analysts

Analyst Jukan posted on platform X, stating that Nvidia chips are currently still in short supply, but to maintain the premium for chip scarcity, the company needs to continue supporting emerging cloud service providers (Neocloud). If the new CEO adopts a more cautious attitude towards this business model, it may lead to pressure on GPU spot prices, a decline in cloud service providers' profit margins, and prompt them to turn to alternatives such as AMD or Google TPU, thereby weakening Nvidia's market dominance and supply chain control.Jukan stated that Jensen Huang has been working hard to maintain Nvidia's growth flywheel, which not only helps to expand chip demand but also ensures the computing power utilization of emerging cloud service providers. Huang originally hoped to gradually let go once the emerging cloud service providers could independently order the next generation of GPUs, but it is currently uncertain whether the successor CEO is willing to wait.

The $6.3 billion security incident at the cryptocurrency exchange Binance involves affected assets with a cumulative value across 10 blockchains. CertiK analyst Jonathan Riss stated that public blockchain records show a hot wallet on Ethereum was repeatedly emptied by attackers after new deposits arrived; on-chain records cannot reveal Binance's internal signature controls and transfer limits.Jonathan Riss pointed out that if the limits are executed by the application that initiated the signature request, those limits may be bypassed if the application is compromised; limits executed independently by the signature system may restrict transfers. Binance previously stated that attackers transferred funds out of the regular withdrawal process through an internal wallet signature service.Idan Ofrat, co-founder and Chief Product Officer of the crypto asset custody company Fireblocks, stated that exchange hot wallets typically hold enough funds to cover expected withdrawals for a few days, often representing a low single-digit percentage of managed assets. Alex Tobol, Chief Technology Officer of Walt, stated that replenishing funds from cold wallets to hot wallets should require separate fund management decisions and manual approvals.

According to CNBC, after the release of Alphabet's third-quarter financial report, the stock price fell more than 12% to $285, with a market value shrinking by nearly $500 billion. Despite Google Cloud's revenue growing 103% year-over-year, the market is still focused on earnings per share falling short of expectations and the negative free cash flow amid ongoing investments in AI infrastructure.Mike Khouw stated in a CNBC column that the fundamentals of Alphabet's core business remain intact, but a short-term rapid rebound faces two obstacles. First, multiple institutions have downgraded ratings, target prices, or future earnings forecasts. He pointed out that historically, stocks that have experienced concentrated downgrades tend to underperform the market or trade sideways in the following 30 days, and institutional rebalancing can also limit upward momentum. Second, the gap down after the earnings report further damaged the technical pattern.In terms of technical indicators, Alphabet's RSI has dropped to just over 20, and the MACD sell signal has strengthened. However, Khouw believes that with the stock price close to the 52-week low of $270.70, combined with an extremely oversold condition, further declines may be limited.In terms of trading strategy, Khouw suggested using a sell wide strangle options strategy to cope with the anticipated range-bound fluctuations. He believes that continued selling in the overall market poses the main downside risk, while unexpected positive news driving the stock price up rapidly could threaten the bullish call option selling side of the strategy.

Bitcoin News posted on the X platform that the cryptocurrency exchange platform Kraken stated that users are experiencing issues connecting to the platform and submitting orders via the web, mobile, and API services.After the Aave market was paused, an analyst cited Kraken's alleged exposure of over 130 million dollars, speculating that it may face liquidity pressure. Currently, no liquidity crisis has been confirmed.

Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that short-term holders currently hold approximately 4.08 million Bitcoins, the highest since mid-June. This is an increase of about 422,000 since the low on July 29, representing a growth of about 12%. In the first two weeks of October, there was an increase of about 154,000, and in the past week, an increase of about 48,000. He noted that new buyers mostly entered the market in the range of approximately $82,000 to $86,000.As of now, the average cost for short-term holders is about $74,900, with unrealized profit buffer narrowing from about 16% to around 10%. Axel Adler Jr mentioned that $74,900 is the breakeven point for this group, and prices have consistently remained above this cost since August 20. If it falls below this cost, the group will collectively enter into unrealized losses, or increase selling pressure.

