signal

Glassnode published a market perspective stating that Bitcoin is currently caught between the median realized price (around $63,000) and the cost basis of short-term holders (around $68,700). Spot trading volume has hit its lowest level since 2019, and the market is in an extremely quiet compression state. Despite core inflation falling to 2.5% in July and the stock market reaching new highs, Bitcoin has shown almost no reaction and even weakened, indicating a clear lack of demand.On the other hand, selling pressure is easing: profit supply is approaching the past bear market bottom area, the seller exhaustion indicator has hit a cycle low, and the adjusted SOPR has been rejected near the breakeven line nine times. Meanwhile, buyers continue to be absent, with minimal net inflows into ETFs, and coins are still flowing into exchanges; however, derivatives leverage has already massively gone long, with open interest relative to trading volume being high, and the order book's buy side is also thinning. Glassnode believes that the key observation points are the upper level of $68,700 and the lower level of about $58,500: effectively standing above the former with accompanying volume and ETF inflows recovering may confirm improvement, while losing the latter could easily lead to accelerated declines under thin buy support and crowded longs. Glassnode remains cautious overall, believing this is the late-stage bear market compression phase, and real demand signals have yet to appear.

Renowned trader Doctor Profit posted that a historical indicator for Bitcoin is signaling that "the bottom has either formed or is very close." In 2015, 2019, and 2022, the bear market bottom formation phase began when the realized price of holders for 3 to 6 months fell below the realized price of holders for 1 to 2 years. He believes this indicates that newer buyers are capitulating and selling at a loss, with Bitcoin gradually transferring to longer-term holders.Currently, this crossover is appearing for the fourth time, while the BTC price is below the average cost of both categories of holders. However, historically, this signal does not immediately lead to a reversal; Bitcoin typically experiences several months of sideways movement to complete the bottoming process, so this phase can also be seen as a long-term accumulation range. He believes we are currently in the bottom formation and long-term accumulation phase of the bear market. Doctor Profit stated that over the past few weeks, he has been gradually buying BTC in batches within the range of $54,000 to $64,000, continuing to build his position incrementally with 5% of his portfolio each time.

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ stated that data shows the Ethereum Unspent Net Profit and Loss (NUPL) on the Binance platform has fallen back to around -0.35, entering a range that has historically corresponded to significant price bottoms multiple times.This indicator reflects the unrealized profit and loss status of a specific group of holdings, and the current negative value indicates that the overall Ethereum holdings are in a relatively deep unrealized loss.

With the easing of the situation in the Middle East, weakening oil prices, and strong corporate earnings, the U.S. stock market continues to strengthen. The S&P 500 index rose 5.8% in the first four trading days before August 4, and the options market simultaneously released the strongest bullish signals in recent years.Data shows that the average daily ratio of bullish to bearish options for the S&P 500 index has risen to 0.9, the highest level in at least four years; the skew indicator for short-term bullish options has also reached a two-year high, indicating that investors are paying higher premiums betting on a rapid market rise.Analysts believe that the current "fear of missing out" sentiment is heating up, with some institutional investors more worried about missing out on the upward trend rather than the risk of a downturn. However, there are also views that the extreme optimism in the options market may amplify short-term volatility, and caution is needed regarding the risk misjudgment driven by technical factors.

According to CoinDesk, the controversial BIP-110 soft fork proposal officially entered the mandatory signaling phase at around 3:35 AM Beijing time this Sunday (UTC 19:35) at Bitcoin block height 961,632, marking the start of the signaling window. This proposal aims to temporarily restrict non-financial data from being written to the Bitcoin blockchain, but the current miner support rate is extremely low, with the proportion of supporting miners far below the 55% activation threshold required by the proposal. The market is concerned that this fork chain may expand its influence in the future as more nodes join, forcing miners to compromise, or it may gradually lose vitality due to a lack of computing power and ecosystem support. Meanwhile, several key figures in the Bitcoin industry have publicly opposed this proposal, including Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor and Blockstream CEO Adam Back. Opponents believe that BIP-110 could undermine consensus in the Bitcoin network and bring unnecessary risks of division.It is reported that the BIP-110 signaling period will last until Bitcoin block height 965,664, expected to conclude in about four weeks. At that time, the community will face a critical decision on whether to activate the proposal.

