BTC $68,891.25 -6.59%
ETH $1,937.21 -5.64%
BNB $633.35 -6.57%
XRP $1.00 -4.15%
SOL $78.70 -5.49%
TRX $0.3113 -1.84%
DOGE $0.0637 -5.31%
ADA $0.1686 -2.64%
BCH $217.20 -5.65%
LINK $9.74 -3.73%
HYPE $70.81 -1.97%
AAVE $110.86 -6.76%
SUI $0.7739 -5.57%
XLM $0.1426 -2.91%
ZEC $929.34 -5.89%
AAPL $356.37 +0.08%
AMZN $267.89 +0.60%
GOOGL $300.01 +1.63%
MSFT $520.71 -0.12%
META $624.96 -0.66%
NVDA $163.99 +1.61%
TSLA $398.00 +2.60%
SNDK $924.05 -3.78%
INTC $60.75 -0.28%
SPCX $140.29 +0.22%
MU $792.38 -0.14%
AMD $573.79 +1.49%
BTC $68,891.25 -6.59%
ETH $1,937.21 -5.64%
BNB $633.35 -6.57%
XRP $1.00 -4.15%
SOL $78.70 -5.49%
TRX $0.3113 -1.84%
DOGE $0.0637 -5.31%
ADA $0.1686 -2.64%
BCH $217.20 -5.65%
LINK $9.74 -3.73%
HYPE $70.81 -1.97%
AAVE $110.86 -6.76%
SUI $0.7739 -5.57%
XLM $0.1426 -2.91%
ZEC $929.34 -5.89%
AAPL $356.37 +0.08%
AMZN $267.89 +0.60%
GOOGL $300.01 +1.63%
MSFT $520.71 -0.12%
META $624.96 -0.66%
NVDA $163.99 +1.61%
TSLA $398.00 +2.60%
SNDK $924.05 -3.78%
INTC $60.75 -0.28%
SPCX $140.29 +0.22%
MU $792.38 -0.14%
AMD $573.79 +1.49%

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Analysis: The process of deleveraging has accelerated, and Binance's Bitcoin open interest has decreased by 17% in one month

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that within less than a month, the open interest of BTC on the Binance platform has decreased from 10.6 billion dollars to 8.8 billion dollars, a drop of 17%. Meanwhile, its 180-day moving average has risen from 8.4 billion dollars to 8.6 billion dollars. As the open interest falls below the moving average, new signals of deleveraging are emerging in the market. In a bull market phase, this signal typically appears when market corrections are nearing their end, reflecting that traders are reducing their leveraged exposure, which includes both voluntary liquidations and forced liquidations due to insufficient margin.Aside from the fact that this process may last for months in a bear market, a similar signal last appeared in June of this year when the BTC price was below 60,000 dollars, subsequently rebounding to above 87,000 dollars, with an increase of over 45%. Currently, as the open interest declines, the market is also experiencing large-scale liquidations. Low volatility seems to encourage some traders to take on higher risks to compensate for the insufficient returns brought about by the narrowing price fluctuations, making them more susceptible to market reversal shocks. Over the past three months, the monthly liquidation scale on Binance has reached new highs since 2021: over 1.4 billion dollars in August, 1.1 billion dollars in September, and 1.3 billion dollars in October. This trend appears to continue into November, with the liquidation scale exceeding 520 million dollars before the end of the first half of this month.These data highlight the potential losses that leveraged trading can bring to investors. In a market environment with low volatility and shrinking trading volume, blindly increasing risk exposure due to a lack of patience can quickly lead to heavy costs. However, the deleveraging phase also helps improve the market environment. Reducing leveraged positions can lower the risk of cascading liquidations, allowing spot demand to play a greater role in market pricing, thereby helping Bitcoin establish a more robust market structure.

