD at $47,960, and the extreme pain zone of MVRV at $43,647. Alicharts suggests that investors diversify funds into areas between $63,000 and $36,000, rather than precisely predicting a single bottom. Currently, the market is mostly in a wait-and-see or distribution phase, suitable for macro rebound layouts.

According to Cointelegraph, Morgan Stanley has submitted an S-1 amendment for its Bitcoin ETF again, and analysts expect this to be the last update before the fund's launch next week.

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas posted on social media that the T-Strive Digital Credit ETF, jointly launched by Tuttle and Strive, has submitted new application documents. This ETF will hold preferred securities of DAT company.The T-Strive Digital Credit ETF is a basket of holding-type products, with underlying assets being the preferred securities of multiple Digital Asset Trusts (DATs). It can be understood as a "DAT preferred securities portfolio ETF," rather than just betting on a single issuer.

Crypto analyst Leshka.eth expressed the view that the recent price trend of Ethereum is showing a technical pattern similar to historical "bull market traps," with a risk of further decline in the short term, potentially targeting $1200, representing a potential drop of about 40% from current levels.The technical indicators show that the Supertrend indicator on the ETH daily chart has failed to sustain its previous two "bullish" signals, which subsequently triggered significant pullbacks of 45% and 48%. A similar structure is now appearing again at the critical level of about $1990; if it breaks below this level, it could trigger a new round of accelerated decline.The fundamentals and capital flows are also weak. On a macro level, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and recession expectations are suppressing risk appetite, while the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have significantly shifted further out; in terms of capital flows, there has been a net outflow of about $300 million from U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recently, and on-chain demand has dropped to a 16-month low.On-chain data shows that the number of large holding addresses (≥10,000 ETH) has stagnated since peaking, and there are also no significant signs of accumulation from "whale" and "shark" addresses in the 1,000 to 10,000 ETH and 100 to 1,000 ETH ranges, respectively, indicating an overall state of distribution and wait-and-see. In the absence of strong buying support, if key support levels are breached, the ETH price may face further downward pressure.

According to Forbes, Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro stated in a research report that the decline in Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market has roughly reached the historical average level from peak to trough in this cycle. In recent weeks, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency-related stocks have shown volatility but are trending towards stability. However, Yaro warned that trading volume may decline further, and in a low trading volume environment, Bitcoin prices are prone to significant fluctuations, making any rebound difficult to sustain.He pointed out that trading volume typically remains at a low for about three months before showing a noticeable recovery. If trading volume continues to decline, cryptocurrency companies' revenues may decrease by 2% and profits by 4% in 2026. Goldman Sachs currently rates Robinhood, Figure Technologies, and Coinbase as "buy," with the stock prices of these three companies down at least 50% from their historical highs. Yaro stated that digital asset-related targets are presenting increasingly attractive entry points.Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon revealed last month at the World Liberty Forum held at Trump's Mar-a-Lago in Florida that he holds a small amount of Bitcoin, marking a shift in his stance for 2024. This week, Bitcoin prices fell back to around $60,000, and Trade Nation senior market analyst David Morrison noted that Bitcoin previously faced resistance and retreated around $72,000. Currently, the daily MACD indicator is flattening at a neutral level, and the short-term trend direction remains unclear.

Analysts say that Michael Saylor's strategy for MSTR involves purchasing more than 30,000 BTC this week, with the next target being 800,000 BTC.