macro

In July, the US CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI increased by 2.5% year-on-year, overall in line with market expectations. As the market continues to assess the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy path, the impact of macro changes on asset allocation and trading strategies is continuously strengthening, further enhancing institutions' focus on liquidity management and trading execution efficiency.Against this backdrop, Gate institutions are continuously improving professional trading infrastructure. According to the transparency report released by the platform in July, Gate CrossEx added one mainstream exchange and 23 trading pairs, launched RPI Orders, reduced the highest fees of multiple exchanges by 50%, and introduced new APIs for market data, funding rates, batch order cancellations, and several WebSocket features; by optimizing concurrent order placement and execution feedback delays, system performance improved by 50%, while the launch of Colo services further reduced trading latency.In addition, SuperLink continues to optimize Fireblocks Gas management and settlement processes, further enhancing institutions' cross-platform asset management and trading collaboration capabilities. In the future, Gate institutions will continue to advance infrastructure upgrades around core capabilities such as trading execution, liquidity, and cross-platform collaboration, providing professional investors with more efficient and stable institutional-level trading services.

Bitfinex's latest report indicates that Bitcoin buying is returning, but the current rebound still mainly relies on improvements in the macroeconomic environment rather than catalysts from the cryptocurrency market itself.

According to Jinshi reports, French President Macron stated that the EU and its partners will continue to increase pressure on Russia, including through sanctions.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released the August Bitcoin market outlook, stating that BTC is currently down about 50% from the cycle high of $126,200 set in October 2025, with prices approaching the on-chain average holding cost. It is expected that August will likely maintain a volatile trend. The report suggests that the most probable scenario for August (with a probability of about 55%) is that BTC will trade in the range of $57,700 to $67,000, potentially closing at $60,000 to $64,000 by the end of the month.The bearish scenario (30% probability) involves a drop below $57,700, further testing the on-chain realized price of about $52,800; the bullish scenario (15% probability) requires a stable position above $67,000, along with continuous inflows of ETF funds, a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, and a weakening dollar, targeting $71,000 to $74,000. The current valuation is close to the on-chain cost area, and the spot Bitcoin ETF continues to see net inflows, providing support for the market; however, the high interest rate environment, sustained high U.S. Treasury yields, and a relatively strong dollar still limit the upside potential for risk assets. The report also reminds to pay attention to the impact of macro events such as U.S. non-farm employment, CPI, and the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting on market liquidity.

Analyst Murphy stated that there have been consecutive transfers of over 65,000 BTC in a single day in the past two days (excluding internal transfers within the same entity), leading to a significant decrease in the net holdings of long-term holders (LTH). He pointed out that LTH net holdings have changed the previously continuous upward trend since May, remaining stagnant until July, which is a rare phenomenon in the past year.Murphy mentioned that nearly 14,000 BTC were transferred to exchanges, for example, a publicly listed company under Trump transferred 2,628 BTC to the Crypto.com exchange, which is part of this. The remaining destinations and purposes of the LTH net reduction are still unknown.He also listed current macro-level risk points that may impact BTC, including the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut with a 9 to 3 split vote, conflicts in the Middle East and oil prices, the highly concentrated valuation of the AI sector in the US stock market relying on debt and private credit financing, and the yen carry trade positions accumulating again to a nearly historically extreme net short state, while also noting that the sensitivity of the current BTC chip structure may amplify the above risks.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "Trump Public Insult Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Emmanuel Macron" experienced significant fluctuations, rising from 2.1% an hour ago to the current 17.6% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Trump Public Insult Prediction" event's sub-market "Macron" saw the probability of the "yes" option experience severe fluctuations, dropping from 48% an hour ago to the current 25% (a fluctuation of 23%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

This week, the US stock market is facing a highly overlapping event window: On Tuesday, focus on earnings reports from companies like V, GEV, KO, BA; on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced, along with earnings from MSFT, META, QCOM, ARM, HOOD; on Thursday, the preliminary GDP and June PCE will be released on the same day, with earnings reports from AAPL, AMZN, COIN; on Friday, pay attention to the employment cost index and earnings from XOM, ABBV. WEEX Labs believes that the policy statement, technology earnings, and inflation clues will jointly influence the interest rate path and technology stock valuations, with funds possibly rotating around large tech, AI infrastructure, and interest rate-sensitive sectors, leading to further short-term market volatility. Currently, the WEEX coin stock 0 fee activity is ongoing.

Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode released the report "Charting Crypto Q3 2026," maintaining a neutral outlook on the crypto market.The report shows that on-chain data indicates Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, but the Fed's hawkish stance, weak spot ETF demand, and geopolitical risks continue to pressure the market outlook.