Storage channel prices move first, enterprise-level granules are brewing a price increase

Multiple storage industry insiders have revealed that some leading companies have verbally informed channel partners of their intention to raise prices for enterprise-grade chips. The official price increase notice has not yet been formally issued, but prices on the channel side have already begun to move, with several agents confirming the aforementioned price increase signals. One agent from SK Hynix stated that prices are increasing daily and observed that the second-hand recovery prices are continuously rising, driving overall quotes upward; the price adjustment path involves provincial agents adjusting prices weekly, with the prices of agency products being passed down further.One agent from Samsung indicated that this round of price increases is not a universal rise across all categories, but is mainly concentrated on the DRAM contract side and enterprise-grade SSDs at both the manufacturer and channel levels, rather than a comprehensive increase in consumer-grade NAND. This agent noted that the major demand still comes from data centers, while feedback from the grassroots level indicates that demand is generally average. Since the price increases are initially focused on the DRAM contract side and enterprise-grade SSD segment, when prices are transmitted from manufacturers outward, they first reach manufacturing companies and module manufacturers, rather than end consumers.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: The leverage liquidation in the cryptocurrency market has been relatively sufficient, and the short-term space for further decline is limited

In October, the U.S. CPI exceeded expectations. After the data was released, BTC briefly fell to around $73,000, and the market began to bet on a 50 basis point rate hike in December. In response, Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that the probability of a 50 basis point hike is low, and a 25 basis point increase remains the baseline scenario. The current decline is more akin to a pricing correction.There are three reasons: The Federal Reserve values the continuity of data, and historically, there are very few cases where a single month's CPI jump has changed the pace of rate hikes; a single month of exceeding expectations is insufficient to overturn the gradual path; the current inflation stickiness mainly stems from the lagged transmission of tariffs and rents, which will naturally diminish, and marginal employment is also weakening. The committee has no reason to impose aggressive tightening at the peak of transmission; the credit spread has widened from 93 basis points to 348 basis points, financial conditions have effectively tightened, and adding another 50 basis points would actively create financial stability risks.In the crypto market, funding rates have turned negative, and the open interest in perpetual contracts has decreased by nearly 20% in a week. The fear and greed index has fallen into the deep fear zone, and the clearing of leverage has been relatively sufficient, limiting the space for further short-term declines. However, an oversold situation does not mean an immediate rebound; confirmation is needed for CPI to fall in the next two months. If inflation exceeds expectations for two consecutive months and a 50 basis point hike is realized, a trend decline will begin, but currently, this scenario seems unlikely.Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

Wintermute: Bitcoin needs to remain cautious before re-establishing above the 50-week moving average at $75,500

Wintermute stated that after the U.S. midterm elections, the Democratic Party regained control of both houses of Congress, and the market began to reassess the regulatory risks faced by the AI industry. The AI trading, which was previously boosted by favorable Washington policies, has started to cool down. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates during the correction of AI assets, the tightening of liquidity and the decline in risk appetite may simultaneously exert pressure on the cryptocurrency market.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin rebounded to $81,000 last Wednesday but subsequently retraced most of its gains, dropping to a low of $73,500 on Sunday, close to the 200-day moving average of $73,000. Bitcoin's weekly close fell below the 50-week moving average of about $75,500, ending a previous streak of seven consecutive weeks above that moving average. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion last week, marking the largest single-week outflow since June and erasing the cumulative net inflow for the year; only Wednesday recorded a net inflow of funds for the week.Meanwhile, over $1 billion in positions were liquidated in the market, with Ethereum's liquidation scale exceeding that of Bitcoin. Altcoins performed even worse than Bitcoin, with NEAR, HYPE, ENA, and LIT all dropping more than 10%. In contrast, ZEC became one of the few large-cap assets to rise against the trend, indicating that there is still some market demand for privacy-focused projects. Looking ahead, the market needs to remain cautious until Bitcoin reclaims the 50-week moving average. If Bitcoin's daily close falls below $73,000 and the 200-day moving average, the next key level to watch will be $68,000, and altcoins that previously rebounded significantly may face greater selling pressure. If Bitcoin's daily close reclaims and stabilizes at $80,000, and the spot Bitcoin ETF resumes weekly net inflows, a shift to a more positive outlook may be possible.In the short term, attention should be paid to the U.S. CPI data for October to be released on Tuesday, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month. Additionally, Cisco and Applied Materials will report earnings on Thursday, U.S. PPI data will be released on Friday, and NVIDIA is scheduled to announce its financial results on November 17. The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on interest rates from December 8 to 9, with the market currently estimating a probability of about 77% for an interest rate hike.
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