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The venture capital firm a16z supports the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and opposes a series of crackdowns by various states on prediction markets. On Friday, a16z submitted an 18-page comment letter to the CFTC, stating that the actions taken by state regulators against prediction market platforms—including cease-and-desist orders and proposed bans—are creating "serious barriers to fair access" for users.In just the past month, the CFTC has filed a series of lawsuits against Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, New York, and Wisconsin, claiming that these states are attempting to regulate markets overseen by the federal government, which exceeds their jurisdiction. a16z argues that requiring trading platforms to block U.S. users based on their state of residence conflicts with the CFTC's rules on fair market access. The company wrote, "Being forced to deny fair access to users from states seeking to license or ban certain event contracts could severely compress available liquidity."CFTC Chairman Mike Selig asserts that the event contracts of prediction markets fall under swap contracts, placing them within the CFTC's "exclusive jurisdiction." State regulators and state attorneys general counter that platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket offer unlicensed gambling products. a16z also discussed the utility provided by what it calls prediction markets, stating that their pricing mechanism is a "unique form of price discovery" that helps "reveal the probabilities of uncertain events." The company further argues that blockchain-based prediction markets are more transparent than traditional platforms, claiming that "the auditability of on-chain transactions" makes it easier for participants and regulators to oversee.In April, the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi surpassed a cumulative trading volume of $15 billion.

According to Jinshi reports, ECB President Lagarde stated that the central bank discussed various options, including the possibility of raising interest rates.

Gate held the Institutional Circle event in Hong Kong, focusing on the theme "AI Reshaping Crypto Liquidity & Market Access," gathering several institutional representatives from the Asia-Pacific region to discuss the evolution of the crypto market structure and the path to liquidity reshaping. Gate's founder and CEO Dr. Han attended the event and interacted with institutional guests on-site.At the event, Gate's Global Institutional Head Addis Hu delivered the opening speech and shared insights on the platform's service capabilities and market changes in the context of deepening institutional participation. AWS Senior Regional Business Development Manager Ethan Hui shared industry insights from the perspectives of technical infrastructure and asset services.During the discussion session, attendees engaged in in-depth discussions on the evolution of liquidity, changes in market structure, and trends in multi-asset allocation against the backdrop of continuous institutional capital inflow. Overall, this event provided institutions with a reference for understanding current market structure changes and future allocation logic, further reflecting that the industry is moving towards a more mature and structured development stage.

Varys Capital's head of venture capital, Tom Dunleavy, posted on X that the financing environment in the cryptocurrency market has changed dramatically over the past six months. Previously, VCs had to constantly network, write content, appear on podcasts, participate in Spaces, promote their investment logic, and make countless calls every week to invest in good projects... But now, as long as there is money to spend, that's enough. Current projects are being "pushed in front of VCs," without VCs having to actively dig for them; as long as others know you have funds, projects will come knocking.Most VC firms are now in one of the following three states: they are out of money, they are shifting to later stages (Series A and beyond), or they are fundraising (but not smoothly). Fundraising that used to take 2-3 weeks now often drags on for 2-3 months. Projects with questionable business models or those that simply replicate the latest hot narratives can no longer secure new funding or follow-on investments (which is a good thing).Currently, there may be fewer than 20 firms that are still making pre-seed/seed investments. VCs can basically choose the projects they want to invest in at their leisure and have more time to conduct due diligence. The investment cycle in 2025 and 2026 is likely to become a historically significant "golden opportunity," but the premise is that VCs can hold on.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has risen nearly 7% since Sunday, but the upward momentum has slowed after reaching the $72,000 range, with institutional fund direction unclear. The market is focused on two major uncertainties: the U.S. March CPI data (expected to exceed 3% year-on-year, driven by energy prices) and the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations over the weekend.The options market shows that institutions are simultaneously favoring $80,000 call options on Deribit and BlackRock's IBIT-related call options while maintaining a high proportion of put options to hedge against downside risks. If the CPI exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, putting pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