Analyst Ali posted on platform X that the TD Sequential indicator has recently shown two buy signals on the Ethereum monthly chart, namely "Black 9" and "S13". According to the analysis, over the past four years, ETH monthly TD Sequential signals have often corresponded to trend reversals, including a 236% increase after the buy signal in September 2022 and a 258% increase after the buy signal in April 2025.If this round of signals is validated, it may drive Ethereum to start a new round of upward momentum, with a target around the $3000 level.

According to Bitcoin News monitoring, there are only 41 blocks left until BIP-110 starts to enforce signaling.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that Bitcoin spot ETFs recently recorded the strongest weekly inflow since April of this year, with a net inflow of approximately $1 billion, marking the third-best performance since last October's "Silent IPO" event. Several products, including BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) and Fidelity's Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), have seen inflows for multiple trading days following the Coldcard wallet incident.Eric Balchunas added that while a causal relationship cannot be fully confirmed, the strong correlation between fund flows and the timing of events is "hard to ignore." If it is ultimately proven that the Coldcard incident becomes the starting point for the next Bitcoin rally, it would be somewhat ironic—because attacks on Bitcoin cold storage wallets are typically viewed as one of the worst security incidents, yet market sentiment may shift as a result. Recent ETF fund inflows indicate that institutional investors' demand for Bitcoin allocation is recovering, and the market is reassessing the impact of previous security incidents.

Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos stated that for the Federal Reserve, the July employment report will be a difficult data set to interpret. New evidence that the labor market has not re-accelerated may weaken the urgency for a rate hike next month, but this still depends on better inflation data.The decline in the unemployment rate will continue to keep the market focused on inflation data. Whether price pressures are rising or falling will determine if more officials conclude that they cannot maintain their inflation target forecasts with interest rates unchanged. A moderate inflation report will strengthen the rationale for keeping rates unchanged (as two consecutive months of moderate data begin to show a trend rather than noise). Conversely, strong data would call the forecasts into question again and give officials opposing a rate hike the opportunity to seek a fourth vote in favor.

Cryptocurrency analyst Ai posted on the X platform that multiple technical indicators at the monthly level for Bitcoin are releasing bullish signals, suggesting that the current market may have formed a macro bottom. Data shows that the TD Sequential indicator triggered a buy signal on the Bitcoin monthly chart last month. This indicator previously successfully identified the bottom of the bear market in 2022 and is now showing a similar signal again. Additionally, Bitcoin's current price is close to the 50-month simple moving average (SMA). Historical data indicates that since 2014, this long-term moving average has repeatedly become an important support area for Bitcoin and corresponds with multiple market bottoms.Meanwhile, the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) has fallen back to around -71. The last time this indicator reached a similar level was in June of this year, when Bitcoin's price briefly dropped to $57,000. Historically, extreme low levels of CMO often coincide with market bottom areas. Analysts believe that Bitcoin may still oscillate in the range of $60,000 to $67,000 in the short term, but the TD Sequential buy signal, 50-month moving average support, and CMO oversold condition together indicate that a long-term cycle bottom may have formed. The market will focus on whether subsequent prices can break through the oscillation range to confirm a new upward trend.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin stated that Signal recently announced it is exploring allowing users to register accounts without a phone number. He welcomed this move, believing it helps reduce reliance on the highly oligopolistic system of phone numbers, lowers the identity security risks associated with SIM card swaps, and makes it more difficult for governments to pressure Signal to ban users based on nationality.Vitalik also pointed out that while this initiative is better for privacy protection than the current situation, it only achieves "confidentiality" and does not reach true anonymity, as metadata such as message sending time, frequency, and recipients could still be used for identity correlation. He believes that with the development of artificial intelligence technology, long-lasting anonymous accounts are becoming outdated, and the only defensible form of privacy is "message-by-message uncorrelatable," meaning that no one other than the sender and receiver knows the identities of the communicating parties. This direction is currently being explored and advanced by new communication tools and mixing network projects such as Session and SimpleX. Additionally, protection against spam and denial-of-service attacks will become the next key issues to address.

