storage

According to a report by ZDNet Korea on September 28, Samsung Electronics is accelerating the construction of the first mass production line (Ph1) at the Pyeongtaek Fifth Campus (P5) and is discussing with major equipment manufacturers to move the target for Ph1 equipment installation from the originally planned third quarter of next year to the second quarter of next year. P5 is the next-generation semiconductor production base aimed to be operational by 2028, and the construction of the Ph1 cleanroom began in the third quarter of this year.Samsung Electronics had previously advanced the completion of the P5 Ph1 cleanroom, originally scheduled for early next year, by about six months, so the equipment installation is expected around the third quarter of next year. Industry insiders say that the start time for equipment installation is planned to be moved up from July to August next year to around May to June next year; others have indicated that Samsung has even proposed to deliver equipment in the first quarter of next year for temporary storage at other locations, showing a strong willingness to invest early.Discussions on the investment for the second phase of P5 (Ph2) are also progressing. Currently, Ph1 is more likely to be built as a DRAM and HBM production line, while Ph2 is more likely to be built as an advanced NAND production line, including the tenth generation (V10). Equipment industry insiders say that formal purchase orders have not yet been placed, but Samsung has discussed building Ph2 as a NAND production line with partners, and due to the long equipment delivery cycle, they are requesting to prepare relevant components in advance. Reports indicate that large global tech companies are increasing orders for high-performance DRAM and NAND for AI infrastructure, while storage companies like Samsung have limited production capacity. Samsung stated during the second quarter earnings call in July that unmet demand this year will extend into next year, and the supply shortage next year will be more severe than this year, with shortages expected to continue until 2028.

According to Gate market data, U.S. stocks opened with the Dow Jones up 0.02%, the S&P 500 index up 0.07%, and the Nasdaq up 0.1%. Tesla rose 2%, as the company plans to establish a production line for over 1,000 robots per week by the end of the year. SK Hynix rose 1.4%, Micron Technology rose 1.05%, and SanDisk rose 1.8%.

According to TechPowerUp, Chinese DRAM manufacturer Changxin Storage (CXMT) expects to reach a monthly production capacity of approximately 350,000 DRAM wafers by the end of 2026, while Micron estimates around 375,000 wafers during the same period. The cleanroom construction cycle for Changxin Storage is about 12 months, shorter than the industry norm of 21 to 24 months.Due to U.S. sanctions preventing access to EUV, Changxin Storage is using older DUV lithography and multi-patterning technology. The company has begun shipping 16 Gb DDR5 chips at a speed of 8000 MT/s, with a chip area of 67 mm² and a density of 0.239 Gb/mm², where the G4 unit is 20% smaller than the G3. The 24 Gb modules are being mass-produced at approximately 6000 MT/s, and LPDDR5X-10667 modules (12 Gb and 16 Gb) have also entered mass production. The Chinese government is encouraging Changxin Storage to transfer DRAM IP to domestic manufacturers such as JHICC, Swaysure, and Yangtze Memory Technologies (XMC).

According to a report by Seoul Economic Daily, Samsung Electronics plans to increase the production of the sixth-generation high bandwidth memory HBM4 and the seventh-generation HBM4E, among other HBM4 series, by at least more than double compared to this year. The company intends to outsource the cleaning volume of glass substrates required for thinning HBM DRAM from 20,000 pieces per month this year to 50,000 pieces per month next year, an increase of 2.5 times compared to this year. Last year, the monthly demand for these substrates was about 10,000 pieces, which has already doubled this year compared to last year.The HBM4 and HBM4E that Samsung Electronics is focusing on expanding production are primarily high-stacking products with 12 layers or more. The company began mass production and shipment of HBM4 using sixth-generation 10nm (1c) DRAM and 4nm process-based chips in February this year, and provided 12-layer samples of HBM4E to customers such as Nvidia in May. The industry expects that, based on monthly wafer input, Samsung Electronics' HBM production capacity will increase from about 180,000 pieces this year to about 250,000 pieces next year, an increase of nearly 40%; the shipment proportion of the HBM4 series may rise from about 40% this year to about 80% next year.

