timing

Binance founder Zhao Changpeng stated during the podcast "When Shift Happens" that he remains bullish on Bitcoin but denies having the ability to influence the price of the entire crypto market. Previously, on August 19, when Bitcoin was around the $60,000 range, Zhao Changpeng posted that if one wants their future self to thank today's decisions in two years, immediate action is needed. This post was interpreted by the market as a hint to buy Bitcoin, and in the following days, the crypto market rose by about 20%.Zhao Changpeng responded that he does not have the ability to drive the entire market price. He stated that he has always been bullish on the crypto industry, and almost all of his posts have a bullish tendency, posting 5 to 10 times a day, so it is not surprising that one of his posts coincidentally appeared before positive news.Zhao Changpeng mentioned that about 5 hours after the post was published, Trump gave a relatively positive speech about the crypto industry, mentioning the push for Hyperliquid to enter the U.S. market, but he did not know the content of the speech in advance. He emphasized that if he had any information that could affect the market, he would not post about it. Therefore, the post and the subsequent market rise were merely a coincidence in timing.Regarding the Bitcoin cycle, Zhao Changpeng stated that the crypto market has roughly followed a four-year cycle to date. At that time, some speculated that Bitcoin might bottom out in October, but he believes there is no need to wait until October to express a bullish view.

On September 23, according to Bitcoin Treasuries, the latest ethics disclosure document (OGE Form 278-T) from U.S. President Trump shows that his account purchased shares of Bitcoin Treasury company Strategy Inc. (MSTR) on July 24 and 27, with amounts ranging from $1,001 to $15,000 and $50,001 to $100,000, respectively. The report states that the timing of the purchases coincided with MSTR being at a low point for 2026, and since July 24, the stock has risen approximately 83%.The White House stated that the aforementioned holdings are managed by a third-party institution with full delegation, and Trump himself does not participate in trading decisions. The relevant holdings are disclosed in his capacity as a beneficiary. Previously, his account had also bought and sold Strategy stock multiple times, selling a total of $16,002 to $65,000 in June, and the two new buy orders in this disclosure are additional trading records from the July window period.

According to South Korean media MK, Min Byeong-deok, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea, revealed that the South Korean "Basic Law on Digital Assets" will be promoted for formulation within the year, with a public hearing planned for this month, and the formal advancement of the bill review will begin in November after the national government audit concludes. However, considering that the National Assembly will also conduct national government audits and budget reviews, the legislative timeline may be postponed until the first half of next year.In addition, the South Korean Financial Services Commission has announced a phased implementation roadmap for Security Token Offerings (STO), and financial institutions are also advancing tokenization system testing and global infrastructure cooperation. South Korea's digital asset regulation is gradually shifting from institutional discussions to the preparation phase for implementation.

According to Jinshi reports, analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank pointed out in a report that the suspected intervention action aimed at boosting the yen on Thursday is similar in timing to previous intervention operations. This intervention occurred at the end of the month, and the relevant confirmation data is expected to be released at the end of August.In addition, the action took place during the New York trading session, leaving a "clear impression that this action had the full support of the U.S. government." U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the yen seems to be "severely undervalued."

According to Jinshi, European Central Bank Executive Board Member Schnabel stated that the scale and timing of further actions will depend on the Middle East conflict, inflation, and economic conditions.

According to Jinshi reports, European Central Bank board member Kaasik stated that the main reason for the interest rate hike is the concerning surge in inflation. He pointed out that it is difficult to say when the European Central Bank's next interest rate hike will come.

According to Jinshi, Federal Reserve official Daly stated that the improvement in productivity should lead to a decrease in inflation, but the key lies in the specific timing.

In April, the CPI in the United States increased by 3.8% year-on-year, reaching a new high since May 2023, exceeding the market expectation of 3.7%. Previously, on May 8, Bank of America economists stated in a report to clients that due to inflationary pressures remaining above expectations and robust job growth, they have abandoned their earlier predictions of rate cuts in September and October this year, postponing the first rate cut to the second half of 2027.The previous view was based on the expectation that Trump would nominate Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, leading to a more accommodative policy. However, with changes in the economic situation, this view has shifted. The report mentioned, "We no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year." They also pointed out that multiple shock factors affecting the economy, including the war in Iran, tariffs, and the rise of artificial intelligence, have made predicting interest rate changes more difficult.

According to CoinDesk, Kraken stated that it has submitted 56 million cryptocurrency transaction tax forms to the IRS for the 2025 tax year, of which approximately 18.5 million correspond to amounts below $1, 74% are below $50, and only 8.5% exceed $600.Kraken pointed out that the lack of a minimum amount tax exemption rule for cryptocurrency payments, as well as the taxation of staking rewards as ordinary income at the time of receipt, is placing a heavy reporting burden on investors. Kraken is calling on the U.S. Congress to promote a broader minimum amount tax exemption policy linked to inflation and to allow taxpayers to choose to be taxed on staking rewards at the time of receipt or sale.

