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Federal Reserve spokesperson: The interest rate hike in December is almost certain, with the focus shifting to the magnitude and pace of the rate increases

According to the Wall Street Journal, Nick Timiraos, known as the "mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve," wrote that after the third consecutive strong inflation report was released, a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December is almost certain. Market focus is shifting to the magnitude of the rate hike and the subsequent pace, including a 25 basis point hike at each meeting, a one-time hike of 50 basis points, or signaling multiple consecutive hikes of 25 basis points.Nick Timiraos pointed out that the Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting from December 8 to 9, and the bigger question is whether this rate hike is a moderate adjustment envisioned by several officials, with two to three more hikes, or the beginning of a sustained effort to suppress the economy and lower inflation.Previously, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, who supported maintaining interest rates last week, stated that if the core price increase in October reaches about 0.3% month-over-month, the Federal Reserve should consider a 50 basis point hike in December, and the latest published data happens to align with this scenario. Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan also hinted after the data release that, given the current inflation pressures, it may be necessary to accelerate the pace of rate hikes. The relevant tactical choices are usually decided by the Federal Reserve Chair.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: The leverage liquidation in the cryptocurrency market has been relatively sufficient, and the short-term space for further decline is limited

In October, the U.S. CPI exceeded expectations. After the data was released, BTC briefly fell to around $73,000, and the market began to bet on a 50 basis point rate hike in December. In response, Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that the probability of a 50 basis point hike is low, and a 25 basis point increase remains the baseline scenario. The current decline is more akin to a pricing correction.There are three reasons: The Federal Reserve values the continuity of data, and historically, there are very few cases where a single month's CPI jump has changed the pace of rate hikes; a single month of exceeding expectations is insufficient to overturn the gradual path; the current inflation stickiness mainly stems from the lagged transmission of tariffs and rents, which will naturally diminish, and marginal employment is also weakening. The committee has no reason to impose aggressive tightening at the peak of transmission; the credit spread has widened from 93 basis points to 348 basis points, financial conditions have effectively tightened, and adding another 50 basis points would actively create financial stability risks.In the crypto market, funding rates have turned negative, and the open interest in perpetual contracts has decreased by nearly 20% in a week. The fear and greed index has fallen into the deep fear zone, and the clearing of leverage has been relatively sufficient, limiting the space for further short-term declines. However, an oversold situation does not mean an immediate rebound; confirmation is needed for CPI to fall in the next two months. If inflation exceeds expectations for two consecutive months and a 50 basis point hike is realized, a trend decline will begin, but currently, this scenario seems unlikely.Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

first_img Brian Hong joined the social trading application fomo, responsible for the Asia-Pacific region

Brian Hong announced that he has joined the social trading application fomo, responsible for the Asia-Pacific region. Brian Hong previously publicly identified as the head of growth for consumer blockchain Abstract in the Asia-Pacific region. He stated that many high-quality trading ideas around the world have never left the language in which they were originally written; traders in Seoul and New York can focus on the same asset for months but do not have access to each other's work. Both parties see the same prices, but the ideas behind the trades remain trapped in circles separated by language, local communities, and existing information flows.He wrote that for nearly a decade, he has been connecting products, services, and information between the East and West. Products are now easier to cross borders, but ideas are not; he feels this most acutely in the market, where some ideas with significant upside potential remain confined to a single language and community. He stated that fomo is the first product that makes him feel this situation can change, as it does not require consideration of chains or cross-chain bridges; it faces a single market where information flow shows what people are actually buying. A trade does not need translation; ideas from Seoul can reach New York on their own, with attribution remaining with the originator.Brian Hong expressed that this feeling has not faded, and he agrees with fomo's direction and development team, and will help grow a product he already uses daily. He referred to the Asia-Pacific as the most important region for this matter, but the Asia-Pacific is not a single location; the languages, cultures, and platforms differ. Most of what happens here exists in communities that are not visible to the outside world. Introducing users is only part of the work; a larger part is putting ideas that the world has yet to see onto the same map. He has opened private messages to traders, large players, creators, and chain builders in the region.
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