analysis

According to The Block, a K33 research report states that the 30-day average trading volume of BTC/USDT perpetual contracts on Binance and Bybit has dropped to $10.8 billion, the lowest level since 2023, with only 5% of trading days recording lower volumes. Meanwhile, the average daily trading volume of Bitcoin spot has decreased by 18% from last week to $1.8 billion, and the 7-day volatility has also fallen to 0.6%, the lowest since Christmas 2025.K33 research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that low trading activity creates a self-reinforcing "hibernation cycle" in the market. Notably, the open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains high, with an average of about 300,000 BTC from June to August, above the average for 2025-2026, indicating a higher risk of liquidation-driven volatility.The market is currently awaiting the release of the U.S. July CPI data on Wednesday, with economists expecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% in CPI and a year-on-year increase of 2.5% in core CPI. CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September is about 50%. Bitcoin has been oscillating between $60,000 and $80,000 for six consecutive months, down about 50% from the historical high of October 2025.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a themed live broadcast today at 20:00 titled "Non-Farm Payrolls Surprise Ignites Rate Cut Trading: Which Will Break Through First Among U.S. Stocks, Gold, and BTC?" At that time, crypto KOLs such as Pump Pump Superman, Xiao Zhi, 77, and Grace will be invited to attend, discussing the unexpected changes in non-farm data, the rising expectations for rate cuts in the market, and the interlinked trends of the three major assets: U.S. stocks, gold, and BTC. They will analyze market trading opportunities and potential risks under changes in macro liquidity.

Bitfinex's latest report indicates that Bitcoin buying is returning, but the current rebound still mainly relies on improvements in the macroeconomic environment rather than catalysts from the cryptocurrency market itself.

Analyst Murphy stated that the BTC supply concentration has risen to 14.8%, approaching the high-risk zone of 15%. The risk here refers to volatility rather than the direction of price changes; the supply concentration itself does not indicate direction.Murphy noted that based on historical data, a pattern has been observed: when the supply concentration curve begins to turn downward, if the BTC price has been rising beforehand, the probability of continuing to rise afterward is greater; conversely, if it has been falling, the probability of continuing to fall is greater. However, the supply concentration is still on the rise and has not yet turned, so it is currently impossible to determine which direction the probability of movement will be greater after the turn. What can be confirmed is that risk is accumulating and volatility is brewing.

Research institution SemiAnalysis released an analysis stating that SpaceX is expected to build approximately 10GW of AI data center capacity by the end of 2027. If 50% of this is used for inference services, with annual revenue exceeding $10 billion per GW, the annualized revenue could reach $300 billion. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk stated in the first earnings report that a "conservative estimate" suggests an additional 6-8GW will be added in 2027, with the actual figure possibly exceeding 10GW.SemiAnalysis's inference simulator shows that when running on the GB300 cluster at current startup cloud prices (about $3/GPU hour), leading model companies like OpenAI and Anthropic could generate annual inference revenue exceeding $10 billion per GW, with annual costs around $12 billion. Microsoft, with full access to OpenAI models and without bearing training costs, can also capture revenue of the same scale. The analysis points out that Microsoft has signed contracts for 10GW of data centers (total value exceeding $300 billion) since 2026, with a 90-day cancellation clause, significantly reducing signing risks.Regarding SpaceX's construction progress, SemiAnalysis believes Musk will significantly shorten the construction cycle by using onsite gas power generation, bypassing large power transformers, parallel construction, and shortening the debugging process. The Southaven plant in Tennessee expanded from 27 turbines (approximately 495MW) in February to 69 turbines (1.7GW) in July, and the "MiniHard" project can be completed in about 5 months with 450-500MW. However, the 10GW target still faces multiple challenges such as land approvals, gas supply, and equipment delivery. This analysis is based on model simulations, and actual implementation still carries uncertainties.

The four major life insurance companies in Japan (Nippon Life, Dai-ichi Life, Sumitomo Life, Meiji Yasuda) reported a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7% in domestic bond holdings' unrealized losses for the second quarter of 2026, reaching a record $96 billion, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of increase, with total unrealized losses growing by more than twice during this period. Japanese life insurance companies typically hold government bonds and other securities to maturity to match long-term insurance liabilities. In May of this year, the yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds broke 4.0% for the first time since this bond was issued in 1999, raising market concerns that the Kishida government may increase fiscal spending. Analysts point out that if there is a surge in policy cancellations, insurance companies may be forced to sell their holdings prematurely to meet payouts, which would put pressure on their portfolios and earnings. The pressure facing Japanese financial institutions is intensifying.

