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Fidelity: The correlation between Bitcoin's market value and U.S. Treasury yields has risen to a historic high

Fidelity Digital Assets recently released an analysis stating that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has recently risen to its highest level since the birth of Bitcoin, while the scale of U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, with interest expenditures exceeding Medicare, becoming the second-largest expenditure item in the federal budget.Fidelity pointed out that the correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. 10-year real interest rate has been low for a long time in the past, but has gradually turned positive in recent years, with the correlation rising above 0.6 in 2026, reaching a historic high. Over the past two months, Bitcoin has risen nearly 30%, while the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has increased by more than 10% during the same period.Fidelity believes that as government debt rises, financing costs increase, and concerns over fiscal intervention intensify, Bitcoin's fixed supply limit of 21 million coins may enhance its appeal as a potential hedge against currency depreciation and a portfolio diversification tool. If the current trends in debt and interest rates continue, government interest expenditures may even become the largest expenditure item in the federal budget in the future.Data from the U.S. Treasury Department shows that the federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 has risen to $1.99 trillion, up from $1.78 trillion in fiscal year 2025, marking the highest level since the pandemic. Despite the Trump administration's commitment to cut spending, military expenditures, Social Security spending, and interest on national debt continue to rise, coupled with a decline in corporate tax revenue, further widening the fiscal deficit.

first_img Analyst Jukan: Storage and computing power will fluctuate in the same direction, local AI may meet the demand

Analyst Jukan published a discussion on the storage industry's cycle, believing that computing power and storage will tighten or loosen in sync, and that there will not be a situation where computing power is continuously in short supply while storage alone turns to surplus. He also stated that the logic of shorting storage while going long on hard drives does not hold, as hard drives are tied to the storage cycle; if this cycle declines, hard drives will struggle to remain secure on their own.Jukan noted that the market lacks a clear judgment on trends after 2027. Historically, prices often peak one to two quarters before supply increases, followed by an expansion in shipments and a contraction in profit pools. He believes that this cycle is different from those of personal computers, smartphones, and general-purpose servers, as the products used are not standardized, and the triggering factors are also different. Some investors who still view storage through the lens of past experiences of profits during upswings and losses during downswings dominate pricing, leading to a low valuation of storage. He stated that a sharp collapse similar to previous ones is unlikely to reoccur, but a gradual decline is possible; even if Samsung and SK Hynix's profit margins are halved from current levels, the price-to-earnings ratio may still be in the teens, about half of the valuation of hard drive companies.He also believes that when storage prices decline, other demands will absorb supply at various price levels, with local AI-driven personal AI demand expected to emerge. If the storage prices pushed up by hyperscale cloud providers cannot be controlled, local AI will struggle to spread. Referring to the transition from mainframes to personal computers and from cloud to smartphones, he anticipates that this AI cycle will shift from cutting-edge laboratories to local open-source AI, with the latter absorbing storage demand. He simultaneously stated that storage prices will not remain high for over ten years; prices will eventually decline, but new consumer demands driven by local AI and open-source initiatives may provide bottom support.
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