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The Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates for a long time, which is bearish for Bitcoin but bullish for Circle and RWA

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that in the context of rising inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve may maintain a high interest rate policy for a long time, which will have three core impacts on the cryptocurrency market. He believes that as the U.S. CPI approaches 4%, the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has almost no room for interest rate cuts, and the market currently expects the first rate cut to be delayed until September 2027. Grayscale pointed out that long-term high interest rates will put pressure on "currency devaluation trades" such as Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin, like gold, is a non-yielding asset, higher real interest rates will increase the opportunity cost of holding dollar-denominated assets. However, it remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects and believes that regulatory benefits such as the CLARITY Act can partially offset the related pressures. In addition, it believes that a high interest rate environment will accelerate the tokenization of fixed income assets. Currently, the yields on dollar-denominated fixed income products are higher than those of most DeFi yields; for example, the USDC lending rate on Aave is about 3.6%, while the yield on short-term corporate bonds is about 4.5%. Grayscale also stated that stablecoin issuers will benefit from high interest rates. Since the GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoins from paying interest to users, issuers can retain the income from reserve assets. It estimates that for every 25 basis point increase in short-term rates, Circle's revenue will increase by approximately $190 million.

OpenAI may consider taking legal action against Apple regarding the integration of ChatGPT into Siri

According to Fortune, OpenAI is considering legal action against Apple due to dissatisfaction with the use and commercialization of ChatGPT after its integration into Siri. They believe that the collaboration has not effectively driven user conversion to ChatGPT's paid subscription, which may involve a breach of contractual expectations.Reports indicate that the two parties initially reached an agreement about two years ago, with Apple enhancing Siri's ability to handle complex questions by integrating ChatGPT, while OpenAI expanded user reach through Apple's ecosystem. However, OpenAI has expressed "disappointment" with the current presentation and traffic-driving effect of ChatGPT within Siri.It is reported that OpenAI's legal team has collaborated with external law firms to evaluate various response options, including potential litigation. Meanwhile, the relationship has become strained, and Apple is exploring further collaboration possibilities with OpenAI's competitors.Analysts believe that the core of the dispute lies in the commercial ownership and traffic distribution issues after AI capabilities are embedded in the platform, specifically whether "functionality is embedded but does not lead to subscription conversion" constitutes a substantial breach of commercial terms. Currently, neither party has publicly responded to the litigation matters.

JPMorgan: Without stronger network activity, Ethereum and altcoins may continue to underperform Bitcoin

JPMorgan analysts pointed out in their latest report that although the overall cryptocurrency market has recovered after the Iran conflict, Ethereum and other altcoins continue to underperform compared to Bitcoin. The analyst team led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated that this trend, which began in 2023, "is unlikely to change unless we see meaningful improvements in network activity, DeFi, and real-world applications."The analysts noted that since the conflict triggered a market sell-off, Bitcoin's recovery in spot ETF fund flows and institutional futures positions has outperformed Ethereum. The spot Bitcoin ETF has recovered about two-thirds of the previous outflows, while the spot Ethereum ETF has only recovered about one-third. CME futures positions also indicate that institutional investors are rebuilding their Bitcoin exposure more aggressively than Ethereum.Regarding the upcoming Ethereum upgrades (Glamsterdam and Hegota), analysts questioned whether they would be sufficient to improve ETH's relative performance. Upgrades over the past three years have primarily reduced Layer 2 transaction costs, which has weakened the Ethereum network's fee generation and token burn mechanisms, leading to an accelerated net supply growth and weakened price support. Whether the new upgrades can generate enough new demand and network activity remains to be seen.For altcoins, analysts believe that since 2023, weak liquidity conditions, low market depth and breadth, limited growth in DeFi activity, and recurring hacking and security incidents have collectively eroded market confidence and hindered the deployment of new capital.
18 hours ago

Federal Reserve's staunch dove governor Mylan announces resignation

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan officially submitted his resignation on Thursday, stating that he would vacate his seat on the Federal Reserve Board at or before the inauguration of the new chairman, Kevin Warsh.Milan took over her position on the board after Adriana Kugler's sudden resignation in August 2025. Milan has played a dissenting role in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is responsible for setting interest rates. In the six FOMC meetings he attended, he voted "no" each time.He stated that he believes personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, particularly in housing, will gradually return to normal levels, and reiterated that, given the lagging nature of monetary policy, he believes it is necessary to cut interest rates.Milan has consistently advocated for lower interest rates and opposed the three rate cuts of 25 basis points each approved by the FOMC in 2025, as he supported larger cuts. This year, he voted three times against the decision to maintain interest rates, instead supporting a 25 basis point cut.Additionally, he mentioned that he has been pushing for a more forward-looking monetary policy approach and believes the Federal Reserve "needs to better consider non-monetary factors and their impact on monetary policy." He specifically pointed out the effects of slowing population growth and reduced immigration on employment, as well as the deflationary pressures brought about by regulatory easing.

JPMorgan: Ethereum and altcoins may continue to underperform Bitcoin unless network activity improves significantly

According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts have stated that despite the overall recovery of the cryptocurrency market following the Iran conflict, Ethereum and altcoins continue to underperform Bitcoin. The analysts believe that unless there is a substantial improvement in network activity, DeFi, and real-world applications, this trend that began in 2023 is unlikely to change.The analysts pointed out that the spot Bitcoin ETF has recovered about two-thirds of the previously withdrawn funds, while the spot Ethereum ETF has only recovered about one-third. CME futures positions indicate that institutions are rebuilding their Bitcoin exposure more aggressively than Ethereum, with Bitcoin futures positions nearly fully restored, while Ethereum futures positions remain below previous levels.The analysts also questioned whether the upcoming Ethereum upgrade could effectively boost network activity. They noted that upgrades over the past three years have primarily reduced Layer 2 transaction costs, leading to lower Ethereum network fees, a weakened token burn mechanism, and accelerated net supply growth, which has undermined ETH's price support.Regarding altcoins, the analysts pointed out that poor liquidity, insufficient market depth, limited growth in DeFi activity, and repeated hacking incidents have eroded confidence and hindered the allocation of new capital.
20 hours ago
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