retail

In July, U.S. retail sales recorded a month-on-month decrease of -0.6%, the largest decline since May of last year, and lower than the market expectation of +0.1%.

Tonight at 20:30, we will once again welcome the U.S. July retail sales data, known for its "terrifying data" reputation. This data will directly reflect the consumption willingness and purchasing power of American residents, serving as a key barometer for determining whether the economy is experiencing a soft landing or a stall.If the data is significantly stronger than expected, it may reinforce the narrative that "the economy still has resilience," boosting the dollar and dampening interest rate cut expectations; if it is significantly weaker than expected, it may exacerbate recession concerns and further boost precious metals and risk-averse sentiment.

According to the Nikkei News, individual investors in the Japanese stock market are accelerating their use of leverage to bet on AI trends. As of July, the amount of credit trading by individual investors in the Japanese stock market reached 123 trillion yen (approximately 1.09 trillion yuan), doubling since the beginning of the year and reaching the highest level since related statistics began in 2016.Data shows that in June, the scale of credit trading by Japanese individual investors hit a historical high, and in July it continued to maintain a high level. At the same time, the proportion of credit trading in the overall trading amount of individual investors rose to 83%, also setting a new record.AI concept stocks have become the main driving force behind the surge in credit trading, among which the credit buy balance of AI storage concept stock Kioxia reached 13.23 million shares as of August 7, making it one of the popular targets.Benefiting from the recent rise in the Japanese stock market, the overall performance of leveraged investors has been decent. The floating yield of credit trading investors briefly turned positive in June, although it fell back to a loss of 8.4% by the end of July, it is still better than the average loss level of the past 10 years (-10.2%).

On May 13, 2026, the American financial services company Charles Schwab began to gradually open spot trading for Bitcoin and Ethereum to retail customers, with a transaction fee rate of 75 basis points. The company disclosed that customer assets reached $13.1 trillion, with 39.8 million brokerage accounts, and Paxos is responsible for execution and sub-custody.During the earnings call in July, Charles Schwab stated that the progress of the related business is on track and launched a pilot for cryptocurrency asset transfers, while also taking a stake in Paxos. Initially, only Bitcoin and Ethereum are supported, with no support for deposits and withdrawals, and no SIPC protection, except for New York and Louisiana. Charles Schwab customers hold approximately $25 billion in crypto ETP.Morgan Stanley's E*Trade launched Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana trading through Zerohash on July 16, with a fee rate of 50 basis points; Fidelity's rate is 1%, and Coinbase's consumer trading implied fee rate is about 1.75%.

According to bits.media, the Central Bank of Russia has included Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT in the list of cryptocurrencies approved for trading in the Russian market. This list is included in the draft guidelines for public consultation published by the Central Bank. The Central Bank briefly attributes the list to the standards set forth in the new Russian law: high market capitalization, high average daily trading volume, and at least five years of pricing history on overseas platforms.Non-professional investors can only purchase these three cryptocurrencies. The guidelines also set an annual purchase limit for non-professional investors: a maximum investment of 300,000 rubles per year through a single intermediary. Professional investors face fewer restrictions and can purchase any cryptocurrency offered on exchanges and over-the-counter markets without any limits. However, all investors, regardless of their status, must undergo mandatory testing before trading. Previously, Russian President Putin signed the "Digital Currency and Digital Rights Law" on August 4, establishing a regulatory framework for the circulation of cryptocurrencies, with relevant rules taking effect on September 1.

The price of Bitcoin fell below $64,000 to a weekly low, while gold rose to $4,435 per ounce, a nine-week high.Retail investors flowed $50 million into gold ETFs in a single day.

The Kobeissi Letter posted on X that as volatility in the South Korean domestic market intensifies, South Korean retail investors have clearly shifted towards the U.S. stock market. In July, South Korean retail investors net purchased $4.6 billion in U.S. stocks, an increase of 627% from the previous month, marking the highest monthly level since January 2026, and significantly higher than the average monthly scale of $2.7 billion in 2025.Meanwhile, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index has fallen 33% from its June peak, with approximately 75% of the decline attributed to the two major chip stocks, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. As a result, the scale of South Korean retail investors buying U.S. stocks last month exceeded that of domestic stocks for the first time since February.

