signal

According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_, the current reading of the Bitcoin UTXO profit and loss ratio model has fallen into a historically low range, indicating that the market is undergoing a deeper internal cleanup.However, the analyst emphasizes that this does not mean the bottom has been confirmed— the 365-day moving average needs to decline further to prove that the market's long-term profit structure has been fully reset, rather than just a short-term oversold reaction. Although a brief rebound may occur due to a short squeeze, it should not be seen as a structural recovery signal if the profit and loss ratio fails to sustain its reconstruction.Overall, signs of internal cleanup in BTC are beginning to emerge, but historical patterns suggest that the market may still need to endure more pressure before fully emerging from this bear market.

According to CoinDesk, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will testify before Congress for the first time on July 14 at 10 AM (Eastern Time), and traders are closely watching for signals regarding stablecoins, bank custody, and interest rate policy.

Glassnode stated that the Altcoin Cycle Signal has re-entered the "Altcoin Season" range. Typically, Altcoin Season means that altcoins rise while Bitcoin remains strong, but this time the situation is different. After nearly two years of continuous selling, the selling pressure in the altcoin market is gradually diminishing, while Bitcoin has experienced a significant pullback. Currently, the return of this signal to the Altcoin Season range is primarily driven by Bitcoin's weakness, rather than a comprehensive strength in altcoins.

After reaching a new low of about $59,000 in 2026, Bitcoin has closed above $63,000 for three consecutive weeks, indicating that the technical structure remains relatively solid. This trend is similar to the bottoming pattern observed before the trend reversal in the previous bear market phase.Data shows that Bitcoin futures open interest has decreased by 19.5% from the June high, the funding rate has dropped from 0.1% at the beginning of June to 0.02%, and approximately $540 million has flowed out of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the past two weeks, a significant slowdown compared to the $5.5 billion outflow in the previous month. These figures suggest that the market is releasing excess selling pressure while still maintaining proximity to key support zones.From the weekly chart, Bitcoin's current movement is similar to that from late 2022 to early 2023. At that time, the weekly RSI entered oversold territory and rebounded, forming higher lows, while the price created lower lows, resulting in a bullish divergence and becoming a key turning point before the upward trend in 2023. The current market is focused on the $63,000 area, where Bitcoin has formed a positive RSI divergence near this level, and has closed above $63,000 multiple times on a weekly basis, keeping the price above the recent low of $59,000.In terms of on-chain data, analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that long-term holders have realized supply recently rising to 12.42 million BTC, indicating that supply continues to mature and flow to stronger holders. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin selling pressure indicator has remained inactive for 1,256 days, marking the longest period on record, suggesting that Bitcoin may be stabilizing near a potential cycle low.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin developers are discussing the removal of the explicit Replace-by-Fee (RBF) signal from the Bitcoin Core wallet. Developer rkrux stated that since full-RBF has become the standard strategy, the BIP 125 RBF signal has become redundant and may leave unnecessary wallet chain fingerprints.Community member Murch noted that stopping the sending of replaceability signals is not simply about removing "fingerprints," as each sender still has to choose a sequence number for each input; currently, about 75% of transactions have used specific sequence numbers, primarily MAX-2. rkrux indicated that the default input sequence number should adopt best practices recognized by a broader wallet community.

According to Jinshi reports, data shows that forex traders, including hedge funds, are buying options in large quantities, betting that the dollar will strengthen further after the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals this week. Leveraged funds began buying dollar call options on Wednesday, and this demand continued into Thursday as investors digested the anti-inflation remarks from the new Federal Reserve Chair, Waller. Tobias Jungmann, head of forex options at Bank of America, stated that the buying of dollar call options is heavily concentrated in G-10 currencies. James Swindell, a forex options trader at Barclays, also noted a significant increase in demand for dollar call options, particularly in the euro/dollar and pound/dollar pairs.

The Federal Reserve has released a hawkish signal, putting pressure on gold prices to decline. According to CoinGlass data, gold (XAUT) is currently priced at $4280.41, down 0.62% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, the total 24-hour trading volume of XAUT across the network reached $293 million, with the Gate platform performing particularly well, recording a 24-hour trading volume of $26.6557 million for its XAUT/USDT trading pair, and a 7-day trading volume exceeding $131 million, both ranking in the top two globally. In addition, the total 24-hour trading volume of XAUT contracts across the network reached $1.138 billion, with the Gate platform's position size around $11.9 million, ranking third among global exchanges.

According to Jinshi News, Christopher Hodge, Chief U.S. Economist at the French Foreign Trade Bank in North America, believes that the Federal Reserve's statement has been significantly streamlined, with clear hawkish signals. Interest rates remain unchanged, the tendency for easing has been removed, and there were no dissenting votes. The conclusion of the statement emphasizes the commitment to achieving price stability. Overall, this is a hawkish statement.

According to Jinshi reports, Deutsche Bank's Chief Economist in the U.S., Luzzetti, stated that clear signals indicate the need to raise interest rates to curb inflation.

Glassnode published an analysis on platform X indicating that its cumulative trend score metric shows that after Bitcoin's price dipped to the $60,000 range in early June, the overall behavior of on-chain addresses has clearly shifted towards accumulation.This metric measures the intensity of accumulation behavior on-chain by combining holding size and recent balance changes, with a value close to 1 representing widespread accumulation and a value close to 0 indicating ongoing distribution.

