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The U.S. CLARITY Act is entering a critical two weeks, with multiple parties intensifying discussions during the Senate recess

According to Crypto in America, the U.S. Senate will recess until July 13, and the advancement of the CLARITY Act depends on the progress of behind-the-scenes coordination over the next two weeks. Staff from both parties, government officials, and industry stakeholders are working to resolve remaining differences, including reconciling text discrepancies between the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee, as well as reaching consensus on ethical standards and provisions to combat illegal financial activities.The bill requires the support of at least 60 senators to pass. Even if all 53 Republican votes are in favor, at least 7 Democratic senators will need to join; the support of the majority of Democrats may depend on whether the White House can agree to establish a strong ethical framework regarding issues related to Trump's cryptocurrency business. According to Reuters, since Trump's return to the White House, his cryptocurrency business has generated over $2 billion in new wealth for him.Additionally, major law enforcement groups still oppose the inclusion of provisions from the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act in the bill, arguing that it would increase the difficulty of investigating and prosecuting on-chain crimes. Remaining discrepancies in the Agriculture Committee's text include issues such as the prioritization of federal law over state law, management of conflicts of interest in exchanges, and restrictions on related-party transactions. Sources indicate that the parties have not yet reached a final agreement, and there remains uncertainty about whether the Senate vote can be completed before the August recess.

first_img Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of the "CLARITY Act" passing to 50%

According to Bitcoin Magazine, Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of the passage of the CLARITY Act in 2026 from 60% three weeks ago to 50%, due to the increasingly tight Senate schedule, the lack of a published merged text for the bill, no scheduled votes, and no public commitment from leadership. The bill has been listed as item 423 on the legislative calendar since it passed the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 with a vote of 15-9, but no motion to advance it has been scheduled to date.The report indicates that the Senate must announce a schedule by early July to complete voting before the August recess; otherwise, it will be postponed until September, when the upcoming midterm elections will make controversial votes harder to arrange. Priority legislation such as FISA Section 702 and the NDAA occupies a significant amount of time, and Trump's veto of the housing bill further exacerbates scheduling pressures.The substantive content of the bill has not yet been fully resolved, and ethical provisions remain a core controversy, with at least two Republican senators expected to vote against it, making Democratic support essential. The report suggests that if leadership clarifies a commitment to vote in July within the next two weeks, the probability of passage will rise to 60% or higher; if there is continued lack of progress, it will be further lowered.

Robinhood's second-quarter revenue is expected to reach $123 million, potentially surpassing cryptocurrency trading income

According to Dr. Crossroads' analysis, Robinhood's event prediction market revenue is expected to surpass its traditional cryptocurrency trading revenue as early as the second quarter of this year. Data shows that as of June 25, Robinhood has recorded approximately 12.3 billion event contract trades in the second quarter. Based on the usual 1 cent per contract revenue share, this is expected to contribute at least $123 million in single-quarter revenue, pushing the annualized revenue rate (ARR) of this business to $500 million. In comparison, due to the decline in institutional trading volume, its cryptocurrency business revenue in the second quarter is expected to fall below the first quarter's $134 million.At the same time, Robinhood's newly launched prediction market platform Rothera has surpassed 900 million contracts traded in its first week, bringing nearly 60% of potential contract trading increment to the company. Through Rothera's full-stack self-research and vertical integration, Robinhood plans to change the current fixed model where users pay 2 cents per contract (with the company and partner exchanges each receiving 1 cent), reducing the new fee rate to a minimum of 0.6 cents. This move aims to sprint into the top three in the industry through core price advantages while retaining the economic benefits of trade execution entirely within its ecosystem while passing savings on to users.

Cryptocurrency stocks have fallen much more than large tech stocks: Coinbase and Circle have dropped 69% and 72% from their highs, respectively, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000, intensifying pessimism

According to Cointelegraph, in the wave of declines in technology stocks, cryptocurrency-related stocks have suffered particularly severe losses, with the divergence from the broader market continuing to widen. Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) have fallen 69% and 72% from their respective historical highs, far exceeding the 48% to 57% pullback of mainstream tech stocks like Oracle, Salesforce, Netflix, and Palantir; in contrast, the S&P 500 index has only retreated 3.5% from its recent peak.On the fundamental side, Coinbase's first-quarter performance was significantly below Wall Street expectations, with a 21% quarter-over-quarter decline in revenue and a loss of $1.49 per share, while analysts had previously expected earnings of $0.27 per share. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 this week, down more than 54% from its October peak; Ethereum also dropped to around $1,500, down about 69% from last year's high, with market sentiment continuing to deteriorate.21Shares has lowered its 2026 cryptocurrency market expectations in its mid-year outlook report, believing that the performance of digital asset prices is significantly lagging behind the industry's fundamentals. The institution pointed out that institutional adoption is still deepening, with stablecoins, asset tokenization, and prediction markets maintaining strong development momentum, but the four-year market cycle of Bitcoin remains the dominant force in price trends. The report also acknowledged previous misjudgments—"the cycle of Bitcoin is evolving, but has not yet broken," retracting its earlier assertion that the four-year cycle was outdated.Analysts believe that the deep pullback in cryptocurrency stocks reflects the overall weakness of the digital asset market, the uncertainty of legislative progress in the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure, and the compounded pressure from the potential impact of AI technology on existing business models.