According to Daum, after South Korea's financial regulatory authorities raised the base margin for domestic and foreign single-stock leveraged products from 10 million won in securities to 30 million won in pure cash starting July 31, South Korean retail investors began to rapidly adjust their portfolios.According to data from the Korea Securities Depository, Tesla's 2x leveraged product TSLL recorded a net purchase of 14.58 million USD on August 3, but the purchase amount on the 4th plummeted from the previous day's 15.6 million USD to 1.56 million USD, while the selling amount rose to 8.68 million USD, resulting in a net sell of 7.11 million USD for the day. During the same period, Tesla's spot net purchases reached 42.3 million USD, more than five times the net purchase amount of TSLL.Micron Technology and SanDisk also showed similar divergence—Micron's 2x leveraged product flipped from a net purchase of 10.81 million USD on the 3rd to a net sell of 15.98 million USD on the 4th, while SanDisk's 2x leveraged product changed from a net purchase of 17.74 million USD to a net sell of 33.74 million USD. Meanwhile, the spot net inflows for the two companies were 148 million USD and 145 million USD, respectively, indicating a significant trend of funds shifting from leveraged tools to the underlying stocks.The tightened regulations require that the base margin must be paid in cash, with alternative securities such as stocks, ETFs, and bonds no longer counted, and existing investors must also meet the new standards when making additional purchases; selling is unrestricted, but the funds from sales must be settled after T+2 days before they can be counted as cash margin.The new rules were originally planned to be implemented in phases in August, but due to concerns that limiting it to Korean products would lead to a capital influx into overseas leveraged products like Tesla and Nvidia, creating a balloon effect, South Korean regulators moved the implementation date up to July 31 and simultaneously covered both domestic and foreign products.South Korean investors have reacted strongly, believing that extending measures aimed at local market volatility to overseas products constitutes excessive intervention, and that only South Korean investors must meet the 30 million won cash threshold, putting them at a disadvantage in global competition.

According to Jinshi reports, Apple is opening a lottery registration for U.S. retail employees who wish to participate in the offline launch event, which is expected to take place in the first half of September. Internal memos indicate that participating employees will assist in organizing queues, registering visitors, welcoming attendees, and supporting the security team.Historically, Apple's iPhone launch events are usually scheduled for the second Tuesday or Wednesday of the month.

According to Bloomberg, the KOSPI index in South Korea plummeted in July, causing significant losses for many retail investors. Despite the index rebounding a record 18% on Friday, retail investors still recorded a record net sell-off of KOSPI stocks that day; the index fell a cumulative 22% in July, marking the largest monthly decline since the global financial crisis, with the total market capitalization of the South Korean stock market around $3.9 trillion.Influenced by President Lee Jae-myung's push for stock market reforms and the listing of single-stock leveraged ETFs, South Korean retail investors bought approximately 78 trillion won ($54.2 billion) worth of KOSPI stocks from May to June. After the sharp market decline in July, many investors on social media pointed fingers at the government.A 30-something investor in Seoul stated that he entered the Korean stock market for the first time in May and has now decided "not to invest in the Korean stock market anymore"; another 40-year-old investor borrowed 50 million won against his home to trade stocks and criticized the government for introducing leveraged ETFs, turning the market into a "casino."During July, the KOSPI triggered trading halts due to circuit breakers four times, setting a monthly record. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix together accounted for over 50% of the KOSPI's weight, with their stock prices falling 21% and 35% respectively in July; however, since early 2025, Samsung Electronics has still risen over four times, and SK Hynix has increased nearly tenfold.Analysts say this is a typical result of crowded trading combined with leverage, and deleveraging is difficult to complete in a matter of days. In the coming months, technology and semiconductor stocks may still experience significant volatility, but this should not be seen as a complete collapse of the AI investment logic.The South Korean government suspended the listing of new single-stock leveraged ETFs in mid-July and promised to introduce more measures to stabilize the stock market and limit retail participation in high-risk products.However, the head of the Korean Shareholders Alliance stated that retail investors' anger and criticism towards the government have reached a peak, with many investors believing that the relevant measures have come too late.

According to Jinshi, since the end of June, margin loans for stock trading in South Korea have fallen by more than 10%. The assets under management of leveraged ETFs linked to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plummeted from over $11 billion on June 25 to $4.1 billion, mainly due to the decline in the prices of related stocks. In addition, the funds flowing into such funds over the past two weeks have also turned negative.Ivan Feinseth, Chief Investment Officer of Tigress Financial Partners, stated that large-scale deleveraging is usually a healthy and necessary market adjustment.