According to Reuters, citing informed sources, Changxin Storage (CXMT) is preparing to enter the NAND flash memory chip market, expanding beyond its core DRAM business and competing with Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Micron, and Yangtze Memory Technologies.Changxin Storage plans to establish a NAND flash research and production line at its new factory in Beijing and set up a research institute in Beijing that includes NAND development projects. The company has discussed related plans with clients, including a startup that intends to procure chips for AI systems and supercomputers. The timeline for the operation of the R&D line or large-scale commercial manufacturing remains unclear.The global storage shortage is driven by demand for AI servers and is expected to last at least until 2027. Manufacturers prioritize DRAM and HBM spending, limiting the increase in NAND capacity. Changxin Storage raised 57.92 billion yuan in its IPO in July. Yangtze Memory Technologies was placed on the entity list in 2022.

According to a report by Reuters, informed sources say that South Korea's SK Hynix is in talks with Intel for a deal to produce memory chips in the United States for the first time. One possible option is for SK Hynix to lease part of Intel's long-planned chip manufacturing facility in Ohio; another option is to establish a joint venture with Intel and major cloud service companies eager to secure memory chip supplies.The deal would alleviate pressure on Intel and be a significant victory for the Trump administration. However, sources say that potential opposition from the South Korean side could be a major obstacle, as these technologies are considered sensitive. One source stated that the negotiations are still exploratory, emphasizing that no decisions have been made yet. If an agreement is reached, it is still unclear what type of chips SK Hynix would produce in Ohio.Its product line includes DRAM for servers, PCs, and smartphones, as well as NAND flash memory for long-term storage, and it is also a leading supplier of high bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI processors.

Citigroup analysts pointed out that leading memory chip manufacturers are expected to benefit from the structural changes in the development of artificial intelligence. The agency anticipates that continuous learning will drive a significant increase in memory demand, leading to a supply shortage in the market that will continue until 2031. Continuous learning strengthens models by training on new tasks and knowledge, which will create a sustained demand for model updates and access to historical data, driving the storage usage of products such as HBM, server DDR5, and eSSD.Citigroup expects HBM bit demand to grow by 62% year-on-year to 75.2 billion gigabits in 2027, and by 69% year-on-year to 127 billion gigabits in 2028. Global DRAM demand is expected to grow by 30% and 35% year-on-year in 2027 and 2028, respectively, while supply is expected to grow by only 19% and 22% during the same period, resulting in supply-demand ratios of -8.7% and -9.7%. In terms of NAND, demand is expected to grow by 29% and 33% year-on-year in 2027 and 2028, respectively, exceeding supply growth of 21% and 25%, with supply-demand ratios of -6.1% and -5.5%.Citigroup's preferred storage targets include Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Micron, Sandisk, and Kioxia, corresponding to the logic of storage shortages brought about by continuous learning, demand for HBM and server DDR5, DRAM supply shortages, and tightening supply of high-density eSSD and NAND.

According to Gate market data, U.S. stocks opened with the Dow Jones down 0.2%, the S&P 500 down 0.1%, and the Nasdaq down 0.1%. Most storage concept stocks rose, with Micron Technology up 0.9% and SK Hynix up 2%. Star tech stocks had mixed results, with Nvidia up 0.8%, Intel up 1.6%, Microsoft down 0.8%, and Oracle down 0.5%.

Interface News has exclusively learned from the supply chain that Apple has accepted Samsung Electronics' quote for storage chips in the first quarter of 2027: DRAM is close to $2.0 per Gb, and NAND flash is close to $0.33 per Gb, an increase of 30%-40% compared to the quotes in the third quarter of this year.Interface News has reached out to Apple for confirmation regarding this news, but there has been no response at the time of publication.

During the weekend market closure of traditional markets, the perpetual contract types of stocks may have been priced in advance. According to data from RootData, based on the median price difference, memory/storage (-0.09%) and AI concept (-0.15%) both saw slight declines:iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is currently priced at $509.76, up 1.49% from the last trading day's after-hours reference price of $502.26;Nasdaq Triple Leveraged ETF (TQQQ) is currently priced at $67.68, up 0.79% from the last trading day's after-hours reference price of $67.15;Strategy (MSTR) is currently priced at $131.00, up 0.70% from the last trading day's after-hours reference price of $130.09;SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) is currently priced at $397.09, up 0.64% from the last trading day's after-hours reference price of $394.58;Coinbase (COIN) is currently priced at $176.93, up 0.57% from the last trading day's after-hours reference price of $175.93;Nebius (NBIS) is currently priced at $208.94, down 0.35% from the last trading day's after-hours reference price of $209.66;Walmart (WMT) is currently priced at $107.88, up 0.28% from the last trading day's after-hours reference price of $107.57;SpaceX (SPCX) is currently priced at $147.54, down 0.38% from the last trading day's after-hours reference price of $148.10;