Bitcoin's recent volatility has nearly disappeared, but market risks have not been alleviated. Data shows that there has been no outflow of funds from the spot Bitcoin ETF, with a cumulative net inflow of approximately $754 million. However, the price of Bitcoin remains around $64,700, while the options market is focused on downside protection near $62,000 and $63,000.Market signals are showing divergence: on one hand, demand for spot ETFs is rebounding; on the other hand, derivatives traders are positioning themselves for a potential pullback, especially on the eve of the release of the latest U.S. employment data. However, from the overall position structure, the market still leans bullish. Bitcoin call options account for about 60.7% of total open contracts, indicating that investors' long-term expectations remain positive, although recent trading has been more concentrated on short-term risk hedging. Meanwhile, the cost of volatility protection is at a low level. The DVOL index from Deribit, which reflects the expected volatility of Bitcoin over the next 30 days, is currently around 35, a significant drop from the high of 90 earlier this year, indicating that the market believes the likelihood of significant volatility in the short term is limited.However, U.S. macro data could disrupt this balance. The market expects that non-farm payrolls in the U.S. will increase by about 97,500 in July, up from 57,000 in June, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%. If the employment data is stronger than expected, it could push U.S. Treasury yields higher and strengthen expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes; if the data is weak, it could lower yields but also exacerbate concerns about slowing economic growth. Currently, the Bitcoin market shows a pattern of "ETF funds supporting spot, options market guarding against declines," and potential risks in a low-volatility environment still need to be monitored. In a market with low participation and insufficient liquidity, even small changes in supply or demand could lead to significant price fluctuations.

The research organization SemiAnalysis released an analysis indicating that Google DeepMind is no longer among the leading AI laboratories. A week prior, DeepMind co-founder Demis Hassabis stepped back from daily operations, and key members such as Google Chief Scientist Jeff Dean and Gemini co-lead Oriol Vinyals left to establish a new lab called Discovery Loop. The analysis suggests that the long-term struggle within Google over computing power allocation between Gemini and GCP has concluded with GCP emerging victorious.SemiAnalysis stated that Gemini 3.5 Pro has been canceled, and Gemini 3.6 Flash's performance is inferior to that of leading Chinese open-source models and Grok 4.5. Currently, Gemini has fallen to the 8th or 9th position in the large model rankings. Meanwhile, GCP is selling a large number of TPUs to competitors like Anthropic, having secured long-term leasing and sales contracts for hundreds of thousands of TPUs over the past nine months. The Tokenomics model estimates that Gemini's own ARR is about $12 billion, while GCP's third-party AI cloud service revenue is expected to exceed $73 billion by the end of 2027, with TPU system sales contributing an additional over $120 billion. GCP's latest quarterly growth rate is 82%, and it is expected to accelerate to over 100% by 2027 due to TPU system sales, contributing approximately $3 to Google's earnings per share.

The Kobeissi Letter stated that hedge funds net bought $4.8 billion in U.S. stocks last week, marking the second-largest single-week buying scale since 2008. Based on the total market capitalization of the S&P 500, this buying scale ranks 24th in history.During the same period, institutional investors net sold $3.8 billion, ending four consecutive weeks of net buying, with their average net buying scale over the past four weeks dropping to $3.9 billion.Retail investors slightly net sold $200 million during the same period, with their average net buying scale over the past four weeks decreasing to $600 million. Hedge funds are significantly buying U.S. stocks again.

According to Bloomberg, SpaceX's stock performed relatively steadily on Thursday, following the expiration of a lock-up agreement that restricted insiders from selling shares, involving the release of approximately 911.5 million shares, valued at about $100 billion based on current estimates.Trading data shows that SpaceX's stock price fluctuated within a range of less than 3% in the early morning, as the market digested the potential selling pressure from this large-scale share release. In the first 30 minutes after the market opened, the trading volume approached 93 million shares, accounting for about 40% of the total trading volume from the previous trading day.This release occurred shortly after SpaceX's first financial report was published. Previously, due to concerns from investors about the company's investment in artificial intelligence being higher than expected, SpaceX's stock price had dropped by about 14%. However, most Wall Street analysts still maintain a long-term optimistic view of the company.The market's focus includes SpaceX's future investment plans in AI, satellite internet, and mobile communications. Although facing short-term capital expenditure pressures, analysts believe that the company's leading position in rocket launches, the Starlink satellite network, and the commercial space sector remains an important factor supporting its long-term valuation.This stock release, valued at approximately $100 billion, has also become an important event for the market to test investor confidence after SpaceX's listing. The stock price did not experience significant fluctuations, indicating that the market had certain expectations regarding the liquidity release for internal shareholders.

FlashRescue co-founder @DarcyAri posted on the X platform that recently, during a joint investigation with partners on a case, Tether experienced a transfer of funds from one address during the execution of a proposal to freeze addresses, resulting in a decrease in the frozen amount. Further review by FlashRescue revealed that this is not an isolated incident. As of August 3, 2026, through an analysis of 2,955 Tether freeze events on the Ethereum and Tron networks, it was found that among addresses involved in risks such as entity sanctions, fraudulent activities, money laundering, FATF blacklist jurisdictions, and malicious attacks: 60 addresses cleared their assets and completed front-running transfers before the formal execution of the freeze, with a total net outflow of 20,429,847 USDT, starting transfers an average of 13 minutes and 59 seconds after the freeze proposal was submitted, and completing the main fund transfers within 15 minutes and 15 seconds; additionally, 113 addresses transferred some assets before the freeze was executed, involving approximately 35,524,300 USDT.The average time from the submission of the freeze proposal to the formal execution of the freeze by Tether is 2 hours, 16 minutes, and 15 seconds, indicating a long time window between the public announcement of the freeze proposal and its actual execution. On July 3, a cluster of addresses transferred funds continuously within minutes and then split the transfers to the same address. The above cases suggest that some high-risk addresses may be actively monitoring Tether freeze proposals and utilizing the time difference between the public announcement of the proposal and the actual effectiveness of the freeze to implement front-running transfers. This mechanism leads to the failure of freezing the involved funds and undermines the actual effectiveness of sanctions, anti-money laundering, and law enforcement cooperation measures.

