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first_img Delphi Digital: Electricity is a greater constraint on AI computing power deployment than chips

On October 29, the cryptocurrency research institution Delphi Digital released a report titled "The AI Boom Has a Power Problem," authored by Accelxr. The report states that deployable AI computing power depends on chip supply, as well as sites that are powered, cooled, and connected to the grid. Electricity is harder to supplement in the short term than chips, as chip production capacity can expand quarterly, while new power generation and transmission take years.The report cites data indicating that the PJM capacity auction has cleared at the price cap for three consecutive times, with the last two still falling short of reliability targets by 6.6 to 6.8 GW, marking the first time such a gap has occurred in the history of this auction. The scale of large load queues in Texas ERCOT increased from 63 GW at the end of 2024 to 474 GW in June, with about 90% being data centers; the governor requested an audit of the data centers in the queue in August, and ERCOT subsequently suspended power approval for data centers and cryptocurrency miners of 75 MW and above, including 17 projects that had passed stability studies.The report also states that U.S. data centers are expected to account for about 4.7% of the nation's electricity consumption in 2024, with LBNL predicting an increase to 9.5% to 15.3% by 2030, and EPRI estimating a maximum of 17%. In a 1 GW facility, chip depreciation is about $2.8 billion to $3.3 billion per year, equivalent to about $8 million per day. SemiAnalysis predicts that by 2028, the U.S. will have over 40 GW of data center capacity utilizing behind-the-meter power sources; the delivery cycle for large gas turbines is about five years, with GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries forming an oligopoly. Wood Mackenzie expects gas turbine prices to reach $600 per kilowatt by the end of 2027, nearly three times the level of 2019.

first_img Cryptocurrency research institution Delphi Digital: Speculation is the theme of this decade, and one should hold clearinghouses

On October 20, 2026, Jason Pagoulatos, a macro and market author at the cryptocurrency research institution Delphi Digital, released a report titled "The House Always Wins: Why Speculation is the Theme of This Decade." Pagoulatos stated that speculation has two long-term engines: constructive and lottery-like. Technological changes open the former, while fiscal and political pressures open the latter; historically, many famous bubbles have been driven by one or the other. Today, both are operating at high speed simultaneously, and the same batch of technologies is feeding both. He thus considers speculation itself as an investable theme, advocating for holding places for liquidation bets rather than holding the bets themselves.The data cited in the report includes that the U.S. federal deficit for fiscal year 2025 is $1.8 trillion, about 5.8% of GDP, with net interest around $1 trillion per year, exceeding defense spending. The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies states that the national median price for single-family homes in 2024 is 5.0 times the median household income; the National Association of Realtors reports that first-time homebuyers account for 21% of transactions, with a median age of 40. According to the American Gaming Association, legal sports betting amounts have risen from $6.6 billion in 2018 to $166.9 billion in 2025. Capital expenditures for Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta are approximately $416 billion for 2025, with guidance for 2026 totaling about $720 billion to $745 billion, plus Oracle.In terms of venues, Robinhood's event contract revenue for Q2 2026 is $156 million, higher than stock revenue of $129 million and crypto revenue of $100 million during the same period. Hyperliquid's expenses for 2025 are about $972 million, with transactions around $3 trillion. Kalshi reportedly raised funds at a valuation of about $40 billion, and Polymarket is set to relaunch in the U.S. by the end of 2025. The author also mentions that the most likely mistake is to hold inventory of the crowd and call it a casino. The report states that it is for educational and general informational purposes only and is not investment advice; the author may hold Bitcoin, HYPE, HOOD, and LIT, and affiliated party Delphi Ventures may invest in the assets or agreements discussed in the report.
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