macro

According to Jinshi reports, this week, significant signs of peace have emerged in the US-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, greatly easing geopolitical risks. Next week, it is worth paying close attention to whether these two geopolitical conflicts can further cool down. In addition, next week's macro events will focus on the US April CPI data, as detailed below:Tuesday 15:15, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a panel discussion on monetary policy;Tuesday 20:15, US ADP employment change for the week ending April 25;Tuesday 20:30, US April CPI data;Wednesday 04:30, US API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 8;Wednesday 20:30, US April PPI year-on-year and month-on-month;Friday 05:30, Fed Governor Barr will deliver a speech;Friday 21:15, US April industrial production month-on-month.Finally, next week the Federal Reserve will undergo significant personnel changes. Nominee Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to be confirmed by the Senate on Monday and will officially take over from Powell on May 15.In terms of US stocks, as of this Friday, a new round of surges has pushed the S&P 500 index up 8% cumulatively in 2026, continuing to rise on the basis of achieving double-digit returns for three consecutive years. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has risen nearly 13% year-to-date, with both major indices reaching all-time highs. Although the first quarter earnings season is nearing its end, corporate reports will still be a key driver of stock prices in the coming days.AI

According to Gate Ventures' latest weekly report, as the situation in the Middle East has temporarily eased and energy prices have fallen, global risk appetite has marginally improved, stock indices have reached new highs, and both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields have declined. However, gold remains strong, indicating that while the market is flowing back into risk assets, the demand for safe-haven assets has not completely faded. Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market has seen a slight rebound overall, with BTC and ETH rising 4.3% and 3.3% respectively. ETF funds continue to see net inflows, but market sentiment remains cautious. Mainstream assets have performed relatively steadily with institutional support, while the recovery in the altcoin market remains limited.At the industry level, regulatory advancements and infrastructure development continue to deepen. France supports promoting the euro stablecoin plan under the MiCA framework to enhance the competitiveness of the local currency system; Circle has launched USDC Bridge to further improve the cross-chain liquidity structure of stablecoins; the X platform has introduced the Cashtags feature to accelerate the integration of trading and social scenarios. In terms of investment and financing, a total of 12 financing deals were disclosed this week, with a total amount of $41.8 million, among which Paxos Labs completed a $12 million financing focused on compliant DeFi infrastructure development, reflecting that capital is still continuously laying out around compliance and underlying capability upgrades.

According to Jinshi reports, global markets significantly rebounded over the past week driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, but core uncertainties remain unresolved. Iran once announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rapid decline in oil prices, a broad strengthening of risk assets, U.S. stocks reaching new highs, a weakening dollar, and gold approaching the $4900 mark. However, Iran subsequently signaled that it "is still under military control," combined with the U.S. maintaining sanctions against Iran, which has heightened market concerns about the volatility of the situation.On the macro level, the biggest variable next week will still be the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations. U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations may advance over the weekend and warned that if an agreement is not reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire could end, and there is a risk of renewed conflict; meanwhile, Iran's attitude towards negotiations remains cautious, especially with significant differences on key issues such as uranium enrichment. The market has currently shifted from "pricing in conflict escalation" to "pricing in a path to easing," but any sudden changes could still trigger sharp asset fluctuations.In terms of interest rate expectations, the decline in energy prices has alleviated inflationary pressures, and the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year have risen to about 60%. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will attend a Senate hearing next week, and his policy stance (especially whether it leans dovish) will become an important variable affecting gold and risk assets.On Tuesday at 20:30, U.S. March retail sales month-on-month;On Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18;On Thursday at 21:45, U.S. April S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI preliminary;On Friday at 22:00, U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value, one-year inflation expectations final value;In the short term, the market's main focus will revolve around three major variables: progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, oil price trends, and signals from the Federal Reserve.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a live broadcast today at 20:00 (UTC+8) on the theme "Collapse of US-Iran Negotiations, Return of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Can Bitcoin Still Serve as a Safe Haven?" At that time, crypto KOLs such as Oxpink, Domingo, Michill, Amber, AlanSun, and Qie Ge will be invited to attend and discuss hot topics such as the impact of geopolitical conflicts, oil price fluctuations, and increased uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies on the crypto market, as well as whether the market has entered an "institution-led phase."

