rebound

Garrett Jin released this week's market report, characterizing the rebound in the South Korean market as a wide-ranging fluctuation rather than a new trend. SK Hynix rebounded continuously after retesting the 1.42 million won area, closing up 5.9% at 1,593,000 won. The KOSPI has risen 20% from the July low, entering a technical bull market, but foreign capital has not shifted to long-term holdings, and the drag from leveraged ETFs remains. Garrett Jin set the first profit-taking level at $1,150 (approximately 1.63 million won), with the next target at $1,300 (1.85 million won).Garrett Jin also noted that gold recorded its strongest weekly gain since January this week at +7.8%, priced at $4,388. The driving factors were a decrease of 23,000 in July non-farm payrolls and a moderate CPI that dampened September rate hike expectations. However, it is currently overbought in the short term, and a pullback could present an opportunity for incremental accumulation. Bitcoin has shown no response to the same macro-positive factors, remaining trapped between the support at $62,500 and resistance at $65,000-$70,000, with the bottom structure since $57,700 gradually being built. Garrett Jin will wait for the next buying opportunity after a pullback.Regarding SpaceX, Garrett Jin believes the recent performance is a classic case of "bad news fully priced in + short squeeze," with the unlocking itself becoming a washout rather than the starting point of a decline. However, the unlocking window has not yet ended, with an additional 319 million shares to be unlocked, approximately 700 million shares each in September and October. The current range up to $160 is a profit-taking zone rather than a high-entry zone.

Despite the rare coordination between the United States and Japan in promoting the strengthening of the yen, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Sanae's fundamental disagreements regarding the Bank of Japan may undermine their efforts. Yellen believes that tightening monetary policy is crucial to addressing the yen's weakness, while Kishi is cautious about raising interest rates, fearing it may impact economic recovery. The Bank of Japan's benchmark interest rate remains at 1%.

According to Binance spot data, the market has experienced significant fluctuations. EPIC has dropped by 22.56% in 24 hours, while DODO has increased by 7.79%, showing a rebound after hitting a low.At the same time, OSMO, RE, and ENSO have all shown a "high and then low" state, with declines of 6.75%, 5.51%, and 5.23% respectively. In addition, ASTSB and LSK have reached new highs today, with increases of 6.53% and 9.41% respectively.

Wintermute released a market update indicating that the U.S. non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000 in July, significantly weaker than market expectations, leading to a drop in September rate hike expectations from 55% to 40%, and driving a broad rebound in risk assets.Gold led the gains, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, Bitcoin, and altcoins generally rising, while Brent crude oil fell by 6.85%.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that since May, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has lost nearly $15 billion, decreasing from about $280 billion to $266 billion.From October last year to May this year, the market capitalization remained stagnant, indicating that there has been no liquidity inflow or insufficient liquidity. Now, even though Bitcoin's price has stabilized, demand has not recovered, and this weakness hinders the rebound of Bitcoin's price. In contrast, the decline in the market capitalization of stablecoins indicates that liquidity in the crypto market is actually draining away.

The founder of the Liebit Mining Pool (B.TOP), Jiang Zhuoer, stated that stablecoins in the crypto market are still continuously flowing out. In the past month, the total market value of stablecoins has decreased, with USDT dropping from $184.2 billion to $183.1 billion, and USDC falling from $73.28 billion to $72.15 billion, a total reduction of $2.23 billion.Currently, this funding situation shows no signs of a bull market starting. Bitcoin may rebound to the range of $68,000 to $70,000 at most, followed by a final drop after squeezing out the shorts.

"1011 Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin released a weekly analysis stating that he previously suggested gradually positioning in storage chips and buying on dips, but the market did not experience the expected pullback. He has sold half of the previously rebounded positions during the surge, not because the investment logic has changed, but because he noticed the funding structure driving the rise, stating, "This is more like a short squeeze rather than a final confirmation of the market fundamentals." Rapid capital replenishment of short positions can create short-term increases in stocks like SK Hynix, but cannot solely support a sustained trend. The risks of Korean leveraged ETFs have not been fully released, but the decline in asset scale mainly comes from net value shrinkage rather than investor exit. Currently, the cumulative net subscription of related financial products remains at historical highs and has not turned negative.Garrett Jin emphasized that the decline in the scale of Korean leveraged ETFs does not indicate a bearish outlook on storage demand. SK Hynix's 2026 capacity is already sold out, and Micron's orders are covered until 2028, with strong demand expected to continue until the second half of 2027. However, the storage industry is essentially a cyclical industry, and stock prices have already risen by hundreds of percentage points in advance. Cyclical stocks are usually difficult to sustain long-term growth through valuation expansion. The current market is entering a new phase of the AI capital expenditure cycle, shifting from "rewarding investment" to "evaluating investment returns." Regarding Bitcoin, Garrett Jin stated that it continues to meet the bottoming conditions since the low in July and maintains the position view established around $60,000.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that if the Clarity Act does not pass this week, the market may experience a brief fluctuation, but it will be prepared for a rebound in the fall.

