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Galaxy CEO: Strategy stocks and preferred securities have become key indicators for measuring Bitcoin market risk

According to a report by crypto.news, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated that the core reason for Bitcoin's recent decline is the "collapse of confidence triggered by Strategy." The issue lies not only in the price of Bitcoin itself but also in the growing concerns in the market regarding Strategy's financing model.As the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin globally, Strategy's stock and preferred securities have become key indicators for traders to measure Bitcoin market risk. Previously, the company's Bitcoin flywheel effect had come under pressure, with stock trading prices dipping below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, indicating that its long-reliant "premium stock issuance to repurchase Bitcoin" model is being challenged. Novogratz bluntly stated that STRC trading is weak, which should have been maintained around $100. Currently, Strategy's annual dividend obligation has risen to about $1.2 billion, and a decline in cash reserves has reduced the dividend coverage period to only about 14 months.Bitcoin is also facing pressure on a macro level. Novogratz summarized the current market logic as "a strong dollar means a weak Bitcoin," with hawkish central bank signals and a strengthening dollar suppressing demand for risk assets. From a technical perspective, the $59,000 to $60,000 range for Bitcoin has become a critical defense line, and if it breaks down, the downward space could open up to $45,000.Novogratz also admitted that the current situation is complex, with a 50-50 probability of a rebound or a deep correction. Outflows from ETF funds, weak liquidity, and cautious positioning in the options market further confirm the fragile market sentiment. Now, the health of Strategy's balance sheet, the performance of STRC prices, and cash positions have evolved from being company-level issues to becoming confidence signals for the overall Bitcoin market.

Fidelity refutes the argument that halving weakens Bitcoin's security: miners' average daily income has increased from $26,300 to $40,200,000

Fidelity Digital Assets recently released a research report that positively addresses concerns about the long-term impact of Bitcoin halving on network security. The report's author, Fidelity research analyst Daniel Gray, pointed out that Bitcoin network security relies not only on block rewards but also on transaction fees, market incentives, and other economic forces that continuously motivate miners to maintain network security, making the cost of sustained attacks prohibitively high.On the data front, Gray noted that despite the ongoing reduction in block subsidies, the rise in Bitcoin prices has significantly offset this impact. The average daily income of miners has increased from about $26,300 during the first halving cycle to over $40,200 today. He wrote, "Despite the decrease in issuance, miner incentives and the resulting network security have historically strengthened alongside the rise in Bitcoin prices."Since the fourth halving in April 2024, the block subsidy for miners has decreased from 6.25 to 3.125 Bitcoins per block. However, the optimistic conclusions of the report starkly contrast with the current realities faced by publicly traded mining companies. Several industry analysts describe the current environment as one of the most challenging for mining on record, due to the simultaneous decline in block rewards, rising operational costs, and increased competition.In response, several mining companies have begun to transition to the AI and high-performance computing sectors, leveraging existing power infrastructure to meet AI computing demands. VanEck estimates that publicly listed mining companies may need to raise up to $50 billion in additional funds to fully transition to AI infrastructure, but the requirements for AI data centers regarding facility standards, cooling, power redundancy, and networking are far higher than those of traditional Bitcoin mining operations, making the transition challenges significant.

Ripple CEO: Still optimistic about Bitcoin, but the strategy of preferred stock financing has harmed the crypto market