This week, the focus of the U.S. stock market will shift to the second-quarter earnings reports of tech giants such as Alphabet, Tesla, and Intel, while also paying attention to leading indicators, initial jobless claims, and PMI preliminary values. The market will primarily examine AI capital expenditures, consumer resilience, and interest rate expectations. Key events include: on Monday, the release of leading indicators and DPZ's earnings report; on Tuesday, attention to earnings reports from GM, SCHW, and others; on Wednesday, GOOGL and TSLA will release their earnings reports; on Thursday, initial jobless claims data will be released, along with INTC's earnings report; on Friday, PMI preliminary values and new home sales data will be announced.WEEX Labs believes that this week, AI infrastructure, semiconductors, EVs, and the financial sector may become the main directions of market volatility. Investors need to focus on corporate earnings guidance and the signals released by employment data, managing their positions rationally.

According to Jinshi News, Capital Economics stated that the yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds will further narrow in the coming months, and the ongoing escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a complete inversion of the yield curve. The reason for this difference is that the expected rise in short-term real interest rates exceeds that of long-term real interest rates, with the Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points over the next year.

According to the official announcement, Huobi HTX will hold a themed live broadcast today at 20:00 titled "Ceasefire Ended, Oil Prices Soaring Above 75, STRATEGY's First Loss in Selling Coins: Can BTC's Macroeconomic Narrative Hold Up?" At that time, crypto KOLs such as Huabai Blockchain, Honest Little Taoist, Crypto.0824, and OxPink will gather in the live broadcast room to engage in in-depth discussions on recent market hotspots such as the repeated situation in the Middle East and the strong upward trend of international oil prices. They will also analyze BTC's future trends and opportunities and risk management strategies for crypto asset allocation in conjunction with expectations of Federal Reserve policies, providing investors with multi-dimensional market observations and trading ideas.

According to Jinshi reports, Russian President Putin stated that based on macroeconomic indicators, the key interest rate should be lowered.

According to QCP Capital, it has been 12 days since the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, and both sides experienced military conflicts again over the weekend, each accusing the other of violating the 60-day ceasefire agreement, putting pressure on the prospects for the second round of negotiations. Oil prices remain around $70, but if supply recovers slower than expected, there is still an upward risk for oil prices.In the cryptocurrency market, the implied volatility of BTC and ETH continues to rise, with increased demand for BTC put options in the $55,000-$58,000 range expiring in July. There has been a continuous net outflow from spot ETFs, concerns related to Strategy, and the pressure from the US stock market has weighed on market sentiment. However, there was also a significant buying interest in BTC call options at $64,000 expiring on the 17th. This week, the market will focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the ECB forum, as well as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and US non-farm payroll data. Given the low liquidity ahead of the holiday, market volatility is expected to remain high.

According to Jinshi reports, the tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated sharply this week, with mutual attacks leading to the collapse of a fragile ceasefire agreement that had lasted for about three weeks. The inflationary pressure driven by rising oil prices has reignited expectations for the Federal Reserve to tighten its policies. During the same period, U.S. stocks largely ignored geopolitical uncertainties, with the "AI trading" frenzy regaining momentum, as the S&P 500 index approached an all-time high, and both it and the Nasdaq recorded a consecutive weekly gain. SK Hynix's ADR surged 13% on its first day, with a fundraising amount of $26.5 billion, making it the highest fundraising foreign company IPO in U.S. stock market history.In the coming week, the U.S.-Iran situation, U.S. CPI and other economic data, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials will capture Wall Street's attention. There is particular anticipation for whether Federal Reserve Chairman Waller can provide more clues about the interest rate outlook under questioning in Congress, although his determination to cancel forward guidance leaves little room for optimism. The macro data events for next week are as follows:MondayFederal Reserve Governor Waller speaksTuesdayU.S. ADP employment change for the week ending June 27U.S. June CPI and core CPIFederal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the House Financial Services Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearingWednesday2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a fireside chatU.S. June PPI and core PPIFOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams speaksFederal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearingFederal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditionsThursdayU.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, U.S. June retail sales month-on-month, U.S. July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan speaksFederal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson speaks on the economy and monetary policy

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a themed debate titled "Bear Market Trap or Bull Market Start? How to Identify the June Rebound in the Crypto Market with World Cup Enthusiasm + Macroeconomic Warming" today at 20:00 (UTC+8). At that time, the affirmative debaters Crypto Monkey Uncle, Michill, Yang Shao, and Sincere Little Taoist will face off against the negative debaters George, 7w, Meta, and Mike Banana. They will conduct an in-depth discussion from multiple dimensions such as macroeconomics, capital flow, market cycles, and hot narratives, analyzing the driving logic and potential risks behind this round of market trends for investors.