TrendForce's latest research on the memory industry indicates that the NOR Flash market is experiencing the most significant supply-demand structural change in nearly a decade. AI-related products are absorbing a large amount of capacity, and suppliers find it difficult to significantly increase NOR Flash bit output despite the continuous growth in high-end application demand. Therefore, the supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist in the second half of 2026, with overall contract prices remaining high.Although suppliers in Taiwan and China have increased capital expenditures and expanded production, the new capacity cannot be immediately converted into market supply. New output must first go through process migration, yield ramp-up, product certification, and customer design integration, making it difficult to alleviate the supply shortage in the mid-to-high capacity segment in the short term. Winbond expects the strongest bit growth in 2026, driven by the full-scale production of 45nm NOR and the migration to 25nm and 20nm. GigaDevice is upgrading the process for products of 32Mb and above, with effective output limited in the first half of the year. MXIC will prioritize additional 12-inch capacity for NAND and eMMC, limiting the growth of NOR wafer input.In 2026, AI and aerospace communications will become the main sources of new demand. The NOR usage in AI servers is 3-5 times that of traditional servers, with high-density demand driven by edge AI, AI PCs, robotics, and low-orbit satellites. In the first half of 2026, the average cumulative contract price increased by 100-120%. In the second half, the average price of products of 256Mb and above may rise by another 90-110%, while prices for products of 128Mb and below are expected to increase by 10-20% in Q4 2026.

According to Nikkei Asia, Chinese chip manufacturer Changxin Storage (CXMT) has taken the lead in profit margins over global competitors, surpassing SK Hynix and Micron. The company has leveraged the tight supply of commodity-grade DRAM to gain an advantage in the second quarter.Changxin Storage's main products include DDR5 memory, which has seen price increases in recent months. Reports indicate that this situation has emerged in the storage chip industry dominated by suppliers from South Korea, the United States, and Japan.

SK Hynix stated on the 9th that the development of the next-generation memory 3D DRAM semiconductor can utilize foundry processes. The day before, at the 2026 SK Hynix Future Forum held at the Supex Center in the Icheon campus, Vice President Kim Kyung-hoon and Son Ho-young presented the main technical directions for 3D DRAM, including the use of logic foundry processes for DRAM peripheral circuits, maximizing data bus bandwidth, and ultra-short distance transmission.3D DRAM is the next-generation DRAM that vertically stacks the originally planar storage cells to improve integration. The two stated that achieving this technology requires addressing not only design and heat dissipation issues but also challenges in fine interconnections, bonding, and process integration in the packaging field. As the boundaries between front-end and back-end packaging, foundry, and memory technology converge, collaborative optimization beyond existing fields will become more important. Son Ho-young mentioned that 3D technology is changing the technological boundaries between wafer fabs and packaging, and it is necessary to establish an optimization and new collaboration system that transcends existing fields alongside innovations in advanced packaging technology.In a related presentation, Professor Shin Chang-hwan from Korea University stated that 3D DRAM is not only about the vertical stacking of chips but also a technology that breaks the boundaries between memory and logic. As device miniaturization approaches its limits and the time and power consumption associated with data movement between systems and memory increases, the shift to 3D technology is inevitable. He proposed a 3D integrated design framework that links materials, devices, packaging, and architecture through artificial intelligence. SK Hynix President Kwon Oh-joon, in his speech, remarked that the past memory market resembled a straight road where the competition was about who could run faster, but now it resembles a constantly changing curve, making it important to grasp the speed and direction of external environmental changes and adapt flexibly in addition to internal capabilities.

According to Bloomberg, the top executive of Kioxia Holdings denied the possibility of establishing closer cooperation with competitors and shareholder SK Hynix, stating that they will control the rapid rise in storage chip prices to avoid impacting long-term demand in the artificial intelligence sector.Currently, storage chip manufacturers are expanding production capacity to meet the surge in orders from artificial intelligence service providers, leading to a significant increase in related chip prices. Some investors believe that forming manufacturing partnerships may help reduce the risk of large-scale capital expenditures.