According to Cryptopolitan, Coinbase Institutional has given a neutral outlook for the second quarter market, citing macro and geopolitical uncertainties such as the Iran conflict that make predictions highly unreliable.Coinbase referenced a Bank of America fund manager survey indicating that cash holdings rose nearly one percentage point to 4.3% in a single month, the fastest accumulation rate in five years. Despite the recent S&P 500 experiencing declines of three to four standard deviations, Bitcoin only underwent a one standard deviation pullback, showing relative strength. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded approximately $471 million in net inflows on April 6, marking the strongest single-day performance in six weeks, with BlackRock's IBIT leading the way.The institutional holding ratio has increased from 24% a year ago to about 38%, with hedge funds, pension funds, and others collectively holding over $40 billion in shares. Morgan Stanley began listing its Bitcoin ETF on the NYSE on April 8, becoming the first major U.S. bank to directly issue a spot Bitcoin ETF.

QCP's weekly report pointed out that against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and rising oil price volatility, Bitcoin remains around $67,000, demonstrating a certain level of resilience; Ethereum shows steady performance, while altcoins lag behind.Market positions have been cleared, selling pressure has eased, and short-term hedging demand remains active, indicating that the market is no longer overly crowded. There is indeed support, but it is relatively limited. There is buying support for Bitcoin, but a comprehensive chase for higher prices has not yet emerged.

In response to today's significant decline in the U.S. stock market, with over $1 trillion in market value evaporating in a single day, Bitget CEO Gracy Chen pointed out that this round of adjustment reflects that global markets are reassessing macro risks at a faster pace. As rising oil prices once again elevate inflation concerns, the impact of geopolitical changes is no longer limited to the energy market but is beginning to more directly affect global capital allocation.Gracy believes that, in this context, Bitcoin will still maintain high volatility in the short term, but compared to previous phases where risk appetite sharply declined, Bitcoin's performance this time is relatively robust. This reflects that the overall leverage in the crypto market has significantly decreased, thereby limiting the scale of forced liquidations that typically amplify downward pressure during market stress. This relative resilience releases a more noteworthy signal that, in an increasingly fragmented macro environment, Bitcoin is starting to be viewed by some portfolios as a more neutral allocation choice.

According to Beincrypto, French President Macron will deliver a speech at Paris Blockchain Week on April 15. The event will take place from April 15 to 16 at the Carrousel du Louvre, and he will also become the first sitting G7 head of state to speak at an institutional-level conference focused on digital assets. This move is seen as a historic milestone and further confirms France's institutional leadership position in the European digital finance sector.President Macron will outline the strategic priorities for shaping European digital sovereignty to approximately 10,000 attendees, including the development of stablecoins denominated in euros, the launch of the digital euro, and the establishment of relevant regulatory frameworks to promote Europe's core position in the global digital economy. The conference will also invite several senior French government officials directly involved in European digital asset regulation, stablecoin policy, and the construction of institutional financial infrastructure to attend.

Bitcoin is currently maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern. Under the multiple pressures of the macro environment, market liquidity continues to be constrained, and the price direction remains unclear. Analysis indicates that the interplay of energy prices, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks has led to a compression of liquidity, causing the market to enter a "wait-and-see period." The current market is not lacking in structure but rather in incremental funds.Recently, Bitcoin has stabilized after experiencing volatility, with selling pressure easing somewhat, while ETF fund flows have shown a slight net inflow. However, spot demand remains weak, and the imbalance between supply and demand limits price breakthroughs. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has found support in the $67,000-$69,000 range, with a key resistance level forming around $72,000. Analysts state that there is a "liquidity gap" above this range, and once effectively broken, the price could quickly rise to the $82,000 area; however, until demand shows significant improvement, the market will continue to maintain an oscillating pattern.On the macro level, high energy prices, global central banks maintaining high interest rates, and uncertainties in the Middle East collectively exacerbate market concerns about "stagflation" risks. Kraken Research points out that the combination of slowing growth and inflationary pressures complicates the policy path and suppresses the performance of risk assets. Against this backdrop, the market has entered a "liquidity compression phase."Bitunix analysis suggests that the mismatch of multiple macro factors has compressed funds into a narrow range, with Bitcoin acting more as a risk appetite indicator rather than a trend trading target. In terms of funds, the March spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $1.5 billion, an improvement from the net outflow in February, but still below January levels, indicating cautious institutional fund inflows. The derivatives market is leaning defensive, with funding rates remaining negative and high demand for downside protection; meanwhile, spot trading volume has not shown sustained growth, indicating limited market participation. Overall, Bitcoin has not yet formed a clear breakthrough or downward trend, and is currently closer to a "accumulation and consolidation" phase, with future movements still dependent on macro data, policy signals, and changes in geopolitical situations.

