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The Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator from CryptoQuant has recently turned green for the first time since 2023. On-chain analyst Julio Moreno stated that this usually indicates the market is switching from a bear market structure to a recovery phase. Moreno pointed out that historically, when this indicator exits the bear market zone and enters the "Early Bull" range, it often means that the worst adjustment phase has ended and the market structure begins to repair. However, several analysts emphasize that this indicator is more suitable for judging market phase transitions rather than precise trading signals. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, stated that the greatest significance of such indicators lies in determining "whether Bitcoin has stopped behaving like a bear market asset," and real confirmation still requires sustained demand, improved liquidity, and prices stabilizing at key levels. Currently, Bitcoin has not effectively broken through the $82,000 resistance level. Although it has rebounded about 35% from a low of around $60,000 in February this year, the market remains in a tug-of-war state. Moreno believes that to truly confirm a bull market signal, Bitcoin needs to digest some current "weakness" indicators while facing pressure from a neutral greed-fear index and a complex macro environment. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Bitcoin has completed a phase of bottoming around $60,000 this year. He stated that once it breaks through $90,000, the market may enter an "explosive phase," targeting the previous high of $126,000. Meanwhile, some analysts also remind that on-chain indicators like MVRV and NUPL are essentially more aligned with a "behavioral cycle framework" and should not be seen as absolute predictive tools.

Despite Bitcoin's pullback of about 2.5% since reaching a peak of $82,800, market analysts generally believe that its overall upward structure remains intact and has re-entered the "full bull market momentum" range. Swiss wealth management firm Swissblock pointed out that Bitcoin has re-entered the price expansion range, the Bull Market Support Band has turned into support, and the 21-week EMA has crossed above the 20-week SMA, with the trend structure turning bullish again. Currently, Bitcoin's price is consolidating around $80,000, where the "real market average" and short-term holding costs constitute key support, while the realized price around $85,000 forms an upper pressure zone.Whale and institutional-led spot buying are strengthening, while the proportion of derivative speculation is decreasing. Similar structures historically correspond to sustainable upward trends. If this indicator continues to maintain positive values, it may further drive Bitcoin to continue its upward cycle. In terms of liquidity, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has rebounded from historical lows to a key range, indicating that stablecoin funds are flowing back into the market. This signal has corresponded to phase bottom rebounds in mid-2021, 2022, and mid-2023. Meanwhile, the Binance stablecoin supply ratio oscillation indicator (SSR Oscillator) has risen to 2.8, reaching a 12-month high, showing a significant increase in stablecoin purchasing power.On-chain activity is also strengthening. Bitcoin's daily transaction volume has increased by 116%, reaching 831,400 transactions, a 20-month high; the number of active addresses has increased by 7.1% to 707,700, and total transaction fees have grown by 37% to $279,300, indicating a significant increase in network usage activity. In terms of funding structure, the 90-day spot Taker CVD has turned into a sustained positive value, indicating that spot buying is dominating the market. Glassnode data shows that this indicator has further risen to $62 million compared to a week ago, reflecting an increase in market proactive buying sentiment.In summary, the price structure, liquidity indicators, and on-chain demand all indicate that Bitcoin is currently still in a "strong trend expansion phase," and the bull market momentum has not yet ended.

According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV, the Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator has turned into an "early bull market" signal for the first time since March 2023. Historically, this signal has appeared after 2019 and early 2023, indicating that the worst adjustment phase has passed and the market structure is beginning to recover. However, there was one exception in March 2022 when the indicator also entered the early bull market zone, but the price was subsequently rejected, confirming a local top rather than a new bull market.Regarding the current signal for May 2026, the analyst believes that Bitcoin is no longer behaving as a deeply bearish asset, and the recovery of the 30-day moving average indicates that market momentum is improving. However, several other market indicators have shown signs of fatigue, making this signal less clear than a classic early cycle confirmation. The analyst tends to believe that this is more likely a local top rather than the beginning of a new bull market, unless the price strongly confirms this trend in the future.