According to the Chosun Ilbo, China's largest DRAM manufacturer Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) has launched trial production of the fourth-generation high bandwidth memory HBM3, with initial yield stagnating at 25%, about one-third of the golden mass production yield of 80%. SK Hynix has been mass producing similar products since 2022, with a yield exceeding 90%.The front-end yield of Changxin Memory's HBM3 8-layer stacked products is about 30%, while the back-end yield is approximately 70%, resulting in final good products. The company supplies a small number of samples to Chinese companies such as Alibaba's Pingtouge and Cambricon, and continues to improve yields. Its G4 (17-nanometer) process ordinary DRAM has no major issues, but the DRAM chips used for HBM have larger areas and stricter electrical specifications.The industry attributes the reasons to the insufficient maturity of Through-Silicon Via (TSV) technology. Nomad Semi's analysis shows that Samsung's HBM2 has over 5,000 TSVs per chip, SK Hynix's HBM3 has over 8,000, while Changxin Memory has about 3,000. There is a gap of 4 to 5 years compared to Samsung and SK Hynix.

Future Asset Securities analyst Kim Young-gun stated that the expansion of Samsung Electronics' HBM shipments for AI applications is expected to offset the impact of the slowdown in growth of general-purpose memory chips next year. It is anticipated that Samsung Electronics' HBM shipment capacity and average selling price will soar by 57% and 49% respectively by 2027, expected to surpass the projected growth rates of 16% and 20% for general-purpose memory chips.Future Asset expects Samsung's earnings to be weighed down by the strengthening of the Korean won against the US dollar, but overall, it will remain robust. The agency has lowered its operating profit forecast for Samsung in 2026 by 5.7% to 370.057 trillion won and reduced it by 4.2% to 535.682 trillion won for 2027.

Researcher Schulz_Research stated that China's storage advancement is no longer a story of a single company, but rather a division of labor among three companies: CXMT is responsible for DRAM wafers, YMTC is responsible for NAND and has added DRAM in its latest factory, and the foundry controlled by YMTC, XMC, is responsible for stacking products from both. This division corresponds to the rules set by Beijing since late December last year, which state that new factory approvals must show that at least half of the equipment is domestically sourced, with exemptions only granted when there are no domestic options available. YMTC's Wuhan Phase III is the first advanced storage project to pass this rule and is set to begin production later this year.CXMT operates three 300mm DRAM factories, each producing about 100,000 wafers per month; models indicate it will reach 350,000 wafers by the end of 2026, and if all announced projects are completed, the total will exceed 600,000 wafers. YMTC's first two factories in Wuhan have a combined capacity of 200,000 wafers, with Phase III expected to reach 50,000 wafers by 2027 and full production of 100,000 wafers, along with plans to build two more factories of similar scale. XMC has two 12-inch factories, each with about 30,000 wafers, and an HBM packaging line producing about 3,000 wafers per month. China supplies about 10% of the global DRAM bits, with YMTC accounting for 14% of NAND bit shipments in the second quarter, and China consumes about 30% of global storage.CXMT has begun mass production of DDR5 and LPDDR5 and plans to start mass production of HBM3 this year, having already sent samples to domestic AI hardware developers. XMC has spent two years building HBM packaging based on hybrid bonding and YMTC's stacking IP, and is still advancing TSV technology.

Serenity posted a reminder that the fundamentals of storage shortages have not changed and may even become more acute. The market will shift from one bottleneck sector to another, but the companies themselves remain unchanged; what changes are the valuations and narratives. Serenity added several pieces of evidence suggesting that the storage supply-demand gap may be worse than the market expects: Nikkei reported that Japanese distributors claim the storage demand gap has reached 40% to 60%, and prices may rise by about 50% by the end of the year; SpaceX has not accounted for the approximately $1.3 trillion capital expenditure from ultra-large cloud providers, and total spending may exceed expectations; SanDisk's expected gross margin of 80% is expected to be maintained until 2030; and order visibility for companies like Samsung has extended to 2031.Serenity emphasized that storage stocks are highly volatile, with some of its positions showing unrealized gains of over 270%, making them easier to hold. However, the company's operational fundamentals and short-term stock prices often do not align. The same logic applies to other bottleneck areas such as optical modules, CW lasers, and substrates; after a rebound in stock prices, there is no need to assume that shortages have ended. Storage prices and supply-demand structures remain tight, and market sentiment and valuation narratives are rapidly rotating.

The Bank of Korea stated that thanks to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix actively expanding domestic production facilities, South Korea's leading advantage in memory chip capacity is expected to further expand.The Bank of Korea expects that new chip factories to be put into production by 2028 will increase South Korea's monthly wafer capacity by approximately 600,000 wafers.