In the options market, implied volatility has slightly retreated, and the curve maintains a moderate positive spread. Downside hedging demand still exists but has not reached extreme levels, and geopolitical premiums continue to be reflected in volatility pricing.Currently, BTC has neither fully followed the high beta logic of the stock market nor formed stable safe-haven demand. Market trends are still primarily driven by news, and a trending market is yet to form until macro or geopolitical situations become clearer.

According to The Block, the Algorand Foundation announced a 25% staff reduction on March 18, 2026. The foundation stated that this layoff is a measure to respond to global macroeconomic uncertainty and the overall downturn in the cryptocurrency market, and it is not a hasty decision. It is reported that the total number of employees at the foundation is less than 200.Currently, the foundation holds approximately $38 million in dollar-denominated assets and 1.1 million ALGO tokens, with ALGO having a market capitalization of about $805.8 million, ranking 78th globally. The foundation stated that it will continue to focus on the long-term development and ecosystem construction of the Algorand protocol. This layoff is a reflection of the recent wave of layoffs in the cryptocurrency industry, with several projects such as OP Labs, Messari, and Block also announcing layoffs recently.

According to Jinshi News, Guolian Minsheng Macro stated that the Federal Reserve still has room for interest rate cuts this year. The impact of oil prices is more reflected in the pace and will not change the overall trend of interest rate cuts. Although the rate cut is delayed, it will eventually happen.

Bitcoin continues to strengthen under macro pressure, with prices rising about 2% and breaking through $72,000, outperforming the U.S. stock market. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index futures fell during the Asian trading session, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) broke above 100. This trend typically puts pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies, but the crypto market overall still maintained an upward trajectory that day.In the derivatives market, the open interest (OI) in the crypto industry's futures increased by 5% to $10.76 billion in the past 24 hours, indicating continued inflow of funds. Among them, Bitcoin's OI rose to 687,200 BTC, the highest since February 25; Ethereum's OI climbed to 13.72 million ETH. Additionally, the open interest for tokens like XRP, SOL, ADA, and SUI also saw significant increases. Furthermore, Bitcoin's 30-day annualized implied volatility (BVIV) dropped to 55%, marking a two-week low, indicating a decrease in market volatility and providing conditions for further increases in spot prices. Meanwhile, the ongoing escalation of the Iran conflict keeps oil prices around $100 per barrel, but Bitcoin remains relatively stable amid geopolitical and macro uncertainties.

A macro model combining the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the Chinese 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y × CN10Y) has recently shown an "extremely accurate" bullish crossover signal, which may provide guidance for the next round of Bitcoin's rise. Historical data indicates that this indicator has issued similar signals before bull markets in 2013, 2017, 2020-2021, and 2023, corresponding to Bitcoin price increases of approximately 8700%, 1900%, 600%, and over 350%, respectively.In addition, on-chain data also shows that whale addresses (wallets holding 1000-10000 BTC) have re-entered an accumulation phase during the recent price pullback, similar to behaviors observed near previous market bottoms. Analysis suggests that if Bitcoin stabilizes and rebounds near the 200-week moving average, the price may test $100,000 around August. However, if it fails to break through the key resistance level of $78,000, there remains a risk of forming a "bull trap."