According to GMGN data, the market capitalization of Robinhood Meme coin CASHCAT briefly rebounded to over 130 million USD, currently reported at approximately 114 million USD, with a daily increase of over 48%.Market Reminder: The price of Meme coins is highly volatile, and there may be rapid increases or corrections in a short period. Please pay attention to liquidity and position risks.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a Hyperliquid whale has recovered from a floating loss of approximately 4.77 million dollars, with a historical cumulative profit reaching 6.2 million dollars.Recently, it has closed long positions, with profits of about 1.33 million dollars from MU trades and about 32.7 thousand dollars from AMD trades. Current holdings include: 67,150 shares of Oracle long positions, with a holding size of approximately 9.74 million dollars and a leverage ratio of 2 times; 3,200 shares of Micron Technology long positions, with a holding size of approximately 2.94 million dollars and a leverage ratio of 3 times; 900 shares of TSMC long positions, with a holding size of approximately 378.6 thousand dollars and a leverage ratio of 2 times.

According to Jinshi reports, strong earnings have boosted investors' confidence in the prospects of artificial intelligence, driving the Nasdaq 100 index to rise 9.3% in just four days, marking the strongest rebound since April 2025, with a market value surge of $3.5 trillion.The rebound in the technology sector is broad-based, with increases seen in semiconductor companies, software firms, and hyperscale data center operators that have made significant capital expenditures. Investors favor companies that demonstrate tangible artificial intelligence revenue, while being cautious towards those with less obvious earnings.

CryptoQuant analyst Moreno stated that USDT liquidity is experiencing one of the most severe contraction phases in history. The market value of USDT has decreased by about 4 billion dollars over the past 60 days, approaching historically low levels. At the same time, the liquidity contraction is still accelerating, with the USDT supply decreasing by about 870 million dollars in the past 11 days, indicating that this is not merely a lagging effect caused by previous redemptions.Stablecoins are the most direct source of available liquidity in the crypto market, and the continuous expansion of USDT is usually accompanied by stronger price performance of BTC, while prolonged contraction phases often correspond to weak demand, market corrections, and declining risk appetite. However, the correlation between USDT flows and BTC prices does not prove a direct causal relationship; both may be influenced by risk-averse sentiment, with redemption pressure and spot selling occurring simultaneously. The current decline in BTC is not an isolated event but is happening against the backdrop of a continuous shrinkage of one of the main sources of market liquidity, which also explains why the recent rebound has been difficult to sustain. To improve the market environment, we need to see the 60-day change in USDT stabilize, daily supply contraction slow down, and re-enter an expansion phase.

According to GMGN data, the market capitalization of Robinhood Meme coin CASHCAT briefly rebounded above 90 million USD, currently reported at approximately 87.89 million USD, with an intraday increase of over 36%.Market reminder: The prices of Meme coins are highly volatile, and there may be rapid increases or corrections in a short period. Please pay attention to liquidity and position risks.

According to Jinshi News, Citigroup strategist David Chew stated that the European stock market is the only major market area where risk appetite has significantly improved recently, thanks to new capital inflows and better-than-expected corporate earnings performance.The report pointed out that last week, the investment sentiment for all major European stock indices improved, while relevant indicators in the U.S. market showed a decline in investor confidence. Chew also mentioned that the European market benefited from the European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged.