CertiK and RootData announced a strategic partnership to jointly launch a dual benchmark brand program focused on security and transparency, aiming to make "security + transparency" a dual hard indicator of the trust system in the Web3 industry.It is reported that CertiK is a global leader in Web3 security services, and its Skynet platform conducts multidimensional security assessments of projects through a security scoring system; RootData is an industry-leading Web3 asset data platform that has innovatively constructed a transparency scoring model covering dimensions such as token economics, team background, and compliance audits.In this collaboration, CertiK will leverage RootData's standardized data interface to enrich the data dimensions and coverage of security ratings; RootData will rely on CertiK's professional security assessment capabilities to inject authoritative calibration basis into its transparency scoring. Both parties will jointly promote the "CertiK Skynet Score + RootData Transparency Score" dual assessment standard, providing a reliable reference benchmark that combines security and transparency for project parties, exchanges, investment institutions, and users.

Bitcoin fell below $76,000 after failing to break through $80,000, with uncertainties surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the macroeconomic situation unsettling the market.Meanwhile, technical indicators and on-chain data provide mixed signals regarding whether BTC can sustain this round of rebound. Bitcoin recorded a 30% recovery after hitting a low below $60,000 on February 6, but it stalled under selling pressure in the supply zone between $78,000 and $80,000. This range also coincides with the current 20-week exponential moving average (EMA), reinforcing the significance of this resistance level.Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, stated that the current pullback is "typical behavior" ahead of the FOMC meeting. He added, "I believe we are still in a phase of strong market conditions." On the support side, Bitcoin has tested the support level at $75,500, which also serves as the lower boundary of the 20-day EMA, 100-day EMA, and an upward channel.Glassnode's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data shows that direct resistance is around $78,000, where investors hold 335,650 BTC; the average purchase price of about 298,560 BTC is $75,500, forming a key support level.On the on-chain front, Glassnode data indicates that the Bitcoin market exhibits "a coexistence of bullish momentum and cautious sentiment." The spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) rose from $18.3 million to $54.8 million, with an increase of nearly 200% over the past week, reflecting strong bullish sentiment among market participants. However, spot trading volume decreased by 13.8% from $6.95 billion a week ago to $5.99 billion, "indicating a reduction in market activity." During the same period, the number of daily active addresses fell by 1.6%, showing a more subdued network participation.

Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin is currently showing bullish signals, with its Vector framework triggering a clear signal. Among them, a momentum indicator above 0.5 is considered bullish, while below -0.5 is considered bearish, and the current value is 1; meanwhile, the risk index has completely reset to 0.Glassnode states that from the blue shaded area in the chart, it can be seen that after this signal is triggered, the price has historically corresponded to significant upward trends and provided avoidance references during market downturns.

BIT tweeted that in the past two issues of the "Biton Target" report, we hinted that the bear market phase of Bitcoin may be nearing its end. Signals from multiple time dimensions are gradually forming resonance, supporting this judgment. When this judgment was made, Bitcoin was approaching the downward trend line formed since the bear market began in October 2025, just one step away from breaking upwards. Meanwhile, the weekly stochastic oscillator has fallen to a low not seen since January 2023, which was near the phase bottom after the end of the 2021/2022 bear market. Historically, this indicator reading often corresponds to market bottom areas.Our Bitcoin trend model has turned bullish. Trend signals do not always materialize, but considering that Bitcoin itself has strong trends and high volatility characteristics, after the previous two signals reversed quickly, the current round of movement has better conditions for continuation. Additionally, Bitcoin's price is gradually approaching the 21-week moving average, which has a critical boundary significance in our bull-bear judgment framework.$73,000 has always been an important watershed since March 2024 and is a key threshold for confirming whether this trend can reverse. Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $70,000. If it can effectively break through and stabilize above $73,000, the reversal signal will be further confirmed. Currently, various indicators are overall positive, but before the price enters this round's target range, the upward pace may still be disturbed by phase risk factors, so attention should be maintained.

According to The Block, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated on Wednesday that Bitcoin's recent rally is facing an increasing risk of profit-taking, with multiple on-chain indicators showing that selling pressure is strengthening. Currently, the price of Bitcoin has slightly retreated but is testing the on-chain "realized price" of $76,800 for traders. This level is seen as a significant bearish resistance, historically often limiting the rebound space, as holders close to breaking even are more inclined to sell for profit, thereby suppressing further increases.Moreno pointed out, "This price range precisely capped the price increase during the bear market rebound in January 2026 and reversed downward after reaching that level. If the current selling pressure continues to strengthen, a similar trend may occur again." He added that if the resistance level holds, approximately $67,600 below will become the main short-term support. The report also noted that the proportion of large trades has rapidly increased from less than 10% to over 40%, and historically, this level usually corresponds to strong short-term selling pressure. Profit-taking has not yet peaked. Currently, the daily realized profit is about $500 million, below the $1 billion threshold that historically marks significant sell-off peaks.Finally, Moreno stated that if Bitcoin remains above $76,000, or even approaches the realized price level of $76,800, the daily realized profit could accelerate to over $1 billion, thereby increasing selling pressure and raising the likelihood of a temporary top or correction in the market.

