hedging

According to Jinshi, Paul Ciana, the head of technical research at Bank of America, stated that investors should hedge against further rebounds in the S&P 500 index and prepare for a potential "three-wave correction" in the coming months. Ciana pointed out that the S&P 500 index has risen nearly 17% since the March low, but after reaching a recent peak on June 2, the upward momentum has shown signs of fatigue and could drop to 6,850 points, about 7.6% lower than current levels. He emphasized that as the risk of a correction accumulates, the price trend is "overstretched," and momentum is deteriorating, suggesting a "defensive stance" from July to September.

The second round of the World Cup group stage schedule is halfway through, with some teams having already secured or are close to securing qualification, while several teams still need to determine their fate in the third round. In today's matches, Spain defeated Saudi Arabia 4-0, Belgium drew 0-0 with Iran, Uruguay drew 2-2 with Cape Verde, and New Zealand lost 1-3 to Egypt. As the group stage enters a critical phase, situations where the pre-match high probability directions do not materialize are still frequently occurring, further amplifying the risk of unilateral positions for prediction market users.Base's native leverage prediction market OmenX officially launched the World Cup Hedge to Earn airdrop event today, currently distributing hedge positions to all Polymarket users with positions. After users connect their Polymarket wallets, OmenX will identify their eligible positions; if there are relevant events on the platform, corresponding hedge positions will be issued; if there are no matching relevant events, recommended position airdrops will be provided to help users experience hedging and position management.OmenX stated that Hedge to Earn aims to help prediction market users transition from "unilateral prediction" to "position management." For high-volatility events like the World Cup, users can obtain hedging rewards through OmenX, adding a layer of risk buffer to their existing Polymarket positions.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin and gold fell simultaneously as the market bets on rising interest rates pressuring non-yielding assets. Bitcoin dropped about 7% this week, while gold fell below $4,200 per ounce.The rebound was mainly driven by short covering, with over $500 million in bearish bets liquidated in the past week, while spot demand has not yet returned significantly. Traders are focusing on Wednesday's U.S. inflation data and the policy stance of the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh. If inflation remains high, it could prompt interest rates to stay elevated, further pressuring risk assets. The rare simultaneous decline of Bitcoin and gold undermines their rationale as macro hedging tools.

According to CoinDesk, Deribit Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot stated that $60,000 is a key structural threshold for Bitcoin. Over the past year, a large amount of institutional funds (including ETF buyers, large holders, and short-term speculators) have bought Bitcoin in the $60,000 to $67,000 range. If the price continues to decline, unrealized losses will increase, and holding costs will rise, especially against the backdrop of rising AI stocks, which may prompt panic selling among investors. The open interest of put options with a strike price of $60,000 on Deribit has a notional value of over $1.2 billion.As Bitcoin approaches $60,000, market makers face Gamma risk from shorting put options and will be forced to sell spot or futures to balance their books, accelerating the decline. In addition, there is still excessive leveraged long positions in the system, and a drop below $60,000 could trigger more liquidations, creating a chain reaction.

Bitget announced the launch of the Delta Neutral Mode in its unified account. This feature will apply a differentiated automatic deleveraging (ADL) sorting mechanism to eligible hedging positions when the account meets preset Delta neutral conditions, thereby reducing the likelihood of reasonable hedging strategies being forcibly deleveraged in extreme market environments.The Delta Neutral Mode supports users in combining spot, full-margin leverage, and full-margin contract trading within the unified account framework, with the system synchronously assessing directional exposure at the account and asset level. This feature is suitable for funding rate arbitrage, basis trading, multi-market hedging strategies, and quantitative neutral strategies, among others.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a themed live broadcast event titled "NACHO vs TACO: New Market Logic Under the Hormuz Stalemate" today at 8 PM. At that time, crypto KOLs such as Sister Mao, OxPink, the Sincere Little Taoist, and Mo Ran will be invited to attend and discuss popular topics such as the changes in global risk asset pricing logic against the backdrop of the ongoing Hormuz Strait stalemate, the linkage effects between commodities and the crypto market, as well as the future trends of BTC and the evolution of market risk aversion sentiment.