According to TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight) monitoring, SPCX continued its rebound today, currently reported at $114.69, up 5.5% in 24 hours, and rebounding 9.5% from its low. From yesterday to today, all 7 million-dollar addresses have established long positions in SPCX, currently holding a total of 238,800 shares, with a position value of approximately $27.386 million, a weighted average entry price of about $112, and a total floating profit of approximately $636,000. Among them, the address starting with 0xb37 contributed the largest single entry.This whale has cumulatively bought 147,500 shares of SPCX through 83 transactions since early this morning, with a transaction amount of approximately $16.958 million and a weighted transaction price of about $114.96; currently holding a long position of approximately $16.918 million with 20x leverage, which is its only current position. As of the time of writing, this position has a floating loss of about $40,000 (-5.1%), accounting for 61.8% of the total long positions of the aforementioned 7 addresses. Its liquidation price is $105.43, only about 8.1% away from the current price, close to SPCX's low of $105 last night; if the price falls back to last night's low, this whale will face liquidation risk first.Funding records show that this address received 1.449 million USDC yesterday morning and began establishing long positions in SPCX about 20 hours later. During the position building period this morning, the source address transferred an additional 350,000 USDC to it; the two recent transfers totaled approximately $1.799 million. This address first transferred in about 1 million USDC on July 10 and began trading. Since then, it has traded 21 assets, covering semiconductors, US stock indices, crude oil, and cryptocurrencies, with a cumulative profit of approximately $572,000.

Gilad Shainer, Senior Vice President of NVIDIA, announced at a recent technology forum that CPO has entered the mass production stage. The switches co-developed with the supply chain have begun delivery to closely collaborating customers and are being deployed in-house. It is expected that starting this year, switches equipped with CPO technology will be widely adopted in AI factories around the world.Shainer pointed out that the biggest opportunity in the future optical communication market lies in vertical scaling, which will require bandwidth efficiency more than ten times that of horizontal scaling. Previously, Shainer was responsible for R&D at Mellanox, and after the company was acquired by NVIDIA, he led the AI platform network transmission department and co-developed the COUPE silicon photonics packaging platform with TSMC. This announcement helps to dispel market concerns about the upgrade of optical communication specifications and boosts the operational outlook for related manufacturers.It is reported that NVIDIA has already implemented CPO on Spectrum-X, aiming to align with the upcoming large-scale deployment of the Vera Rubin AI platform (which has a computing speed at least three times faster than GB300). Trendforce estimates that the CPO/NPO market size will exceed $39 billion by 2030, with significant acceleration in growth momentum from 2028 to 2029 as optical interconnects are introduced with Scale-up.

Dongfang Harbor Chairman Dan Bin expressed his views this morning, stating that in July, the chip sector experienced a sharp decline and massive leveraged liquidations, but in the grand AI cycle, such a level of correction is both a necessary path and a sign of market health.The market has yet to fully understand the infinite demand potential of AI as an "intelligent" product. Concerns about capital expenditures from giants have echoed the early story of Amazon AWS, but the opportunities in AI are far greater. Funds are flowing back from low-quality tech stocks to high-quality targets, confirming the judgment of a "return of the king" by the end of 2026. Storage chips still face cyclical risks and high volatility, so it is advisable to wait for technical repairs, with a more optimistic view on fundamentally solid companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSMC, as funds will flow more towards quality application layers.On the other hand, the business of hyperscale cloud providers is accelerating growth, with a large backlog of orders and an increasing growth rate, indicating that the previous punishment of capital expenditures was a misjudgment, and these investments will translate into certain future revenues. Looking ahead to August, the Nasdaq's rebound is expected to continue until Nvidia's earnings report, and the tech sector's rolling adjustment is nearing its end, with funds accelerating back into high-quality tech stocks.In terms of specific sector operations, it is currently not advisable to blindly chase high prices in the chip and storage (memory) sectors. However, investors can adopt a short-term band trading strategy of buying on dips until the storage sector completely emerges from its bottoming pattern on a technical level.

According to Jinshi, this week the US stock market experienced rare fluctuations. Have those most eager to sell already sold out? The liquidation actions of star funds have triggered a rebound in AI stocks, and investors need to pay attention to the best judgment timing for next week's opening.

As market risk aversion increases, international gold prices have shown a mild recovery trend recently. According to CoinGlass data, gold (XAU) is currently priced at $4088.05, with a 24-hour increase of 0.68%. The total network position size is $858 million, of which Gate XAU's position amount reaches $174 million, firmly ranking among the top two in the industry; Tether Gold (XAUT) has a total network position size of $571 million, with Gate XAUT's contract position amount reaching $127 million, firmly ranking among the top three in the industry.