BIP-110 supporter Dathon Ohm stated that the mandatory signaling for BIP-110 is expected to begin in about 290 blocks, approximately 48 hours. At that time, miners will need to signal through the block to indicate they are prepared for BIP-110; otherwise, the relevant blocks may be deemed invalid and discarded. He also suggested that miners and users upgrade to Bitcoin Knots nodes, stating that continuing to run Bitcoin Core after the mandatory signaling starts will pose security risks.BIP-110 is a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal aimed at limiting the size and manner of arbitrary data embedded in Bitcoin transactions at the consensus level. The main goal is to reduce the burden of "garbage data" on node storage and bandwidth from Ordinals inscriptions, BRC-20 tokens, Runes, large OP_RETURN payloads, and certain Taproot constructs used for data storage.

According to Bitcoin.com, Bitcoin BIP-110 will enter the phase of enforcing nodes to reject non-signaling blocks after block 961,632. Monitoring pages show that out of the 1,674 blocks counted in the current cycle, only 41 blocks support BIP-110, with a miner signaling support rate of 2.45%.BIP-110, officially named Reduced Data Temporary Softfork, plans to tighten certain data rules in Bitcoin transactions within about a year, limiting the size of certain data elements used by Ordinals inscriptions and multiple token protocols. This proposal is mainly distributed through Bitcoin Knots and has not been adopted by Bitcoin Core. Major mining pools such as Foundry, Antpool, F2pool, and Viabtc have not issued support signals. If BIP-110 nodes are executed as planned, the network may experience two transaction histories, with most miners and Bitcoin Core users expected to continue using the existing rules.Australian Bitcoin exchange Hardblock stated that the activation of BIP-110 is expected around August 7 to 8, which may temporarily suspend buying, selling, deposits, and withdrawals. Lightning Network tools and analytics provider Amboss has indicated a risk of a fork in early August, and the Australian Bitcoin exchange Bitaroo plans to freeze deposits and withdrawals as the mandatory signaling approaches.

Michael Saylor posted on the X platform stating that BIP-110 signaling was voluntary before block 961,632. From block 961,632 to 963,647, its software will reject every block that does not signal.Any "100% signaling" displayed during this window reflects this rule, rather than voluntary support from miners or Bitcoin consensus.

According to CoinDesk, Bitfinex analysts released a report stating that derivative traders have largely been washed out during the Bitcoin sell-off at the end of June.Bitcoin fell below $58,000 on July 1, and since then, the average daily liquidation amount has remained well below this year's typical range of $400 million to $500 million, indicating that despite macro shocks, there is little forced selling pressure. The decline in the Bitcoin market is smaller than that of leveraged stock themes because the "fuel" for forced selling has been exhausted.Bitfinex analysts expect that investors will remain defensive ahead of next week's U.S. employment report (the next major macro catalyst after the Federal Reserve meeting).They believe that rather than worrying about a new round of forced liquidations, the more critical question is whether the inflow of spot Bitcoin ETF funds can return once the market has a clearer judgment on the Federal Reserve's path.The analysts wrote, "We believe that positions will remain defensive as long as the risk of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes persists. Whether institutional buyers are active or insensitive to prices is the signal that traders have yet to see."

Today, Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang analyzes the latest Fed interest rate decision and market trends. He pointed out that although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, the 3 dissenting votes supporting a rate hike indicate a strengthening of internal hawkish forces. Coupled with sticky inflation and geopolitical risks, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike in September have risen to 72%, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher and further suppressing U.S. stock valuations.Combining technical analysis and practical operations, Lewis Huang stated that as rate hike expectations ferment, technology stocks and overall market valuations face significant pressure, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices showing clear bearish signals; on the other hand, the U.S. dollar index is likely to remain strong under hawkish support, while oil shows resilience supported by geopolitical situations.He suggests that CFD traders should align with the macro theme of "tightening expectations" at this stage, closely monitor the upcoming Jackson Hole annual meeting guidance, and flexibly seize both long and short trading opportunities, such as shorting indices at high levels and going long on the dollar in forex.