lit

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 70.1%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 29.9%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged drops to 37.2%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points rises to 48.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 14.1%.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the market prediction event "2026 Wimbledon Men's Singles Champion" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Jannik Sinner" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in win probability, dropping from 58% an hour ago to the current 43% (a fluctuation of 15%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of the passage of the CLARITY Act in 2026 from 60% three weeks ago to 50%, due to the increasingly tight Senate schedule, the lack of a published merged text for the bill, no scheduled votes, and no public commitment from leadership. The bill has been listed as item 423 on the legislative calendar since it passed the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 with a vote of 15-9, but no motion to advance it has been scheduled to date.The report indicates that the Senate must announce a schedule by early July to complete voting before the August recess; otherwise, it will be postponed until September, when the upcoming midterm elections will make controversial votes harder to arrange. Priority legislation such as FISA Section 702 and the NDAA occupies a significant amount of time, and Trump's veto of the housing bill further exacerbates scheduling pressures.The substantive content of the bill has not yet been fully resolved, and ethical provisions remain a core controversy, with at least two Republican senators expected to vote against it, making Democratic support essential. The report suggests that if leadership clarifies a commitment to vote in July within the next two weeks, the probability of passage will rise to 60% or higher; if there is continued lack of progress, it will be further lowered.

The Chief Information Security Officer of Slow Fog, 23pds, posted on the X platform that curl recently fixed 18 security vulnerabilities, involving issues such as authentication bypass, memory safety, and host verification, among which one libcurl vulnerability has existed for about 25 years. The risks are not limited to the curl command line but also widely affect applications, SDKs, containers, firmware, gateways, and CI/CD environments that rely on libcurl. It is recommended to upgrade curl/libcurl as soon as possible and check for the use of old versions of libcurl, especially paying attention to mTLS, proxy authentication, and connection reuse scenarios.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 69.5%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 30.5%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged drops to 40.4%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points rises to 46.9%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 12.8%.

According to Cointelegraph, Swan CEO Cory Klippsten believes that the probability of Bitcoin reaching an all-time high in 2026 is only 10% to 15%.Cory Klippsten stated that some truly exogenous events must occur, and he believes that currently, it is unknown what events could cause the price of Bitcoin to double within the next six months.

CITIC Construction Investment Research Report points out that the following factors will determine the trend of the third quarter market: In terms of fundamentals, AI computing power remains at a high level of prosperity, with mid-year performance and overseas financial reports worth paying attention to. At the same time, since April, under pressure from the macro economy, the economic measures from the Politburo meeting in July are quite important; In terms of liquidity, external disturbances have increased, while internal conditions remain neutral; In terms of risk appetite, geopolitical events and the listing of industry giants will cause short-term fluctuations in the market. Considering the global tech stock correlation effect, major overseas computing powers such as Japan, South Korea, and the United States also need to be continuously monitored.In terms of industry allocation, although the logic of AI computing power remains unchanged, volatility has intensified. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and to position during pullbacks; lithium batteries are expected to welcome a peak season, and energy storage demand continues to warm up, while new energy presents opportunities for phased valuation recovery; dividends are expected to rebound from oversold conditions, with relatively high cost-performance ratios. Key areas to focus on: banks, coal, public utilities, AI, optical modules, storage, chips, industrial metals, lithium battery materials (VC), etc.

According to a report by Crypto Briefing, Fidelity Digital Assets stated in its report that by the end of 2025, the number of publicly traded companies holding at least 1,000 bitcoins will increase from 22 at the end of 2024 to 49. Currently, these companies control nearly 5% of the bitcoin supply. Among them, Strategy holds approximately 847,000 bitcoins, Twenty One Capital holds about 43,500 bitcoins, Metaplanet holds around 40,000 bitcoins, and MARA Holdings holds about 36,000 bitcoins.As of early June 2026, between 170 and 199 publicly traded companies hold approximately 1.265 million bitcoins, accounting for 6% of the total supply, valued at around $76 billion. In May 2026, publicly traded companies net added 43,557 bitcoins, with companies like SpaceX also appearing on the holding list.

Fidelity Digital Assets recently released a research report that positively addresses concerns about the long-term impact of Bitcoin halving on network security. The report's author, Fidelity research analyst Daniel Gray, pointed out that Bitcoin network security relies not only on block rewards but also on transaction fees, market incentives, and other economic forces that continuously motivate miners to maintain network security, making the cost of sustained attacks prohibitively high.On the data front, Gray noted that despite the ongoing reduction in block subsidies, the rise in Bitcoin prices has significantly offset this impact. The average daily income of miners has increased from about $26,300 during the first halving cycle to over $40,200 today. He wrote, "Despite the decrease in issuance, miner incentives and the resulting network security have historically strengthened alongside the rise in Bitcoin prices."Since the fourth halving in April 2024, the block subsidy for miners has decreased from 6.25 to 3.125 Bitcoins per block. However, the optimistic conclusions of the report starkly contrast with the current realities faced by publicly traded mining companies. Several industry analysts describe the current environment as one of the most challenging for mining on record, due to the simultaneous decline in block rewards, rising operational costs, and increased competition.In response, several mining companies have begun to transition to the AI and high-performance computing sectors, leveraging existing power infrastructure to meet AI computing demands. VanEck estimates that publicly listed mining companies may need to raise up to $50 billion in additional funds to fully transition to AI infrastructure, but the requirements for AI data centers regarding facility standards, cooling, power redundancy, and networking are far higher than those of traditional Bitcoin mining operations, making the transition challenges significant.