According to CoinDesk, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated in an interview with CNBC that he remains optimistic about Bitcoin but believes that Strategy's model of financing Bitcoin purchases through preferred stock has harmed the crypto market.Garlinghouse said, "Financial engineering will not drive long-term value." He believes that the long-term value of any digital asset comes from its utility and stated, "Michael Saylor's team is not focused on the right things, which harms the overall market."The focus of Garlinghouse's criticism is the financing mechanism used by Strategy to accumulate Bitcoin. For about the past year, Strategy has raised funds through the issuance of preferred stock to continue purchasing Bitcoin. Its STRC stock has an annual dividend yield of 11.5%, designed to trade close to $100.Garlinghouse pointed out that STRC is currently about 25% below that level, which is a "harsh denial" of the strategy. STRC hit an all-time low on Thursday, at one point trading about 26% below par value. Meanwhile, Strategy's common stock fell to its lowest level since February 2024, closing around $82 on Friday; Bitcoin dropped below $59,000.This week, Strategy's financing model is facing more pressure. CryptoQuant stated that Strategy should pause Bitcoin purchases and rebuild cash reserves. The coverage period for STRC dividend payments has shrunk from over 7 years to about 14 months. When STRC falls below $100, the mechanism of issuing stock and purchasing Bitcoin will stall, which is also the reason for the company to pause this mechanism.Benchmark-StoneX analyst Mark Palmer believes that Strategy's financing engine has simply become "less efficient," rather than having failed, and opposes comparing STRC to assets that have completely collapsed.

Benchmark: The SEC's market structure reform may become the most critical variable for cryptocurrency regulation this year, benefiting tokenized stocks and AMM trading

According to The Block, investment bank Benchmark pointed out in its latest research report that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed to repeal Rule 611 and Rule 610(e) of Regulation NMS, which could become the "most decisive regulatory change" affecting the market structure of cryptocurrencies and tokenized assets in 2026.The proposal was announced on June 11 and aims to eliminate trading protection and quote constraint rules that have been in place for nearly 20 years in the U.S. stock market. The SEC stated that this move is intended to reduce trading costs and provide greater space for market competition and technological innovation.Benchmark's analysis believes that the current Rule 611 (order protection rule) requires trades to adhere to the National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO), while Rule 610(e) restricts "locked/crossed quotes." These mechanisms are effective in traditional matching systems but create structural constraints for automated market maker (AMM) models in decentralized finance (DeFi).The report pointed out that if the relevant rules are repealed, it will significantly lower the compliance barriers for tokenized stocks and on-chain trading systems, making AMM-based trading models easier to access the U.S. capital market system.In terms of potential beneficiaries, Benchmark specifically mentioned Securitize, believing that it will benefit most directly as a provider of tokenized securities infrastructure, while Coinbase and Galaxy Digital will also benefit from the expansion of trading, market-making, and custody infrastructure. However, the report also emphasized that the rule adjustments do not address all core issues, such as the exchange registration system, custody and clearing framework, and the legal positioning of DeFi-native trading still needs further clarification.The industry generally expects that the subsequent "innovation exemption mechanism" will become a key supporting policy. The SEC has currently opened a 60-day public comment period on the proposal, and the market anticipates that the final vote may take place in early 2027.

Analysis: Anthropic refuses to fix the Fable jailbreak vulnerability, leading the U.S. government to implement export controls

David Sacks, the head of AI and crypto affairs at the White House, stated that although the commercial version of the Mythos series model Fable released by Anthropic this week includes safety barriers, once those barriers are bypassed, users will be able to access Mythos's advanced cyber attack capabilities. Sacks pointed out that Anthropic had previously described Mythos as a "cyber weapon" that requires regulation, so fixing the related vulnerabilities should have been its responsibility.Sacks mentioned that a partner trusted by both Anthropic and the U.S. government discovered a jailbreak method to bypass the safety barriers while testing Fable. The U.S. government subsequently requested Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei to fix the vulnerabilities or take the model offline, but this request was refused. Anthropic stated in a declaration that the vulnerability is "not serious," a claim that contradicts the judgment of the U.S. government and relevant partners.Sacks stated that Anthropic has always emphasized that safety should be prioritized, but this time it prioritized maintaining consumer-grade model services. In response, the U.S. government reluctantly imposed export control measures on Anthropic and hopes that Anthropic will resolve the safety issues as soon as possible to lift the related restrictions and restore the full release of Fable.Sacks also denied that this action is related to previous disputes between the U.S. Department of Defense and Anthropic, stating that the government recognizes Anthropic's technological capabilities and believes that the current issues can be resolved relatively easily, with the initiative currently in Anthropic's hands.
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