According to Jinshi reports, Huatai Securities believes that the better-than-expected rebound in March's non-farm data shows the resilience of the U.S. labor market. However, under the conflict in the Middle East, the impact of high oil prices on inflation expectations is more critical for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.Recently, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has intensified, and the oil supply gap caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up oil prices and inflation expectations. Inflation is currently the core variable of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

According to The Block, Michael Selig, chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, stated that when assessing which prediction market contracts are susceptible to manipulation, the agency will "largely respect the opinions of various sports leagues."Previously, the National Football League (NFL) sent letters to prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, requesting them to stop offering contracts on single game outcomes, drafts, injuries, and other easily manipulated or predetermined contracts, believing that such contracts could incite manipulative behavior.On the legislative front, bipartisan lawmakers have proposed bills aimed at prohibiting federally regulated prediction markets from launching sports-related contracts, and several states have challenged the legality of such platforms through legal means. Meanwhile, Major League Baseball has chosen a collaborative approach, reaching an agreement with Polymarket and signing an information-sharing agreement.

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report supports that the current Bitcoin trend is under dual pressure from weakening demand and a deteriorating macro environment, with the market's future direction gradually being dominated by ETF fund flows.Currently, after failing to break through the range high, Bitcoin has fallen back to near the monthly opening level. The recent rise has been driven more by short liquidations rather than support from spot buying, reflecting insufficient upward momentum.At the same time, there has been a noticeable change in institutional funds. The continuous net outflow of Bitcoin ETFs indicates that the market is actively de-risking, and the capacity to absorb funds has significantly slowed down, further suppressing price performance.

According to Jin Shi reports, Perli, the manager of the New York Federal Reserve System's open market account, stated that the Federal Reserve has many options to consider for further reducing the balance sheet.

QCP Capital released a market analysis stating that BTC's current price remains around $74,000, oscillating within a recent range with insufficient upward momentum.Although the overall cryptocurrency market is under pressure, the decline is relatively controllable compared to the pullback of other macro-sensitive risk assets. On-chain data shows that there is still buying behavior at lower levels, but spot trading volume is low, and recent price movements are mainly influenced by macro factors.On the macro level, this week is the most important central bank policy week of the year. The Federal Reserve will announce the results of the March interest rate meeting on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will successively release their decisions on Thursday. Due to high oil prices, the market has significantly lowered interest rate cut expectations, and the interest rate environment's support for crypto assets is weakening.At the same time, geopolitical risks persist, and oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, with the market overall maintaining stagflation expectations. QCP Capital points out that BTC currently does not exhibit pure high-beta risk asset characteristics, nor has it formed a stable inflow of safe-haven funds. Before the policy path and geopolitical situation become clearer, the range-bound oscillation pattern may continue.

According to Gate's market data, U.S. stocks closed on Wednesday with the Dow initially down 0.6%, the S&P 500 down 0.08%, and the Nasdaq up 0.08%. Occidental Petroleum rose 4%, ConocoPhillips and Chevron rose over 2%, and Oracle rose 9%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 0.77%, Li Auto rose 3%, while iQIYI and Bilibili fell 4%.

The Hunan Financial Office's official account has issued a reminder to the public to be wary of Ponzi scheme scams. In the analysis of the virtual currency investment platform "Yuzhi Financial" case, it pointed out that Yuzhi Financial has completely "run away," with offline stores empty, and customer service and "team leaders" either missing or promoting new Ponzi schemes. As of now, police in various regions have opened channels for rights protection registration, guiding investors to orderly register their information, and the case is still under further investigation.The Hunan Provincial Financial Office reminds that such scams often use high-tech and difficult-to-understand concepts like AI, digital currency, and NFTs as a guise. There is no myth of "zero risk, high returns" in the financial market, and one should remain highly vigilant against claims of "earning 1% daily" and "high dividends."

