rebound

According to BIT analysis, if Bitcoin could keep up with the Nasdaq's rise, the current price should be close to $140,000. The relative underperformance of Bitcoin may be related to the resurgence of inflation since the third quarter of 2025. Overall, Bitcoin had generally followed the fluctuations of the Nasdaq, but since October 2025, the divergence between the two has begun to widen significantly. At that time, the latest CPI reading had risen back to 3%, which is 100 basis points above the Federal Reserve's target, and the interest rate market also began to gradually retract some pricing for rate cuts in 2026. This is precisely the source of the pressure on Bitcoin; its upward logic relies on expectations of Federal Reserve easing, and once the market starts to retract pricing for rate cuts, performance often comes under pressure. Subsequently, this logic continued to influence Bitcoin's trend.Stocks, on the other hand, are completely different. As long as the market still views inflation as mild and temporary, a rise in inflation can actually be beneficial for stocks: even if sales do not increase significantly, it can boost nominal corporate income, reduce real debt burdens, and enhance the attractiveness of stocks as a hedge against purchasing power. The latest U.S. inflation data seems to have caught some market participants off guard, although the agency's model had previously indicated that price pressures might rise again. The current key question is whether this round of inflation expectation repricing will weaken the ongoing positive fundamentals for Bitcoin; and how investors should adjust their positions in this context.

The Gate Research Institute recently released the "April 2026 Cryptocurrency Market Review" report, which pointed out that the cryptocurrency market in April showed an overall upward trend, with total market capitalization significantly rising compared to March. The trading volume of BTC and ETH ETFs remained high and volatile. The report indicates that the activity levels of major public chain ecosystems continue to diverge. Solana's daily trading volume remained in the range of approximately 90 million to 110 million transactions, continuing to lead.In terms of hot sectors, the report noted that Pokemon TCG RWA has become one of the fastest-growing sub-sectors of on-chain RWA and entered a secondary explosion phase in April. Major trading platforms saw monthly trading volumes exceed 220 million USD, with weekly revenue nearing 6 million USD at one point, setting a new historical high. Meanwhile, Aave experienced the most severe liquidity shock in its history in April, with TVL outflows reaching hundreds of billions of dollars within days, and net outflows for the month exceeding 9 billion USD.Regarding financing and security incidents, the Web3 industry completed a total of 51 financing rounds in April, with a total amount of approximately 834 million USD, with funds further concentrating in leading finance and infrastructure sectors. Among them, Payward topped the monthly financing with 200 million USD. On the security front, Web3 security incidents in April resulted in losses of approximately 306 million USD, a month-on-month increase of about 858%, primarily driven by a single cross-chain infrastructure attack incident involving Kelp DAO, which amounted to about 293 million USD. The report believes that against the backdrop of a market recovery, on-chain activity and capital liquidity are improving simultaneously, but the security risks of cross-chain infrastructure and high-leverage protocols still warrant ongoing attention.

The Gate Research Institute recently released the report "April 2026 Cryptocurrency Market Review," indicating that the cryptocurrency market in April showed an overall upward trend, with total market capitalization significantly higher than in March, and BTC and ETH ETF trading volumes maintaining high volatility. The report shows that the activity levels of major public chain ecosystems continue to diverge. Solana's daily trading volume remains in the range of approximately 90 million to 110 million transactions, continuing to lead.In terms of hot sectors, the report points out that Pokemon TCG RWA has become one of the fastest-growing sub-sectors of on-chain RWA and entered a secondary explosion phase in April. Major trading platforms saw monthly trading volumes exceed 220 million USD, with weekly revenue nearing 6 million USD at one point, setting a new historical high. Meanwhile, Aave experienced the most severe liquidity shock in its history in April, with TVL outflows reaching hundreds of billions of dollars within a few days, and net outflows for the entire month exceeding 9 billion USD.Regarding financing and security incidents, the Web3 industry completed a total of 51 financing rounds in April, with a total amount of approximately 834 million USD, with funds further concentrating in leading finance and infrastructure sectors. Among them, Payward ranked first for the month with 200 million USD in financing.On the security front, Web3 security incidents in April resulted in losses of approximately 306 million USD, a month-on-month increase of about 858%, primarily driven by a cross-chain infrastructure attack incident involving Kelp DAO, which amounted to about 293 million USD. The report believes that against the backdrop of market recovery, on-chain activity and capital liquidity have both increased, but the security risks of cross-chain infrastructure and high-leverage protocols still warrant ongoing attention.