According to market news, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman privately stated this year that he hopes the company can complete its IPO as early as the fourth quarter; CFO Sarah Friar has revealed to several colleagues that she believes the company will not be ready for an IPO until 2026, citing reasons including the required processes and organizational workload, as well as the financial risks associated with high computing power procurement commitments.Internally, Altman has repeatedly excluded Friar from financial decisions. In recent months, he did not invite Friar to participate in discussions with a top investor regarding server procurement, with one attendee describing her absence as "notable and awkward," as she had participated in previous meetings on the same topic. Since August of last year, Friar has no longer reported directly to Altman, but instead reports to application business head Fidji Simo, breaking the norm where CFOs of large companies typically report directly to the CEO.On the financial front, OpenAI has committed to investing over $600 billion in cloud servers over the next five years, with internal forecasts predicting that it will consume over $200 billion in cash before achieving positive cash flow. The $122 billion financing commitment announced this week primarily comes from Amazon and Nvidia, both of which are also OpenAI's cloud server and chip suppliers, creating a circular capital arrangement. Anthropic has surpassed OpenAI to become the preferred AI model for enterprises and developers, and OpenAI's revenue growth is also slowing.Preparations for the IPO have quietly begun: OpenAI has engaged the law firms Cooley and Wachtell Lipton Rosen & Katz and has had preliminary communications with the IPO teams at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Altman privately expressed a desire to go public before Anthropic, which is currently discussing its IPO plans for the fourth quarter of this year. The two executives later issued a joint statement saying they are "completely aligned on the computing power strategy."

According to Jinshi News, Morgan Stanley stated that the Federal Reserve may resume interest rate cuts as early as June, but the oil price shock caused by the Iran war could delay the Fed's actions. Although rising energy prices may exacerbate inflation, the bank's economists still maintain their prediction that the Fed will cut rates twice this year, in June and September, by 25 basis points each time. However, they believe that the Fed's first rate cut may be delayed until September or even December.

According to Jinshi News, Goldman Sachs' Head of Multi-Asset Fixed Income Investment, Lindsay Rosner, stated that signs of a weak labor market remind the Federal Reserve that delaying interest rate cuts could come at a cost. Although short-term policies are still influenced by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, Rosner expects that the Federal Reserve will ultimately complete the remaining two "normalization rate cuts" to bring rates back to neutral, but the specific timing remains uncertain.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin failed to hold its ground after rebounding to $70,000 over the weekend and has now declined for three consecutive days. Amid weakening spot trading volume, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in the "Extreme Fear" zone.On-chain data institutions indicate that this round of correction is relatively mild compared to historical cycles, with no signs of panic selling commonly seen at previous cycle tops, suggesting that this may be a good time for medium to long-term positioning.Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs have maintained stable net inflows over the past three days, providing some hedge against selling pressure in the market. With low spot trading volume, leveraged funds are dominating short-term price fluctuations. The previous rebound from the low was influenced by the squeeze on crowded short positions, and it is expected that short-term prices may continue to fluctuate sharply within a range.On the macro front, weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data has raised expectations for interest rate cuts and suppressed the dollar's performance. The market will next focus on non-farm employment and inflation data, which may further impact the sentiment towards risk assets.

According to Jin Ten, Rajapaksa, the head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Societe Generale, stated that the market seems to be questioning the timing of the Federal Reserve's next rate cut and has not yet factored in the impact of the new chairman.

The founder of the decentralized social protocol Farcaster, Dan Romero, responded to the question on social media, "Say something that couldn't be publicly shared before the acquisition, but can now be expressed openly," by stating: "I had hoped to issue a token for Farcaster, but I just never found the right moment."

According to Jin Shi, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson stated that the current policy stance puts us in a favorable position to determine the magnitude and timing of adjustments to the policy interest rate.

According to sources, some Bank of Japan policymakers believe that the possibility of an interest rate hike may come earlier than the market expects, with a significant chance of a rate increase in April due to the continued depreciation of the yen, which could exacerbate already heightened inflationary pressures. Bank of Japan decision-makers are facing a daunting task: to raise the ultra-low borrowing costs that have persisted for years amid growing pressures on growth from global headwinds, while the Japanese economy has just begun to recover from the effects of long-term deflation.The central bank just raised rates to a thirty-year high in December and is expected to maintain rates at the January meeting. However, sources say that many Bank of Japan policymakers believe there is room for further rate hikes, with some not ruling out the possibility of taking action in April, which would be earlier than the mainstream market expectation (that rate hikes will occur in the second half of this year). Sources indicate that if sufficient evidence emerges showing that Japan will consistently achieve the 2% inflation target, some within the Bank of Japan do not rule out the possibility of taking action sooner.

Evernorth, the XRP treasury entity supported by Ripple, is preparing to go public on Nasdaq through a SPAC merger, trading under the ticker symbol XRPN. The company holds 388 million XRP tokens, currently valued at approximately $812 million.CEO Asheesh Birla stated, "The timing couldn't be more perfect; we have the right regulatory environment, government support, and institutions ready to adopt." Despite the recent valuation plunge of crypto reserve companies, many of which have stopped purchasing cryptocurrencies, Birla emphasized that Evernorth not only provides exposure to XRP but also handles custody, compliance, and security obligations.

The Bank of Korea stated that it will decide whether and when to further cut interest rates next year based on a comprehensive assessment of future data. The bank indicated that, given the high caution in the domestic and foreign exchange markets, it will strengthen market monitoring activities and actively implement stabilization measures.Last month, the Bank of Korea kept the interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time at its policy meeting and hinted that the current rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end, as the weakening exchange rate has reduced the space for further easing. The bank's next meeting will be held in January next year.