According to Mike McGlone, Chief Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg, Bitcoin has significantly led risk assets in previous upward cycles, and this leading relationship may be reversing in the current phase. In his latest comments, he stated that Bitcoin has previously "driven risk assets upward," but now "may also drive them downward," and believes that based on its comparison chart with the S&P 500 scaled up by 10 times, the overall β assets may enter a downward year in 2026.He emphasized that since 2009, the annual total return of the S&P 500 has only declined in 2018 and 2022, both of which coincided with Bitcoin's downward cycles and corresponded to the U.S. midterm election cycles. He believes the difference in the current market is that structural pressures are accumulating: inflation has re-emerged as a core political issue, while stock market volatility has remained low for an extended period, but risk indicators for commodities like gold and oil have continued to rise. This combination of "low volatility stocks + high-risk commodities" is historically rare.Additionally, McGlone stated that since 2026, both Bitcoin and gold have shown signs of "mean reversion," which may indicate that the risk asset cycle is entering a repricing phase. He pointed out that Bitcoin and gold have retraced about 50% from their 2025 peak (around $126,000), while the total return index for U.S. Treasuries may be forming a phase bottom from a low area not seen since 1983.Currently, the market still lacks key confirmation signals: specifically, the S&P 500 to GDP ratio has fallen from near its highest level since 1928. If this indicator begins to turn, it may signify that a broader risk asset cycle is entering a structural adjustment.

According to Jinshi reports, Bank of America Securities stated that investors should remain cautious about the U.S. stock market, as an increasing number of bear market signals indicate that the market is approaching its peak. The strategist team led by Savita Subramanian noted in a report on June 5 that about 70% of bear market signals have been triggered, with 17 out of 20 valuation metrics for the S&P 500 index showing "statistically significant overvaluation." In addition, the strategists believe that the performance of high price-to-earnings ratio stocks has been too strong, indicating "signs of excessive speculation."

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on the X platform that Bitcoin fell 12.5% in the past week, and the proportion of profitable supply has dropped to 55%, which is significantly low. Historically, bear markets have pushed this indicator below 50%, indicating that unrealized losses dominate the market. In February of this year, this indicator reached 53%, and at the current rate, the 50% threshold is about to be breached. Darkfost stated that while this is a bearish signal in the short term, such periods have historically been profit opportunities for long-term investors.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a live broadcast today at 20:00 (UTC+8) on the theme "ETF Continuous Outflow, Bitcoin Decoupling from US Stocks ------ Are Institutions Running or Waiting?" At that time, crypto KOLs such as Sasaki Hoshino, Sevth7, Kid, and Grace will engage in an in-depth discussion around recent continuous outflows of Bitcoin ETF funds, the decreasing correlation between BTC and US stocks, and changes in institutional capital allocation logic, jointly analyzing current market sentiment and capital flows, and exploring the future direction of the crypto market.

According to The Block, Standard Chartered Bank's Head of Digital Asset Research Geoffrey Kendrick stated that Strategy's decision to reduce its holdings by 32 bitcoins last week may mark the beginning of a new phase of "outperformance" for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin. Kendrick pointed out that although the scale of the reduction is "very small," against the backdrop of Bitcoin's decline on that day, ETH/BTC experienced a significant upward movement rarely seen in recent years. He expects ETH/BTC to rise to about 0.04 by the end of this year, currently around 0.028. Kendrick maintains his price targets of $4,000 for ETH by the end of the year and $40,000 by 2030, and stated that the Ethereum treasury can "sell coins with zero necessity" through approximately 3% staking yields, making it easier to achieve a higher net asset multiple (mNAV) and financing capability compared to the Bitcoin treasury.

Tom Lee stated that the recent market anxiety, including the slight sale of Bitcoin by Strategy, is typical bottoming behavior rather than a deep-seated crisis. Michael Saylor sold 32 Bitcoins at an average price of $77,135, raising approximately $2.5 million to pay preferred stock dividends. This sale accounted for only 0.004% of the company's over 843,700 Bitcoin holdings. Furthermore, regarding the outflow of $3.4 billion from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF for 11 consecutive days, Tom Lee believes that capital outflow is a classic lagging indicator of market cycle reset. Bitmine's macro strategy has not changed, and its plan to purchase 111,942 Ethereum for approximately $237 million is still underway, with its Ethereum holdings currently reaching nearly 5.4 million.

According to PRNewswire, institutional-grade digital asset options and derivatives trading infrastructure provider SignalPlus has completed a $50 million Series B1 financing round, with a post-investment valuation of $500 million. This round was led by HashKey Capital, with follow-on investments from BlockBooster and AppWorks, and Goldman Sachs served as the exclusive financial advisor.It is reported that SignalPlus is headquartered in Hong Kong and is dedicated to building institutional-grade derivatives trading infrastructure for the converging capital markets. Its platform provides professional options analysis, real-time risk management, and trading execution tools for hedge funds, market makers, proprietary trading teams, and asset management institutions, covering both digital assets and traditional financial markets.