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first_img The Pentagon prohibits the U.S. military from betting on prediction markets using military information

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has prohibited all Pentagon personnel from using non-public information to place bets on upcoming military operations, involving prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. In a memo sent to senior Pentagon officials and defense agencies on Tuesday, he stated that all Department of Defense personnel are prohibited from using non-public information for financial transactions, with the relevant restrictions covering both classified and unclassified information.Austin wrote in the memo that adversaries will observe movements in these markets, and the safety of U.S. military personnel often depends on the enemy not knowing what is about to happen. He also pointed out that, aside from operational security, financial betting can distort judgment: a logistics personnel betting on the date of an operation will be concerned about that date, and an analyst holding a position on the outcome will also be concerned about that outcome.Before this directive was issued, U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke was charged in April for allegedly profiting over $400,000 on Polymarket by using classified information regarding the operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Prosecutors claimed he participated in the planning and execution of the operation and used advance knowledge to bet on the outcome of Maduro's ousting; he pleaded not guilty to all charges. In February, Israeli authorities also arrested and charged a military reservist and a civilian for allegedly using classified information to bet on events related to Israeli strikes against Iran on Polymarket.

1% of customer contributions come from Anthropic, while corporate Token spending has nearly stagnated

According to Ramp's tracking of payment data from over 70,000 U.S. companies, approximately 80% of Anthropic and OpenAI's enterprise revenue comes from the top 1% of clients. In August and September, enterprise Token spending saw nearly zero growth for two consecutive months; although it reached a historical high at the beginning of October, it was only 1.5% higher than the peak in August.According to Ornn data, the actual Token price index for Anthropic fell from over $1.70 in mid-September to $0.83, a decline of more than 50%, while OpenAI's corresponding index was $0.45. According to YipitData, the top 1% of Anthropic's clients contributed 46% of revenue in August, up from 25% a year ago. Ramp data shows that the paid adoption rate for enterprise AI in September only increased by 0.62 percentage points to 55.9%. Ramp's chief economist Ara Kharazian believes that growth is shifting from expanding the paid user base to enhancing the depth of use among existing users.Goldman Sachs warns that the growth rate of Token demand must exceed the decline in prices to support sustained investment in computing power. Apollo's chief economist Torsten Slok pointed out that companies are highly sensitive to computing power prices, and price reductions may not necessarily lead to sufficient new demand. Goldman Sachs data also shows that the realized return on invested capital for Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle has dropped from 40% to 25%, the lowest since 2016.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Before the interest rate meeting, Bitcoin is likely to continue its fluctuations, with the lower edge of 80,000 USD possibly being tested first

Bitcoin has been trapped in the range of $80,000 to $84,000 for the past two weeks. Huobi HTX's chief analyst Cloud believes that this is essentially a balance of two opposing forces: ETFs have seen a net outflow for two consecutive weeks, while exchange holdings continue to flow out, and long-term holders are only moderately cashing out. In the week leading up to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Bitcoin is likely to continue waiting in this range. The CME has only priced in a 16% chance of a rate hike in October, while economists generally believe it is close to a 50-50 chance. This discrepancy in pricing and opinions will make funds hesitant to bet in advance.If a direction is chosen in advance, the possibility of a downward test is slightly higher: the funding rate remains high, and the options skew continues to lean towards puts, indicating that bulls have not yet cleared out, and the demand for downside protection is still increasing. However, there has been effective support formed multiple times below $80,000 in the past month, making a downward breakout more likely to be a false breakout.Confirmation signals for a breakout are divided into two groups: for an upward breakout, the daily close needs to be above $84,200, with a cumulative net inflow of over $500 million into ETFs for three consecutive days, and the funding rate not exceeding 15%; for a downward breakout, it must fall below $79,800, with a single-week ETF outflow exceeding $500 million, while exchange funds turn into net inflows. The true source of direction will come from the interest rate decision announced at midnight on October 29, Beijing time, and the nearly 89% pricing for a rate hike in December.Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment products.

first_img Circular Founder: Axiom's validator bribes received through Lunar are only about 1% traceable to on-chain incentives

The founder of the Solana landing service analysis platform Circular, Ben, stated that he believes the trading terminal Axiom charges traders through misleading "validator bribes" and routes the related funds to the landing service Lunar under HelloMoon. Ben mentioned that since April, the bribes paid by Axiom traders to Lunar amount to approximately $55.7 million, but the latest 30-day analysis shows that only about 1% can be traced back to additional on-chain validator incentives, and he inquired whether Axiom shares in this tip revenue.Circular claims that it reconstructed the activities related to Lunar and Axiom from April 26, 2026, to October 19, based on on-chain payment flows: during this period, Lunar received 530,166 SOL in bribes, valued at approximately $55.67 million based on its quoted price of $105/SOL, corresponding to 189 million successful payments of bribes to Lunar from Axiom transactions. In the last 30 days, 45 million Axiom transactions made payments to Lunar, accounting for 80.6% of successful Axiom transactions; Lunar received 138,964 SOL, approximately $14.59 million, of which about 1,579 SOL was attributed to additional on-chain validator incentives, accounting for 1.14%.Ben also cited on-chain cases from September 26 and October 7, stating that after he paid bribes as suggested by the Axiom interface, the identifiable additional priority fee increase was about 1% of the amount paid to Lunar. He indicated that Axiom controls transaction routing and fee recommendations and has published its associated Lunar address on GitHub for verification. The above content represents Circular's on-chain statistics and personal judgment, and the post also states that the related proportions do not exclude other service costs or off-chain payments, and its estimate of the platform's revenue share is not based on tracked payments to Axiom.

first_img coinbilly: has fully acquired Invisible Friends

Coinbilly, an early team member of Invisible Friends, announced that he has fully acquired the brand, covering smart contracts, intellectual property, remaining inventory, and After Effects files. He stated that he began working with the brand five years ago and has been pushing for the acquisition for more than the past two years, involving communication with multiple lawyers. The original artist, Markus Magnusson, created the initial artwork but will not participate in the subsequent operations.According to his review, Invisible Friends consists of 5,000 invisible characters that walk in a loop, with the audience only able to see the characters' clothing or the items they hold. In November 2021, the project released a teaser, with the early team consisting of Coinbilly, James Curran, and developer Mikker. On February 23, 2022, a charity auction raised $1.3 million and was distributed to 13 charities; subsequently, the public minting floor price was set at 12 ETH, approximately $30,000 at the time, with a trading volume of about 10,000 to 15,000 ETH before the reveal. The project also collaborated with Shopify, Snapchat, Sotheby's, and Kith.Coinbilly stated that the focus moving forward will be on physical products, character animations, experimental digital content, and brand collaborations, aiming to introduce the brand to users who have never encountered NFTs. Holders will receive priority benefits, and he plans to soon launch a commemorative open version for holders for free. He also mentioned that he will answer questions on Discord and X, and will livestream an explanation on Twitch at 1 PM Eastern Time the following afternoon.
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