The Kobeissi Letter posted on platform X, stating that according to Goldman Sachs data, over 1.2 million leveraged retail trading accounts in South Korea triggered margin call notifications, with an estimated 320,000 to 360,000 accounts completely liquidated, accounting for about 3.4% of the adult population in South Korea.As the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) has fallen approximately 18% since July 13, it is expected that the number of accounts that have been completely forcibly liquidated has now exceeded 500,000.

Recently, market capital flows have favored defensive consumption and leading retail stocks, driving multiple consumer-related assets in the Gate platform's gStocks sector to rise. According to the latest data from Gate, KOG/USDT (Coca-Cola) has seen a 24-hour increase of 5.51%, currently priced at $88.73, with a 24-hour high of $90.23. Meanwhile, home retail and supermarket leaders have also risen, with HDG/USDT (Home Depot) currently at $344.23, up 2.43% in 24 hours; WMTG/USDT (Walmart) is currently at $114.39, up 1.69% in 24 hours. Overall, consumer and retail gStocks have shown active performance, becoming one of the main upward directions in today's sector.

According to Cointelegraph, the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has released a policy research report titled "Stablecoin Sprint," gathering opinions from industry participants such as banks, payment companies, and stablecoin issuers.The report points out that stablecoins have recently shown significant advantages in the field of cross-border payments, especially providing substantial assistance to emerging markets with limited access to US dollar channels; however, in the domestic retail payment scenario in the UK, the existing payment systems are already relatively fast and inexpensive, leading to a lack of motivation for consumers to switch, and the adoption speed is expected to lag behind. The findings of the above research have been incorporated into the final regulatory rules released by the FCA on June 30, which require that stablecoins issued in the UK must be fully backed by reserve assets and redeemable at face value.

Recently, market capital flows have favored defensive consumer and retail leaders, driving multiple consumer-related stocks in the Gate platform's gStocks sector to rise. According to the latest data from Gate, KOG/USDT (Coca-Cola) has increased by 5.51% in 24 hours, currently priced at $88.73, with a 24-hour high of $90.23. Meanwhile, home retail and supermarket leaders have also risen, with HDG/USDT (Home Depot) currently at $344.23, up 2.43% in 24 hours; and WMTG/USDT (Walmart) currently at $114.39, up 1.69% in 24 hours. Overall, consumer and retail gStocks have shown active performance, becoming one of the main upward directions in today's sector.

According to Jin Shi reports, on Wednesday, Korean retail investors faced forced liquidations of approximately 1.7 trillion won (about 1.2 billion USD) in positions.Jung In Yun, CEO of Fibonacci Asset Management, stated, "Today there are many cases of forced liquidations, and we need to wait until the selling sentiment of retail investors eases before taking action."

According to Jinshi reports, as the South Korean stock market continues to be sluggish, domestic investors in South Korea have once again turned to U.S. stocks, with net purchases exceeding 5 trillion won this month. According to data from the South Korean securities depository and settlement agency, from the 1st to the 27th of this month, the total net purchase amount of U.S. stocks by domestic investors reached 3.58999 billion dollars, approximately 5.5 times the net purchase amount for the entire month of June.Retail funds are mainly concentrated in the semiconductor and technology stock sectors, with the product that saw the highest net purchases being the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF, which tracked the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, with a net purchase amount reaching 1.75919 billion dollars.

CryptoQuant analysis indicates that Binance's Bitcoin inflow data has shown significant divergence. The total inflow from whales over the past 30 days is $3.9 billion, a decrease of 44.3% from the peak of about $7 billion on June 12; retail inflows are $7.8 billion, a decrease of only 22% from about $10 billion on June 5. Retail inflows are currently about twice that of whales, with a gap of $3.9 billion.The analysis points out that this divergence coincides with the eve of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting. Federal funds futures are currently pricing in about a 36% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, with maintaining the target range of 3.5-3.75% being the more likely scenario. From the perspective of Bitcoin, an unexpected rate hike could support the dollar and Treasury yields, increasing volatility in risk assets; if the rate hike is paused with dovish guidance, it may partially alleviate macro pressures. The Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday will be a key variable in testing whether this divergence continues or begins to converge.