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BTC $79,007.50 -2.95%
ETH $2,219.35 -3.38%
BNB $672.12 -1.36%
XRP $1.43 -4.36%
SOL $89.16 -3.92%
TRX $0.3517 -0.46%
DOGE $0.1135 -2.54%
ADA $0.2611 -4.24%
BCH $425.00 -2.92%
LINK $10.06 -4.81%
HYPE $44.07 +0.14%
AAVE $92.67 -6.82%
SUI $1.09 -8.89%
XLM $0.1543 -5.81%
ZEC $515.96 -8.54%

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The Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates for a long time, which is bearish for Bitcoin but bullish for Circle and RWA

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that in the context of rising inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve may maintain a high interest rate policy for a long time, which will have three core impacts on the cryptocurrency market. He believes that as the U.S. CPI approaches 4%, the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has almost no room for interest rate cuts, and the market currently expects the first rate cut to be delayed until September 2027. Grayscale pointed out that long-term high interest rates will put pressure on "currency devaluation trades" such as Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin, like gold, is a non-yielding asset, higher real interest rates will increase the opportunity cost of holding dollar-denominated assets. However, it remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects and believes that regulatory benefits such as the CLARITY Act can partially offset the related pressures. In addition, it believes that a high interest rate environment will accelerate the tokenization of fixed income assets. Currently, the yields on dollar-denominated fixed income products are higher than those of most DeFi yields; for example, the USDC lending rate on Aave is about 3.6%, while the yield on short-term corporate bonds is about 4.5%. Grayscale also stated that stablecoin issuers will benefit from high interest rates. Since the GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoins from paying interest to users, issuers can retain the income from reserve assets. It estimates that for every 25 basis point increase in short-term rates, Circle's revenue will increase by approximately $190 million.

Analyst: Ethereum faces downside risk, may drop 20% to $1700

According to Cointelegraph, multiple analysts have pointed out that Ethereum faces downside risks, with ETH potentially dropping another 20% to the $1,700 range. The increase in holdings on trading platforms and the decline in ETF demand are the main sources of pressure.CryptoQuant analyst BorisD noted that from May 5 to May 9, the ETH reserves on Binance surged from 3.36 million to 3.84 million, while the price dropped 7% from $2,390 to $2,260 during the same period. He stated, "This indicates that liquidity is being absorbed and distributed simultaneously. The overall structure still points to dominant downside risks."Another analyst, PelinayPA, shares the same view, believing that any short-term rebound will "be accompanied by high volatility, followed by a continuation of a broader downward trend," and added, "A large amount of ETH continues to flow into trading platforms, creating significant resistance to price increases." The net inflow of ETH to trading platforms surged to 585,000, marking the largest single-day inflow since December 2025—at that time, the ETH price was around $3,000, which subsequently dropped to $1,750 in February this year, a decline of 42%. Such large-scale inflows typically indicate that large holders are offloading.Meanwhile, the demand for spot Ethereum ETFs continues to weaken, recording net outflows for four consecutive days, with a total outflow amounting to $190 million. From a technical perspective, the ETH daily chart shows that the ascending wedge pattern has broken below the support level of $2,280. If the daily closing price confirms a break below, the target will point to the wedge measurement target of $1,725, a 22% drop from the current price, aligning with the macro low on February 6 of this year.Analyst ShangoTrades stated that this breakdown "is starting to become concerning." From a longer-term perspective, analyst CryptoBullGod pointed out that the measurement target for the ETH weekly bear flag pattern is $1,280.
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