According to GlobeNewswire, IREN announced plans to issue $2 billion of convertible senior notes due in 2033, and grant initial purchasers an additional option to purchase up to $300 million. The notes are unsecured senior debt, expected to mature in December 2033, with proceeds partially used for capped call hedging transactions and the remainder for general corporate purposes and working capital.At the same time, IREN also plans to simultaneously unwind part of the capped call hedging positions related to the convertible bonds maturing in 2029 and 2030. The company stated that hedging institutions may engage in derivative and spot trading around IREN stock, which could affect the stock price and the initial conversion price of the new notes.Previously, IREN has become one of the most aggressive companies in the U.S. stock market in expanding AI data center and Bitcoin mining infrastructure, and this large-scale financing may further enhance its capital expenditure and expansion capabilities.

Glassnode pointed out that after Bitcoin broke through resistance and entered the $82,000-$83,000 range, market volatility has significantly rebounded. Options data shows that the implied volatility (IV) has rebounded sharply from the low in October 2025, with 1-week IV rising by 6 points, indicating a recovery in short-term options demand. The 25D skew continues to compress towards neutrality, with bearish hedge demand weakening.The volatility risk premium (VRP) has turned positive, and the future volatility priced in options is now higher than the realized volatility in the spot market. Additionally, there is a short-term gamma short cluster of nearly $2 billion around the $82,000 mark, and traders' hedging behavior may amplify the current price volatility.In the past 24 hours, selling call options accounted for 81% of trading flow, indicating that some traders are starting to cash in on gains, with overall positions leaning towards consolidation rather than panic hedging.

According to Decrypt, as the price of Bitcoin rises to around $81,000, its perpetual contract 30-day average funding rate has been negative for 66 consecutive days, setting a record for the longest duration this decade. Data shows that in a negative funding rate environment, shorts need to pay fees to longs, with the current annualized cost around 12%. Nevertheless, Bitcoin's price increased by about 12% in April, while open interest (OI) grew by about 12%, indicating that the market has not experienced typical panic short-selling.Analysts point out that this phenomenon mainly stems from institutional hedging behavior rather than pure bearish sentiment, including hedge funds shorting futures during redemption cycles, basis trading strategies (going long on related stocks while shorting Bitcoin), and mining companies hedging their Bitcoin assets as they shift to AI computing business.Historical data indicates that buying Bitcoin during similar negative funding rate phases has a probability of achieving positive returns within a 90-day period ranging from 83% to 96%. The market generally believes that if the price effectively breaks through the key resistance level of around $82,000, it may trigger a short covering rally, pushing the price further up; conversely, it may retreat to oscillate in the range of $70,000 to $75,000.

According to The Block, despite the renewed tensions between the United States and Iran disrupting expectations in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to fluctuations in the oil, stock, and cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin stabilized around $75,200 on Monday.Analysts stated that the net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs last week was $996.4 million, marking the strongest weekly performance since mid-January, with institutional demand providing support for the market. However, the current market remains in a "fragile balance," with stablecoin balances continuing to grow, indicating that liquidity in the crypto market is more rotating internally rather than flowing out.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article that his fund Maelstrom is currently in a "No Trade Zone," and aside from a slight increase in long positions in Hyperliquid, trading operations have basically ceased in the first quarter.Hayes believes the current market faces two key variables: first, the large-scale proliferation of AI agents will destroy the flexible labor market in the West, leading to a wave of unemployment among knowledge workers and a deflationary financial collapse; second, the war against Iran led by the Trump administration has been ongoing for seven weeks, posing a serious threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to QCP Group, the US-Iran negotiations broke down over the weekend, and oil prices returned above $100, with the market overall shifting towards safe-haven assets. BTC faced resistance at $74,000, while ETH fell from $2,330 to $2,180. Trump subsequently threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iranian oil exports, and Iran retaliated with threats regarding the Strait of Mandeb, further widening the risk exposure.China is at the core of the situation due to its large imports of Iranian crude oil. If a blockade is implemented, the risk of US-China confrontation will significantly increase, and the market has not yet fully priced this in. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency market has shown strong resilience—implied volatility and risk reversal indicators have both fallen back to pre-conflict levels, indicating a decline in panic sentiment.BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $612.1 million in the past week, with institutional buying remaining active. The market's current focus has shifted from geopolitical headlines to execution details, as Trump announced that the blockade will begin at 10 AM Eastern Time, and after multiple delays, the credibility of the policy itself has become one of the trading variables.