JPMorgan: SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index could bring in $4.3 billion in passive fund inflows

According to Reuters, Nasdaq has confirmed that SpaceX (SPCX) will be included in the Nasdaq 100 Index on July 7, which may bring a wave of passive fund buying for the stock. Inclusion in the index typically boosts stock prices, as ETFs that track the performance of the relevant index need to purchase shares of newly included companies. JPMorgan expects that SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 Index could bring in $4.3 billion in passive fund inflows.SpaceX went public on Nasdaq on June 12. To attract more companies to list in the U.S., Nasdaq and index providers such as FTSE Russell and MSCI have previously relaxed some inclusion requirements, including profitability, days since listing, and the number of tradable shares. SpaceX has fluctuated between significant losses and small profits over the past three years, with a net loss of $4.9 billion last year.Michael Field, Chief Equity Market Strategist at Morningstar, stated, "Clearly, there is strong market demand, which is why they are quickly including it in the index." He added that many people will be satisfied with this, but some fund managers and skeptics may not agree, as Morningstar believes the stock is overvalued. Investors typically gain broader market exposure through funds that track the Nasdaq 100 Index, such as Invesco's QQQ and QQQM. Additionally, large language model companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are also expected to submit IPO applications this year or next and may seek valuations exceeding $1 trillion.However, S&P Global stated this month that it will not adjust the requirements for SpaceX to enter major indices like the S&P 500 and will consider including it in relevant indices only after at least 12 months.

Coinbase assists the Brooklyn District Attorney's Office in combating fraud cases, involving approximately 16 million dollars

Coinbase officially stated that it is cooperating with the Brooklyn District Attorney's Office in New York, assisting in the investigation of a long-term impersonation fraud case targeting platform users and supporting victims in recovering funds.According to the Brooklyn District Attorney's Office, a Brooklyn man has been charged with long-term impersonation of Coinbase customer service, using social engineering techniques to mislead users into believing their accounts were compromised and requesting them to transfer funds to a "secure wallet," subsequently transferring and stealing the funds. The case involves approximately 100 victims, with the amount in question nearing $16 million, and over $600,000 has been recovered so far.Coinbase stated that such scams do not stem from platform security vulnerabilities but are social engineering attacks that exploit user trust and urgency, with common tactics including identity forgery, impersonating customer service, and creating account risk panic. The company claims to have cooperated with law enforcement to complete various investigative tasks, including identifying suspects, assisting victims in notifications, providing legal request data support, and on-chain fund tracking, emphasizing that blockchain traceability helps law enforcement track the flow of funds.Coinbase also reminds users that the platform will never ask users to transfer funds to a "secure wallet," nor will it request 2FA verification codes, recovery phrases, or password reset links, and advises users to contact customer service only through official in-app channels. The company will continue to strengthen anti-fraud mechanisms, user education, and cooperation with law enforcement to address the increasingly complex cryptocurrency asset fraud.

Ansem: Pessimism has reached an extreme, and the current entry point for Bitcoin is a good trading opportunity

Crypto KOL Ansem reiterated the long-term investment logic of Bitcoin, stating that despite previously holding a bearish stance, the current price level presents a good buying opportunity. He pointed out that the core narrative of Bitcoin as the hardest currency remains unchanged—it's not subject to government seizure, can be transferred across borders instantly, and is not affected by the long-term depreciation of the dollar, making it an ideal vehicle for long-term wealth storage. The performance of gold outpacing Bitcoin between 2024 and 2025 temporarily undermined the "digital gold" narrative, but he believes that as long as price momentum rebounds, market confidence can be restored.On a macro level, Ansem believes that with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the expected easing of inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance may be nearing its peak, at which point both Waller and the Federal Reserve will have room to cut interest rates rather than continue raising them; the strength of the dollar and rising interest rates exert pressure on gold, but if profits from AI stocks flow into real estate, cash, and long-term value storage assets, both gold and Bitcoin will benefit; institutional investors like Paul Tudor Jones still show interest in Bitcoin.Previously, Ansem candidly admitted to being bearish on Bitcoin due to Saylor's (founder of Strategy) position risk, once believing that $60,000 would be hard to maintain, but he stated he is now responding to buy signals. He noted that the current price action has priced in the worst-case scenario of Saylor being forced to sell, and even if he truly needs to sell, it would not happen for at least six months. He concluded that Bitcoin is currently at the intersection of long-term historical support levels and the most pessimistic market sentiment he has observed, making entry at the beginning of Q3 a trading opportunity worth paying attention to.

Caixin: The son of a former official from the Wuhan Supervisory Commission laundered over 64 million Hong Kong dollars in Hong Kong, claiming that part of the funds came from selling Bitcoin

According to Caixin, Xiao Rui, the son of former Wuhan Municipal Supervisory Commission member Xiao Jun, is suspected of receiving approximately HKD 4.72 million in bribes from mainland construction contractors on behalf of his father, and has laundered over HKD 64 million through underground money houses. On June 23, the Hong Kong Regional Court found Xiao Rui guilty of four counts of "money laundering" and one count of "using a false document," with the judge set to announce the sentence on July 23.In 2014, Xiao Rui was approved to reside in Hong Kong. That same year, he used his HSBC account to purchase two funds from Sun Life Financial for HKD 10 million to meet the investment requirements of the aforementioned immigration plan. Between January 2016 and September 2017, Xiao Rui's Standard Chartered and DBS accounts received multiple remittances, totaling over HKD 54 million.Regarding the "money laundering" charges, Xiao Rui argued in court that the large sums involved were legitimate earnings from his mother's business, given to him for investment in Hong Kong, with some funds also coming from the sale of Bitcoin. Concerning the explanation about Bitcoin, the judge rejected his testimony as Xiao Rui could not provide any basic records such as transaction dates, numbers, or wallet addresses.
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