Blockworks analyst Jake Koch-Gallup published a rebuttal to the viewpoint that Ethereum is losing its liquidity moat, arguing that despite the challenges to ETH's value capture ability and stablecoin market share, its reserve asset characteristics, Layer 2 ecosystem, and institutional adoption still constitute a long-term competitive advantage.In response to the issue of low on-chain revenue for Ethereum, Jake pointed out that ETH's valuation depends not only on actual economic value (REV) but also includes reserve asset and collateral premiums, with ETH's market capitalization currently about 1,100 times the REV of the past 12 months. Additionally, the development of Layer 2 networks such as Robinhood Chain and Base can still strengthen the Ethereum ecosystem, rather than indicating that funds and applications are completely leaving Ethereum. Jake also noted that Ethereum currently accounts for about 65% of the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi, with approximately 45% of the on-chain managed scale in real-world assets (RWA), while spot ETFs and corporate treasuries collectively hold about 13% of the total ETH supply, and about 36% of the ETH supply is currently staked.Although Ethereum's stablecoin market share has gradually faced dilution pressure from around 51%, Jake believes that as the overall stablecoin market expands, its absolute scale may continue to grow. However, Jake also acknowledged that relying solely on ETH's reserve asset premium, without sufficient revenue and value return mechanisms, raises questions about its valuation sustainability.

A Reuters survey shows that fixed income strategists expect U.S. Treasury yields to decline in the coming months. Despite the 10-year Treasury yield recording its largest quarterly increase since 1994, strategists remain bearish on yields. The survey indicates that the median expectation is for the 10-year Treasury yield to drop to 5% by the end of the year, 4.9% in six months, and 4.75% in one year.

NVIDIA's stock price reached a new high for the first time in four months, closing at $237.58 on Monday, with a market capitalization of approximately $5.76 trillion.Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson stated that the market finds it hard to ignore the disconnect between its growth prospects and valuation. Societe Generale analyst Karl Ackerman raised the target price to $345 per share, indicating a 45% upside potential.

Citrini analyst Jukan cited Anthropic-related data from TickerTrends and expressed doubts. The data shows that as of September 24, 2026, Anthropic's annual recurring revenue (ARR) is approximately $76.8 billion, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of only 1.8%; OpenAI's annual recurring revenue is approximately $50.44 billion, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 13.4%.Jukan believes that even based on this set of data, Anthropic's growth rate has clearly declined, OpenAI's growth is also slowing down, and he questions the reliability of TickerTrends data.

According to Lookonchain, Strategy transferred 3,568 BTC in the past 9 hours. Arkham analyst Emmett Gallic stated that these transactions were neither sales nor external transfers, but rather normal fund allocations within the Fidelity custody system.Fidelity treats all BTC deposited by clients as interchangeable assets and will transfer funds as needed. The relevant addresses have been marked as Fidelity addresses on Arkham.

Cryptocurrency analyst @AxelAdlerJr posted that after August 19, the number of bitcoins held by long-term holders has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks, but the pace of reduction in the last 30 days has significantly slowed from 105,900 BTC on August 30 to 21,700 BTC on September 20 (nearly five times slower).In addition, the amount of bitcoins held by long-term holders decreased by 47,800 BTC last week. LTH SOPR data shows that most of them were sold at a loss.

According to CoinDesk, the U.S. SEC has launched a five-year innovation exemption that provides a pathway for eligible tokenized U.S. stocks to be traded through automated market makers (AMM) on public blockchains. Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Citizens believe that Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle could become early beneficiaries of this policy.The new framework requires tokens to retain shareholder rights such as dividends and voting rights while imposing limits on the number of stocks and trading volume that trading platforms can offer. Goldman Sachs stated that Coinbase's existing tokenized stock products already possess several of the required features, and its institutional custody business and Coinbase Tokenize may also benefit.However, Coinbase's current trading platform uses a centralized limit order book, and to operate a trading venue directly under the exemption, it will still need to build AMM infrastructure or route trades to decentralized trading platforms on Base.Currently, the stock tokens offered by Robinhood for markets outside the U.S. are derivatives that only provide price exposure and do not possess the complete shareholder rights required by the framework, thus requiring further adjustments to the product. Robinhood has previously stated plans to add 1:1 redemption and voting rights features for stocks.Analysts also believe that an increase in on-chain securities trading may drive demand for tokenized cash, benefiting Circle indirectly, with USDC potentially being used for settlement and collateral in on-chain markets.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that Bitcoin ETFs have advantages over gold ETFs, including the fact that the Bitcoin investor demographic is younger; as the market matures, volatility decreases, and correlation with other assets stabilizes, Bitcoin will attract more large institutional adoption.In addition, Bitcoin ETFs have stronger market enthusiasm and sales resources, with dozens of wholesalers familiar with both the crypto market and traditional investors currently promoting and educating the market, while gold ETFs lack similar promotional strength.