10x Research released a market analysis on platform X indicating that Bitcoin is brewing an important market breakthrough. Its internal trend model has already captured this turning signal in advance, and current market sentiment, positions, and capital flow data are validating the changes in market structure.Although the market is generally focused on the potential threat of quantum computing to the security of crypto assets, this risk is expected to manifest only between 2030 and 2035. Currently, the technical aspect has shifted to a constructive range, with multiple Bitcoin trading signals simultaneously presenting high-probability opportunities, indicating that short-term upward momentum is accumulating. However, 10x Research believes the more critical question is whether this market will evolve into a new bull market and challenge historical highs.

Analyst Alicharts updates multiple long-term bottom indicator signals for Bitcoin to reference Bitcoin's bottom points.Key support levels include around $63,111 shown by URPD, the trend line guarding for nearly 10 years at $56,000-$60,000, the structural bottom of CVDD at $47,960, and the extreme pain zone of MVRV at $43,647. Alicharts suggests that investors diversify funds into areas between $63,000 and $36,000, rather than precisely predicting a single bottom. Currently, the market is mostly in a wait-and-see or distribution phase, suitable for macro rebound layouts.

According to The Kobeissi Letter data, U.S. government job vacancies in February fell to 701,000, the second lowest since December 2020, a decrease of 524,000 from the peak in 2022. Federal government vacancies are down to 89,000, with the hiring rate dropping to 1.4%, matching the lows of 2016 to 2017. Private companies are also significantly laying off employees, with Oracle reportedly cutting as many as 30,000 jobs, Amazon reducing 16,000 positions, and Block laying off over 4,000 people.In terms of consumer confidence, only 27.3% believe that jobs are plentiful, far below the approximately 55% in 2022; the labor market disparity indicator has dropped to 5.8 percentage points, the lowest since the pandemic. Kobeissi points out that this indicator has historically been a reliable leading signal for rising unemployment, with the current level only appearing before and after economic recessions.

According to market news, after Bitcoin pulled back from $76,000, the Overall Liquidity indicator and the ALT Resilient Index showed a significant resonance in the 65K--66K range. Historical data shows that such resonance often corresponds to the formation of short-term bottoms, indicating conditions for a rebound.

According to an on-chain data report released by CryptoQuant analyst nino, the Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) has recently fallen below the key threshold of 1.LTH-SOPR specifically tracks the actual profit and loss status of long-term investors who have held their coins for more than 155 days. A value above 1 indicates that the overall selling is profitable, while a value below 1 means that long-term holders are selling at a loss. The current indicator falling below 1 suggests that an increasing number of seasoned holders are starting to feel pressured to sell at a loss, and the market may be approaching a "surrender" phase—where even the most patient long-term holders begin to react to price pressure, which is often seen as an important signal in the process of seeking the market bottom.

The Bank of Japan announced that starting this month, it will release monthly indicator data used to assess core CPI. The relevant data will be published under the name "Core CPI Reference Index" and will be announced at 14:00 on the second business day after the official CPI release in Japan.Investinglive analyst Justin Low stated that, in context, the Bank of Japan has faced considerable criticism due to the somewhat chaotic inflation data in Japan. The core CPI year-on-year rate for February has fallen below the critical 2% level, yet the Bank of Japan seems determined to continue implementing a tightening monetary policy. The Bank hopes to provide evidence that actual underlying inflationary pressures remain strong. It believes that measures such as energy subsidies implemented by the Japanese government have artificially suppressed CPI data.Therefore, the "Core CPI Reference Index" now released by the Bank of Japan will serve as a "denoised" interpretation of the inflation numbers. This is more about demonstrating to the public and the market that they are still on the right path regarding monetary policy. If there is any difference, it can also be interpreted as a slight resistance from the Bank of Japan to the government's intentions, as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi hopes the Bank of Japan will maintain the current interest rates.