Byreal announces the official launch of its perpetual contract product, Byreal Perps. This product provides liquidity support through deep integration with Hyperliquid, aiming to offer users a fast matching and stable on-chain trading experience. Its core highlights include:Comprehensive asset coverage: The first batch supports 11 types of assets, including mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC, with a focus on introducing RWA assets such as gold (GOLD), silver (SILVER), crude oil (CL), and U.S. stocks like NVDA and CRCL.Low-threshold interaction experience: Users can log in directly using their Bybit account, Google, or email.High flexibility trading: Supports up to 40x leverage, provides a 24/7 trading environment, and enables seamless fund transfers between Perps accounts and Solana accounts.

Kristin Smith, president of the Solana Policy Institute, recently shared her views on the legislative progress of the Clarity Act. She stated that although the bill faces resistance due to the withdrawal of support from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and controversies in the banking sector, its complexity determines the long-term nature of the legislative process. Current negotiations exhibit two new characteristics: first, senior officials from the White House are directly involved, with presidential aides like David Sacks pushing for dispute resolution; second, traditional financial institutions are participating in negotiations for the first time.If the Senate Banking Committee can complete its review of the bill by March or April, there is hope to advance the legislation before the July recess; otherwise, the next window will not open until the fall. Smith, who previously led the Blockchain Association and spearheaded the passage of the Genius Act, believes that despite facing opposition from figures like Elizabeth Warren, the support from key Democrats such as Chuck Schumer and the ongoing pressure from President Trump are changing the odds of the bill's passage. On Wednesday, after Trump urged the banking sector to make concessions in a post on Truth Social, expectations in the market for the passage of cryptocurrency legislation within the year have noticeably increased.

The Pakistani Parliament has officially passed the "Virtual Assets Bill 2026," establishing the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA), which is responsible for licensing and regulating virtual asset service providers within the country.The bill aims to protect investors, combat money laundering and terrorist financing, and promote fintech innovation, aligning Pakistan's regulatory standards with international norms. PVARA was previously a temporary body established by a presidential decree in July 2025, and this legislation marks its formal legalization.

The fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress held an economic-themed press conference on March 6 at 3 PM. The Governor of the Central Bank, Pan Gongsheng, stated at the press conference that this year various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions will be used flexibly and efficiently.

Gate CBO Kevin Lee recently published an article titled "War, War Never Changes... How Will the Macro Market Move?" regarding the recent situation in the Middle East. He pointed out that geopolitical conflicts themselves do not alter the fundamental operating logic of the market; what truly determines the medium-term direction of assets is the impact of the prolonged conflict on the inflation path and changes in central bank policy orientation.Kevin stated that within hours to days after the outbreak of conflict, crude oil typically experiences significant volatility first, as the market prices in the tail risk of supply disruptions; gold then activates, serving both as a safe haven and an inflation hedge; the stock market faces short-term pressure, with VIX rising rapidly and significant sector divergence.As the situation progresses from several days to two weeks, if energy supply is not continuously damaged, oil prices and risk premiums often retrace, and stocks and crypto assets rebound with the recovery of risk sentiment; however, if high oil prices persist for an extended period, inflation expectations will be systematically elevated, shifting the asset pricing logic from a trading perspective to a macro perspective.The article further emphasizes that what truly changes the trend is not the market reaction on the day of the conflict but the inflation data and policy expectations that gradually emerge weeks later. Over a longer cycle, the market will reprice around the evolution path of inflation, the credibility of monetary policy, and the economic growth outlook. Historical experience repeatedly proves that in high-uncertainty environments, emotional decision-making often comes at a high cost; understanding the transmission sequence and respecting cyclical patterns are key to navigating volatility.

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, 13F filing institutions have collectively reduced their holdings in Ethereum spot ETFs, with hedge funds concentrating their selling due to the collapse of basis trade returns; traditional/long-term funds are increasing their positions against the trend, with Harvard's endowment fund being the largest new buyer this season.