BIT released a market analysis stating that, from a technical perspective, gold may be in a bottoming phase. The report also pointed out that its views differ from the current market consensus: although the bond market is still factoring in expectations of two rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year, it judges that there may not be any rate hikes this year.

According to SemiAnalysis, AMD reached a performance-based warrant agreement with Meta and OpenAI from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. The warrants will vest in batches based on the two companies' procurement and deployment of up to 6GW of AMD Instinct GPUs, while AMD's stock price must exceed a tiered target (up to $600).As AMD's stock price has risen from around $200 in early 2026 to the current $500-600, SemiAnalysis estimates that the GPU capital costs for Meta and OpenAI have decreased from about $2.15/hour and $2.50/hour to approximately $1.60/hour and $1.75/hour, respectively. If AMD's stock price rises to $600-700, the capital cost of the GPUs themselves will approach zero; if it further exceeds $1000, the total capital cost of the entire cluster (including servers, networks, and CPUs) will effectively be zero for both companies. This analysis is based on the assumption of linear vesting and the premise that the entire 6GW capacity is deployed, and the specific terms of the warrants have not been disclosed.

According to Cointelegraph, Markus Thielen, founder of the crypto research firm 10x Research, pointed out in the latest report that if Bitcoin's closing price in August can stabilize above $63,000, it will trigger multiple cyclical indicators to turn bullish, thereby confirming that the bear market bottom has been reached.The report shows that Bitcoin's closing price in July failed to reach this threshold, with the current quote around $63,140, just one step away from the confirmation signal. In terms of positioning strategy, 10x Research indicates that it still prefers to hold long positions, but if Bitcoin falls below key support levels and moving averages, it will shift to a neutral stance. In terms of risk warnings, the report notes: if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to rise, it may force the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate hikes in September; at the same time, the potential selling pressure of about 100,000 BTC from miners transitioning to AI businesses, as well as the liquidation actions of Bitcoin treasury companies, all constitute supply-side pressure.

CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto stated that the current percentage of unrealized losses for Bitcoin is 35.2%, which means that approximately 35% of the tracked supply is in a state of unrealized loss. This indicator is still above 20%, but has now fallen below the deep pressure range of 40%, far below the similar capitulation drop zone of 60%.This indicator broke through 40% around the end of June, reaching 42.2%, then dropped to 30.4% around July 21, and subsequently rebounded to 35.2%. In previous major bear market phases shown in the chart, after the first test of the 40% area, there is usually a period of pressure consolidation, after which the indicator tends to approach or exceed 60%, often leading to a capitulation-like drop. Zizcrypto believes that the current supply of unrealized losses is still high, but the latest data has fallen below the deep pressure range and has not yet reached capitulation-level pressure. However, levels above 40% and 60% remain key areas to watch.

Analyst Murphy stated that there have been consecutive transfers of over 65,000 BTC in a single day in the past two days (excluding internal transfers within the same entity), leading to a significant decrease in the net holdings of long-term holders (LTH). He pointed out that LTH net holdings have changed the previously continuous upward trend since May, remaining stagnant until July, which is a rare phenomenon in the past year.Murphy mentioned that nearly 14,000 BTC were transferred to exchanges, for example, a publicly listed company under Trump transferred 2,628 BTC to the Crypto.com exchange, which is part of this. The remaining destinations and purposes of the LTH net reduction are still unknown.He also listed current macro-level risk points that may impact BTC, including the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut with a 9 to 3 split vote, conflicts in the Middle East and oil prices, the highly concentrated valuation of the AI sector in the US stock market relying on debt and private credit financing, and the yen carry trade positions accumulating again to a nearly historically extreme net short state, while also noting that the sensitivity of the current BTC chip structure may amplify the above risks.

Analyst "AntiFragile" posted on the X platform stating that the Bitcoin (BTC) order book currently shows strong buyer support, with a large number of patient buy orders concentrated in the range of 2%-20% below the current price.AntiFragile pointed out that these buy orders began to appear as early as the beginning of June, representing passive buying demand that is positioned in advance. If the BTC price falls and touches these areas, it is expected that these buy orders will act as a buffer, reducing market volatility. The current order book structure shows that some investors are waiting to enter at lower prices rather than buying in line with the upward trend. These long-term orders may become a potential support force during short-term market corrections.