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hot_img Microsoft: OpenAI's revenue for fiscal year 2026 will reach 24.1 billion dollars, accounting for 70% of AI sales

According to Ed Zitron's citation of Microsoft's latest financial report and Bloomberg analysis, OpenAI contributed $24.1 billion in revenue to Microsoft for the fiscal year ending June 2026, accounting for more than 70% of Microsoft's AI business revenue for that fiscal year, and approximately 7.26% of Microsoft's total revenue of $331.8 billion for FY26. Bloomberg estimates OpenAI's contribution to be around 70%, based on Microsoft's previously disclosed 123% annual growth rate in AI business and an annualized AI revenue scale of about $34 billion.The report points out that Microsoft has accumulated approximately $261.3 billion in capital expenditures since early 2022, with analysts believing that a significant portion of this expenditure serves a single client, OpenAI. Ed Zitron commented that Microsoft "has invested in AI for nearly four years, and aside from a company that requires infinite resources to maintain its computing bill, there is almost nothing to show for it." Previously, in a report on August 4, Ed Zitron cited analysts estimating that OpenAI and Anthropic together account for more than 70% of the AI revenue of the three major cloud providers: Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. Microsoft also disclosed in its financial report that as of June 30, accounts receivable from OpenAI amounted to $6 billion.

Behind the collapse of the "AI Stock God" Leopold Fund: abandoning the sale of Anthropic equity and turning to discounted sales of public stocks

According to Wall St Engine, "AI stock god" Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund faced liquidity pressure during the market crash in July, with behind-the-scenes details revealed.The report states that after the market rapidly cooled in mid-July, the decline in stocks held by Situational Awareness triggered margin monitoring by banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, leading to margin calls.Insiders said that other hedge funds began shorting related stocks after learning about its positions, creating a cycle of "price drop → margin call → forced selling → further price decline."In late July, while Leopold was hosting a wedding in Carmel, he continued negotiations with his team to maintain fund operations. On the evening of July 29, he reached a preliminary agreement with a consortium led by Greenoaks and Sequoia Capital to sell approximately $3.5 billion in Anthropic equity.However, in the early hours of July 30, before the U.S. stock market opened, Leopold changed his decision, opting to retain the private equity portfolio and instead sell publicly traded stocks. Subsequently, Citadel and Millennium entered negotiations with the fund team, and Citadel ultimately acquired most of the fund's public stock investment portfolio at a discount of more than 10% below market value before Thursday's opening.This transaction helped Situational Awareness meet margin requirements and avoid formal default. After the deal was completed, related AI and semiconductor stocks rebounded on Thursday, benefiting Citadel.As of around July 31, Situational Awareness disclosed to investors that the fund had a net loss of about 67% in July, but was still up about 80% for the year. Leopold stated that he "takes full responsibility" for the incident, and the fund has removed bank leverage, planning to continue operations and invest in the public market while adjusting its portfolio management and risk control systems.

Analysis: Chinese AI companies such as Zhipu and MiniMax have high valuation multiples, with sales multiples exceeding those of their American counterparts by dozens of times

According to an analysis by Tommy, there is a significant gap in valuation and revenue conversion for Chinese open-source AI companies, with their price-to-sales ratio (P/S) far exceeding that of leading counterparts in the United States.Data shows that Zhipu, which developed the GLM 5.2 model, currently has a market value of approximately $137 billion, but its revenue for the fiscal year 2025 is about $107 million, resulting in a price-to-sales ratio as high as 1280 times; MiniMax has a market value of about $23 billion, with a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 290 times. In contrast, the valuations of leading AI laboratories in the United States are more solid, with OpenAI (valued at about $852 billion) and Anthropic (valued at about $965 billion) having price-to-sales ratios of only 34 times and 21 times, respectively.It is believed that due to overseas users' concerns about data privacy, they are unwilling to send data directly to China, resulting in the massive demand for Chinese AI companies not being converted into actual API revenue, leading to significant profit loss to overseas third-party inference service providers (such as OpenRouter, etc.). To support their current high valuations, Chinese AI companies urgently need to prove their data non-retention mechanisms and capture the market at low prices, or explore revenue-sharing and initial licensing collaborations with overseas inference platforms to expand their actual revenue scale.
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