According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts stated that the Clarity Act is "not completely dead" after failing the procedural vote in the Senate, but the window for passing it before the end of this congressional session is "extremely narrow."Analysts expect the focus to shift to the rule-making of the SEC and CFTC, noting that the durability of institutional rules is not as strong as laws passed by Congress.

StoneX analyst Mark Palmer pointed out in a report to clients that the rapid growth of Robinhood Chain is driven by four main factors, including the strong brand effect of the brokerage, the permissionless design, subsidized gas fees, and the continuously strengthening flywheel effect between meme coins and tokenized stocks. Since its launch on July 1, the TVL of Robinhood Chain has approached $1 billion, with a single-day DEX trading volume reaching $1.88 billion on Sunday, accounting for more than half of Uniswap's total trading volume.Palmer stated that the appeal of Robinhood Chain is "impressive by any standard." First is the brand effect of Robinhood, including the viral marketing effect brought by CEO Vlad Tenev's attention to the CASHCAT token account; second is the permissionless design, which allows developers to freely issue tokens, with Pons reportedly facilitating about 10,000 token issuances daily, and approximately 25,000 on September 2; third is the incentive economy, where Robinhood subsidizes gas fees for wallet exchanges over $5.Finally, there is the flywheel effect between meme coins and tokenized stocks, with a typical example being the token issuance platform Long.xyz built on the chain, which allows community tokens to be paired with Robinhood's tokenized stocks for issuance.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that short-term holders of Bitcoin, holding for no more than 6 months, have transferred a total of 549,300 BTC to exchanges.During the same period, the price of Bitcoin rose from $64,000 to $78,000, an increase of about 21%; after reaching a local high of $81,800, it fell by about 4.1%, but still retained most of the gains.

According to Darkfost monitoring, the activity of the OG group holding Bitcoin for over 5 years has significantly increased recently, with the 90-day moving average of their spent UTXOs rising to 1500 BTC, doubling from the levels in May. The consolidation period seems to have raised concerns among almost all types of investors, including the most experienced OG group. However, these transfers may not necessarily indicate selling; some could be due to reasons such as the Coldcard incident, transferring Bitcoin to safer storage methods.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Benczkowski vowed at the beginning of this week to launch an "economic assault" against Iran and its trading partners, once again attempting to end the war. However, by the weekend, countries with ties to Iran have so far dismissed this threat, and analysts are disappointed with the actions taken by the U.S.As the week nears its end, the U.S. announced plans to sanction the branch of Egypt's Misr Bank located in the UAE. Previously, Benczkowski had warned that the world would see "significant news of a financial institution being sanctioned before the end of this week," making this move far below expectations.Alex Zerden, a former U.S. Treasury official and founder of Capitol Peak Strategies, stated, "The actions publicly taken by the U.S. Treasury this week do not match the prior hype. The 'economic exile action' continues the restrictive economic measures against Iran that have been in place for 47 years, but it does not provide a clearer path for how this current action will achieve economic or military victory."

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that gold and Bitcoin ETFs have returned to the top ten funds by trading volume, which may indicate that "devaluation trades" are replacing the AI craze.Balchunas pointed out that this phenomenon reflects the market's capital flow shifting from AI-related assets to asset classes like gold and Bitcoin, which are seen as hedges against currency devaluation.

Analysts at the cryptocurrency research firm CryptoQuant believe that Bitcoin has emerged from the bear market, but a short-term pullback may occur. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted on social media that Bitcoin has entered the early stage of a bull market and pointed out that the current trend is consistent with the market conditions before the last bull market.CryptoQuant's research shows that the inflow of funds to derivatives exchanges has resumed, confirming that traders have entered a risk-on mode, which has historically marked the beginning of a new bull market. The firm's analyst Theophiluspep stated that while Bitcoin is entering a bull market, spot demand, ETF fund flows, and market momentum have turned bullish, while high profit-taking, inflows to exchanges, and overbought conditions suggest a potential short-term cooling.Bitcoin continued to rise last week, increasing by 22% over the past 7 days, with the latest price at $78,716, briefly touching $81,160 on Monday. Previously, in June and July, Bitcoin mostly traded below $65,000. U.S. investors reversed direction last week and bought Bitcoin ETFs, achieving the best weekly performance since October, with data from Farside Investors showing that related funds managed by institutions such as BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, and Morgan Stanley saw an inflow of $1.9 billion in new funds. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury announced last week that it would at least double its long-term Treasury bond repurchase scale, leading to a decline in yields, with Bitcoin and gold rising in tandem.