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Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that in the context of rising inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve may maintain a high interest rate policy for a long time, which will have three core impacts on the cryptocurrency market. He believes that as the U.S. CPI approaches 4%, the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has almost no room for interest rate cuts, and the market currently expects the first rate cut to be delayed until September 2027. Grayscale pointed out that long-term high interest rates will put pressure on "currency devaluation trades" such as Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin, like gold, is a non-yielding asset, higher real interest rates will increase the opportunity cost of holding dollar-denominated assets. However, it remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects and believes that regulatory benefits such as the CLARITY Act can partially offset the related pressures. In addition, it believes that a high interest rate environment will accelerate the tokenization of fixed income assets. Currently, the yields on dollar-denominated fixed income products are higher than those of most DeFi yields; for example, the USDC lending rate on Aave is about 3.6%, while the yield on short-term corporate bonds is about 4.5%. Grayscale also stated that stablecoin issuers will benefit from high interest rates. Since the GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoins from paying interest to users, issuers can retain the income from reserve assets. It estimates that for every 25 basis point increase in short-term rates, Circle's revenue will increase by approximately $190 million.

According to Jinshi reports, U.S. interest rate futures indicate that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by January next year exceeds 50%.

According to Jin Shi reports, Carol Kong, a foreign exchange strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, stated that the inflation data released this week will not be welcomed by FOMC officials, including the incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Waller. The U.S. Senate has approved Waller to serve as the Federal Reserve Chairman. Kong expects that the FOMC will have to enter a rate hike cycle starting in December this year, with three rate increases expected during this cycle.

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan officially submitted his resignation on Thursday, stating that he would vacate his seat on the Federal Reserve Board at or before the inauguration of the new chairman, Kevin Warsh.Milan took over her position on the board after Adriana Kugler's sudden resignation in August 2025. Milan has played a dissenting role in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is responsible for setting interest rates. In the six FOMC meetings he attended, he voted "no" each time.He stated that he believes personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, particularly in housing, will gradually return to normal levels, and reiterated that, given the lagging nature of monetary policy, he believes it is necessary to cut interest rates.Milan has consistently advocated for lower interest rates and opposed the three rate cuts of 25 basis points each approved by the FOMC in 2025, as he supported larger cuts. This year, he voted three times against the decision to maintain interest rates, instead supporting a 25 basis point cut.Additionally, he mentioned that he has been pushing for a more forward-looking monetary policy approach and believes the Federal Reserve "needs to better consider non-monetary factors and their impact on monetary policy." He specifically pointed out the effects of slowing population growth and reduced immigration on employment, as well as the deflationary pressures brought about by regulatory easing.

According to Jinshi News, the CME "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 96.8%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 3.2%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 93.8%, with the probabilities of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points and a rate hike of 25 basis points both at 3.1%.

According to Jinshi News, strategists at TD Securities stated in a report that even if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in the future, the dollar may still weaken this year. They pointed out that in the context of the standoff between the U.S. and Iran and high oil prices, the expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026 has been removed, and instead, interest rates are expected to remain stable. The strategists emphasized that they still maintain the forecast path for a weaker dollar in 2026 and believe that even if the Federal Reserve shifts to raising rates in the future, the magnitude of its rate hikes may be lower than that of other major central banks. It is expected that once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the dollar index will continue to fall below the 98 mark.

The TAC team announced that its cross-chain layer's TON side was exploited by external attackers, resulting in a loss of approximately $2.8 million, involving USDT, BLUM, and tsTON. TAC, TON, and all ERC-20 tokens bridged from Ethereum are unaffected. The bridging service remains suspended, and forensic analysis and repair work are ongoing. A complete report with more details will be released within the next 48 hours.The team is actively collaborating with law enforcement, SEAL 911, and security partners to track and freeze the stolen funds. The team stated that its core focus is to sell the foundation's TAC token reserves in a legally structured manner to compensate for user losses and fully restore bridging liquidity. Official channels will continue to update progress.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 99%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1%. Similarly, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until July is also 99%, with a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points having a probability of 1%.

According to Jinshi reports, the White House announced that Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that we are very serious about reducing inflation.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that the inflation shock has not allowed the Federal Reserve to evade responsibility, but has made the work of addressing inflation more difficult.

According to Jin Shi reports, Federal Reserve official Collins stated that he hopes the economy will allow for more interest rate cuts later this year.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Collins stated that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to alleviate inflationary pressures.

According to Jinshi reports, the market has currently priced in a probability of over 30% for interest rate hikes before December. After the unexpectedly strong PPI data in the U.S. for April, the market believes it will be almost more difficult for the Federal Reserve to justify any rate cuts this year.The April PPI rose by 1.4%, significantly higher than the general expectation of 0.5% from economists, indicating that inflationary pressures are stronger than expected and reinforcing the trend of the market repricing the interest rate path.

According to Jinshi reports, UBS Global Wealth Management expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2026 and March 2027, whereas the previous forecast was for rate cuts in September and December of this year.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 97.1%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 2.9%. In addition, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 96%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 3.9%.

According to Jinshi reports, the U.S. Senate has confirmed the nomination of Waller as the Federal Reserve Board Governor.

According to CoinDesk, wallet service provider Exodus Movement (EXOD) sold approximately $73.2 million in crypto assets in the first quarter, during which its Bitcoin holdings decreased by 1,076 coins, a decline of about 63%, leaving only 628 BTC. The fair value of its assets dropped from $149.2 million to $42.8 million.During the same period, it added 5,068 SOL, increasing its total holdings to 17,541 SOL. The company stated that the related cash-out was mainly used for the acquisition of the W3C payment business and to pay off maturing consideration, and it has converted over $70 million into dollar reserves, raising its cash, cash equivalents, and stablecoin balance from $5.2 million to $74.4 million. Affected by the impairment and disposal of crypto assets, Exodus's revenue in the first quarter fell by 36.8% year-on-year to $22.7 million, and net losses widened to $32.1 million.