According to GMGN monitoring, the Meme coin aura on the Solana chain has rebounded after a pullback, with its market cap breaking through $30 million from a low of $20 million, a 24-hour increase of 32.6%, and a 24-hour trading volume of $2.3 million.The recent rise of aura is attributed to a meme image posted on May 9 by Binance's official Twitter with the caption "aura maxxxxing," which immediately ignited the market for the similarly named Meme coin on the Solana chain. ChainCatcher reminds users that Meme coin trading is highly volatile, largely relying on market sentiment and speculative hype, and has no actual value or use case, so investors should be aware of the risks.

According to Gate market data, at the opening of the US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.03%, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.32%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.71%. Star tech stocks generally declined, with Intel (INTC.O) down more than 4%, Qualcomm (QCOM.O) down nearly 4%, and ASML (ASML.O) and Micron Technology (MU.O) both down by 2.5%.

According to Jinshi, U.S. short-term interest rate futures slightly narrowed their earlier losses after the inflation data was released.

According to Jinshi reports, the U.S. April seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year recorded 3.8%, the highest since May 2023, exceeding market expectations of 3.7%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the predicted market Polymarket for the "Thunder vs. Lakers" event, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 1.5" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 80.6% an hour ago to the current 56.6% (a fluctuation of 24%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the Polymarket event "Pistons vs. Cavaliers," the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 1.5" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in win probability, dropping from 87.2% an hour ago to the current 54.4% (a fluctuation of 32.8%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the predicted market event "Pistons vs. Cavaliers" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Duncan Robinson: Rebounds O/U 0.5" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 53% an hour ago to the current 75.5% (a fluctuation of 22.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to The Block, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin has risen over 20% to a three-month high since early April, but research director Julio Moreno still views it as a "bear market rally."He pointed out that Bitcoin holders realized an average daily profit of 14,600 Bitcoins on May 4, the highest level since December 10, 2025. The spending output profit ratio for short-term holders has remained above 1 since mid-April, indicating that the market has entered a "clear profit-taking zone." Moreno noted that the 30-day rolling net profit has reached +20,000 Bitcoins, marking the first positive reading since December 22, 2025, signaling a structural turning point in bear market dynamics.However, this level is far below the typical range of 130,000 to 200,000 Bitcoins during a bull market confirmation period. The current unrealized profit margin is 18%, and historical experience suggests that high levels of unrealized profits increase the risk of a pullback. However, the demand for perpetual futures remains strong, spot demand is moderately contracting, and exchange inflows are sluggish, indicating that a pullback may take some time to materialize.