According to official social media news, the decentralized contract trading platform SunX will hold a live broadcast today at 20:00 (UTC+8) on the theme "Crude Oil, Gold, BTC: Who is the True Safe-Haven Asset?" At that time, Mr. Ice Fire, Zhengrong Shuo, Bitqi, Crypto Monkey Uncle, Qiu Rong, and other crypto KOLs will attend to engage in an in-depth discussion on the asset allocation logic in the context of increasing global macro uncertainty, focusing on the traditional safe-haven properties of crude oil and gold, the evolution of Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative, and the differences and games among the three asset classes in terms of liquidity, volatility, and risk hedging dimensions.

According to BBX data, yesterday global listed companies showed a transition in their crypto treasury operations from "one-sided accumulation" to "asset securitization and optimization of debt structure," with the following core data:$1.1 billion debt buyback: MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: $MARA) confirmed yesterday the completion of cashing out 15,133 BTC, raising approximately $1.1 billion to repurchase discounted convertible senior notes. This move successfully reduced the company's debt by about 30% and captured a book premium of $88 million through "debt repayment with cryptocurrency."4,709 BTC covered calls: GameStop (NYSE: $GME) announced yesterday an agreement with Coinbase to pledge 4,709 BTC in its treasury as collateral, executing a covered call strategy. This marks the beginning of "retail concept stocks" utilizing their holdings to generate passive income.$5 million accumulation guideline: Genius Group (NYSE: $GNS) announced yesterday the purchase of an additional $5 million in Bitcoin. The company has established a "Bitcoin first" guideline, planning to continuously convert over 90% of its cash reserves into BTC.Spot ETF listed on the NYSE: Morgan Stanley (NYSE: $MS) officially announced yesterday that its spot Bitcoin ETF has been approved for listing on the NYSE. As a Wall Street giant, this move signifies that top investment banks have completed the transition from "channel merchants" to "asset managers."Volatility cooling report: Charles Schwab (NYSE: $SCHW) released the "2026 Bitcoin Maturity" report yesterday, indicating that BTC volatility has fallen to historical lows, gradually meeting the "compliance threshold" for traditional pension funds to enter treasury allocations.

Cathie Wood's investment firm ARK Invest stated that it will use data from the prediction market platform Kalshi to assist in investment decisions and for risk management and hedging strategies.ARK pointed out that it will integrate Kalshi data in three ways: first, to supplement fundamental and quantitative analysis by introducing continuously updated market expectations; second, to obtain real-time signals through indicators such as trading volume; third, for event-driven risk management, hedging key outcomes that affect the portfolio and macro and industry risks. Cathie Wood stated that introducing prediction markets into institutional investment processes is a natural extension of financial research innovation, and this type of data helps quantify uncertainty and provides more forward-looking references for investments in disruptive industries.

According to independent analyst Markus Thielen, Ethereum has accumulated a decline of about 63% in this cycle, reaching a low of $1837, and the current price is testing the technical resistance level at the upper edge of the downward channel.The recent price recovery has been primarily driven by options capital flow and the Gamma hedging mechanism, with no significant changes in the fundamentals. Although ETF demand has shown some signs of recovery, derivative positions remain the core factor affecting recent trends. Analysts point out that the financial asset attributes of Ethereum are becoming increasingly apparent, and its price movement has begun to decouple from traditional major asset classes. The traditional risk-on/risk-off framework has limited explanatory power, and the crypto market may be forming a more independent pricing logic, with the position structure and capital flow worthy of continuous tracking.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, a whale with a bet of $54.63 million on "digital gold BTC" and "real gold XAUt" cleared out its position. After liquidating BTC in mid-January, it sold 5809.8 XAUt (worth $29.81 million) today at a price of $5130 just 3 hours ago.Now that everything has been liquidated, he has lost $5.15 million on digital gold and made a profit of $5.18 million on real gold. Calculating it out, he neither lost nor gained: he spent $30 million to purchase 264.8 WBTC at a price of $113,262. Sold for $93,844, resulting in a loss of $5.15 million. He spent $24.63 million to purchase 5809.8 XAUt at a price of $4,239. Sold for $5,130, resulting in a profit of $5.18 million.

Bitcoin mining company DMG Blockchain Solutions released its operational performance report, disclosing that it mined 23 BTC last month. However, due to the sale of some of its Bitcoin holdings, its current holdings have decreased to 410 BTC, and the overall platform hash rate has increased to 1.78 EH/s. Additionally, the company stated that it has been approved to increase its total available power capacity to 75 megawatts and plans to explore power financial hedging contracts to mitigate the impact of power outages on Bitcoin mining and artificial intelligence data center operations.