The price of Bitcoin continues to be pressured below $72,000, and four on-chain data points indicate weakening market demand, putting short-term upward potential under pressure: 1. Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) is close to zero, indicating that large holders are reducing or stopping their accumulation of BTC. This trend is similar to early 2025 when the price of Bitcoin fell to $74,500. Small to medium-sized holding entities (less than 1,000 BTC) are also showing a "distribution or inactive" state.Santiment points out that Bitcoin whale activity is "historically low," with only 6,417 transactions exceeding $100,000 last week, and transactions over $1 million dropping to 1,485, the lowest level since October 2024. Analysts say that smart money is taking a cautious wait-and-see approach due to the uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act and the war outlook.CryptoQuant's network activity index has been declining since August 2025, reflecting a decrease in overall on-chain demand. The fundamental indicators from Bitcoin Vector also show weak network liquidity and growth, with market conditions described as "stably lacking support." Short-term increases rely more on capital flow, short covering, or external catalysts rather than natural growth.Bitcoin's hash rate has significantly decreased to 813 EH/s over the past few weeks, down 22% from 1.2 ZH/s on March 5. Rising energy costs and geopolitical conflicts have led to hash rate earnings of less than $34 per PH/s/day, with most miners facing losses. Token Metrics analysts warn that if the difficulty drops more than 5% within a week, the exit of miners may accelerate, potentially increasing spot selling pressure further.

A macro model combining the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the Chinese 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y × CN10Y) has recently shown an "extremely accurate" bullish crossover signal, which may provide guidance for the next round of Bitcoin's rise. Historical data indicates that this indicator has issued similar signals before bull markets in 2013, 2017, 2020-2021, and 2023, corresponding to Bitcoin price increases of approximately 8700%, 1900%, 600%, and over 350%, respectively.In addition, on-chain data also shows that whale addresses (wallets holding 1000-10000 BTC) have re-entered an accumulation phase during the recent price pullback, similar to behaviors observed near previous market bottoms. Analysis suggests that if Bitcoin stabilizes and rebounds near the 200-week moving average, the price may test $100,000 around August. However, if it fails to break through the key resistance level of $78,000, there remains a risk of forming a "bull trap."

Coinbase Institutional posted on social media that the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric can measure whether recent buyers are selling their assets at a profit or a loss. This helps us understand whether newcomers are panic selling, a dynamic that typically flushes out "weak hands" and cleanly resets spot positions.Since late February, the SOPR metrics for short-term holders of Bitcoin and Ethereum have both shown a rebound, indicating that recent spot demand has been strong enough to absorb the selling pressure, demonstrating that market positions are more resilient.

Analyst @alicharts recently posted that the death cross of the 50 and 200 simple moving averages on the Bitcoin 3-day K-line chart occurred on February 27, which historically often signals the final decline phase of a bear market.The article cites historical data since 2014, noting that Bitcoin has dropped about 50% after this indicator appeared in each bear market cycle.

According to analyst @alicharts, the current Ethereum MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) has dropped to 0.78. Historically, when the MVRV ratio falls below 0.8, ETH is usually close to a long-term bottom. However, the current market is still in a significant distribution phase.@alicharts indicates that if the selling pressure continues, potential support levels are: $1800, $1584, $1238, and $1089.

According to Cointelegraph, analyst Yashu Gola stated that the current technical indicators and on-chain data both point to short-term downside risks for Bitcoin.A typical "bear flag" pattern is forming on the Bitcoin daily chart. This structure began with a "flagpole" that dropped sharply to the $60,000 area, followed by price consolidation within a converging trend line, consistently pressured by key moving averages, with weak momentum.If the price clearly breaks below the lower boundary of the flag, it could further test the $56,000 level within two months, representing a decline of about 20% from the current level. Conversely, if it breaks above the upper boundary around $72,700 (coinciding with the 20-day moving average), it could invalidate this bearish structure.On-chain data platform CryptoQuant shows that the Bitcoin "whale inflow ratio" (7-day average) has surged to a historic high of 0.619, well above the 0.40 at the beginning of the month. This indicator tracks the total inflow of the top ten transactions, and its rise is typically interpreted as increased selling pressure from whales.Meanwhile, the Greed and Fear Index is signaling a potential "bottoming signal": the 21-day moving average has crossed below the zero line and is now turning upwards. Historically, this combination often appears alongside a "sustained bottom," and while a brief downturn cannot be ruled out, the possibility of a rebound is accumulating.