According to Jinshi reports, the United States has carried out military strikes against Iran on June 27 local time.

The probability of the prediction "Bitcoin will drop to $50,000 this year" on the prediction market platform Polymarket has risen to 63% (from 51% on June 16).In addition, the probability of dropping to $40,000 is 30%, and the probability of rising to $70,000 is 67%.

According to CoinDesk, Binance founder Zhao Changpeng stated that the significant decline in the crypto market in the first half of 2026 does not have a single cause. Geopolitical tensions, investors shifting funds to AI, and the typical four-year cycle of crypto may collectively lead to the continued decline of Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Bitcoin reached a historical high of over $126,000 last October and has since fallen by about 50%. At the beginning of this year, Bitcoin opened near $89,000, briefly rose to just above $96,000, and then dropped to around $60,000.In the long term, the crypto industry will continue to develop, and the demand for fintech will increase as the number of transactions continues to rise, so they are not concerned about the industry itself or short-term price fluctuations. They stated that emerging industries like AI are absorbing "hot money" from the crypto sector, but in the long run, this could be a positive factor. When discussing prediction markets, Zhao Changpeng mentioned that the rapid growth of prediction markets as tools for price discovery and liquidity is a good thing for the public.Regarding regulation, Zhao Changpeng stated that separate bills like the U.S. Clarity Act are important but more tactical matters that will not determine the long-term growth of the crypto industry. He hopes the Clarity Act can pass and believes that if U.S. legislation is delayed, other countries may take the lead in advancing rule-making.Zhao Changpeng also mentioned that if the U.S. Democratic Party regains control of at least one chamber of Congress after the midterm elections, there may be a review of Trump's support for the crypto industry and his pardons for crypto executives. Zhao Changpeng stated he "has nothing to hide" and is willing to cooperate if relevant parties seek information. When discussing political influence, Zhao Changpeng said he tries to stay away from U.S. politics but believes that any anti-crypto individuals may now lose a significant number of votes.

According to Jinshi reports, senior U.S. officials stated that the U.S. military attacked Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz region.

Web3 security company GoPlus Security pointed out that there has been a recent surge in smart contract vulnerability attacks, particularly targeting older contracts that have been deployed for many years. Attackers are leveraging AI technology to quickly discover and exploit these vulnerabilities.Recent typical incidents include:On June 9, a Token of Power (TOP) contract deployed 7 years ago was attacked on Ethereum, resulting in a loss of approximately $1.5 million;On May 25, a WUSD.fi contract deployed 3 years ago was attacked, resulting in a loss of approximately $200,000;On June 14 and June 18, Aztec Network was attacked twice in a row due to an old contract deployed 2 years ago, with total losses exceeding $4 million.GoPlus Security believes that traditional auditing methods are insufficient to effectively cover legacy contracts, and adopting AI-based Always-on Audit services may be the most effective solution currently available, capable of conducting security checks on old contracts in a short period while balancing reliability and cost.

OKX will launch the ROBO (Fabric Protocol) Flash Earn Lite event on July 3 at 15:00. Users can subscribe with BTC, ETH, OKB, or ROBO to share a reward of 20,000,000 ROBO. The event will run from July 3 at 15:00 to July 7 at 15:00 (UTC+8).

According to SolanaFloor, one of Central Asia's largest stock exchanges, the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) has listed Volatility Shares' Solana ETF (SOLZ). Earlier this year, KASE launched Kazakhstan's first licensed digital asset platform, which is built on the Solana network.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "World Cup Knockout Stage" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Ecuador" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 23.5% an hour ago to the current 77.5% (a fluctuation of 54%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Tether Asset Interoperability Protocol USDT0 announced that its cross-chain transfer volume has surpassed 10 billion USD. This milestone means that USDT0 has become the fastest project in history to reach a cross-chain stablecoin transfer scale of 10 billion USD in just 525 days.Data shows that approximately 6.5 million active wallets have adopted USDT0 as their settlement infrastructure, covering a variety of participants including exchanges, hedge funds, and ordinary users, with the network's cumulative token turnover rate reaching about 27 times.USDT0 stated that with the growth of AI Agent trading and institutional cross-chain settlement demand, the need for an "all-weather, low-friction, unified settlement system" is rapidly increasing.