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant stated that with the recent price increase, profit-taking behavior in the Bitcoin market may further increase.Data shows that Bitcoin has risen over 20% since early April, but the firm still defines this market movement as a "bear market rally." The current profit metric for short-term holders remains above 1, indicating that the market has been in a continuous profit-taking phase since mid-April. Analysts believe that although selling pressure is rising, a price correction may still take time to manifest.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the predicted market event "Knicks vs. 76ers" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 2.5" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in win rate, rising from 57.5% an hour ago to the current 73% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Glassnode pointed out that after Bitcoin broke through resistance and entered the $82,000-$83,000 range, market volatility has significantly rebounded. Options data shows that the implied volatility (IV) has rebounded sharply from the low in October 2025, with 1-week IV rising by 6 points, indicating a recovery in short-term options demand. The 25D skew continues to compress towards neutrality, with bearish hedge demand weakening.The volatility risk premium (VRP) has turned positive, and the future volatility priced in options is now higher than the realized volatility in the spot market. Additionally, there is a short-term gamma short cluster of nearly $2 billion around the $82,000 mark, and traders' hedging behavior may amplify the current price volatility.In the past 24 hours, selling call options accounted for 81% of trading flow, indicating that some traders are starting to cash in on gains, with overall positions leaning towards consolidation rather than panic hedging.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the predicted market Polymarket for the "Knicks vs. 76ers" event, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 43.5% an hour ago to the current 26% (a fluctuation of 17.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, the LAB project-related address 0xf09...2Bd0b received 3.66 million LAB (14.07 million USD) from the multi-signature address 0x36F...0C291 nine hours ago, with the source address traced back to the LAB token deployment address.Subsequently, this address transferred 2.125 million tokens to two contract addresses, with the purpose currently unclear. After being questioned about a sharp decline by ZachXBT, LAB has nearly recovered from the drop, rebounding to 4.54 USD.

According to monitoring by Hyperinsight, during the continued pullback of BTC from its peak last night, the whale on Hyperliquid with address 0xc6c chose to go against the trend, going long on 109.7 BTC with 35x leverage, amounting to 8.8 million USD, at an average price of 82,000 USD, with a liquidation line at 80,650 USD.This morning, the downward trend of BTC continued, and the price briefly hovered near the liquidation line, with a price difference of less than 50 USD (about 0.06%). The whale may have given up on closing the position for the first time as most of the funds were already lost on paper. Later in the afternoon, BTC rebounded to around 81,680 USD, significantly recovering on paper, and the unrealized loss narrowed. However, the whale chose to remain inactive again. Ultimately, in the past 10 minutes, BTC faced a large-scale liquidation during a second drop, and then manually stopped out before the next round of liquidation, with the account balance dropping below 100,000 USD.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on the X platform, stating that the adjusted realized price range model calibrated to Bitcoin's current circulating supply shows that this round of Bitcoin falling to the key range of $59,000 marks the beginning of a true medium to long-term bottoming process. Bottoming is not a short-term process and will not be completed in one to two weeks; the baseline scenario is expected to take about six months.Axel Adler Jr emphasized that although Bitcoin has seen some recent increases, the core factor driving market stabilization is not emotional recovery or local rebounds, but rather the return of long-term real demand. This means that the bottom may only be truly established when the market begins to reprice future value and spot buying continues to recover.

Bitcoin has returned above $78,000, and overall market risk appetite has rebounded, with the S&P 500 index rising to a record high on Friday. Although Bitcoin has risen 15% in the past 30 days, the options market is pricing in only a 25% chance of Bitcoin rising above $84,000 by the end of May. The derivatives market remains skeptical about further increases, but institutional spot demand remains robust.The price of Bitcoin call options (buy) expiring on May 29 with a strike price of $84,000 is 0.0136 BTC, approximately $1,063. With 27 days until expiration, this data implies a 25% probability of Bitcoin rising 8% in May. Bitcoin put options (sell) have been trading at a premium for the past month, indicating an increased demand for downside price protection. The lack of demand for bullish leveraged positions can be partly explained by Bitcoin's 12% decline so far in 2026. Despite derivatives traders' lack of confidence in Bitcoin reaching $84,000, the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF has sent different signals, with a cumulative net inflow of $1.3 billion in March and another $2 billion in April, pushing total net assets above $10 billion. This metric is often used as a proxy for institutional investor demand.Additionally, in the past 30 days, several publicly listed companies have significantly increased their Bitcoin reserves, including 56,235 BTC from Strategy and 5,075 BTC from Metaplanet. These companies' increases have surpassed the equivalent of Bitcoin mining output for the next five months, significantly reducing potential selling pressure. The insufficient demand for bullish derivatives exposure does not negate the probability of BTC prices rising to $84,000 or higher by the end of May. As long as institutional buying remains strong, bullish momentum should continue.