predict

According to sources, the cryptocurrency trading platform Gate (Gate Future entity) has recently obtained the Introducing Broker (IB) qualification in the United States and signed a cooperation agreement for the prediction market with relevant partners.Currently, Gate is advancing the technical integration and development of its products, planning to launch prediction market services in the United States, with the earliest possible launch by the end of 2026.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction on Polymarket for the event "Gold Digging vs. Thunder," the sub-market "Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 7.5" has seen a dramatic fluctuation in the probability of the "Yes" option, soaring from 36% an hour ago to the current 53% (a fluctuation of 17%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has prohibited all Pentagon personnel from using non-public information to place bets on upcoming military operations, involving prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. In a memo sent to senior Pentagon officials and defense agencies on Tuesday, he stated that all Department of Defense personnel are prohibited from using non-public information for financial transactions, with the relevant restrictions covering both classified and unclassified information.Austin wrote in the memo that adversaries will observe movements in these markets, and the safety of U.S. military personnel often depends on the enemy not knowing what is about to happen. He also pointed out that, aside from operational security, financial betting can distort judgment: a logistics personnel betting on the date of an operation will be concerned about that date, and an analyst holding a position on the outcome will also be concerned about that outcome.Before this directive was issued, U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke was charged in April for allegedly profiting over $400,000 on Polymarket by using classified information regarding the operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Prosecutors claimed he participated in the planning and execution of the operation and used advance knowledge to bet on the outcome of Maduro's ousting; he pleaded not guilty to all charges. In February, Israeli authorities also arrested and charged a military reservist and a civilian for allegedly using classified information to bet on events related to Israeli strikes against Iran on Polymarket.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket. A large whale invested $102,925.58 in the "Knights vs. 76ers" event, specifically betting on "Point Spread: 76ers (-2.5)". Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this bet is 51.46%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction on Polymarket for the event "Dota 2 PARIVISION vs Astra Invicta," the "Over" option in the sub-market "Total Kills Over/Under 55.5" has experienced significant fluctuations in win rate, soaring from 25.5% an hour ago to the current 50% (a fluctuation of 24.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the probability of the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 27.5" for the event "Nuggets vs. Thunder" on the prediction market Polymarket has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 30.5% an hour ago to the current 46.5% (a fluctuation of 16%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket event "Patriots vs. Bears," the "Patriots" option in the sub-market "2H Spread -6.5" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, dropping sharply from 52.5% an hour ago to the current 36% (a fluctuation of 16.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Cavaliers vs. 76ers" on Polymarket, the option "Cavaliers" in the sub-market "Team to Score First" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, rising from 50% an hour ago to the current 69% (a fluctuation of 19%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket. A large whale invested $86,680.99 in the event "Power Balance: 2026 Midterm Elections," betting on "Democratic Victory." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 67%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event "LoL: Galions vs Solary - EMEA Masters Playoffs" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Galions" option in the sub-market "Match Winner" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 56% an hour ago to the current 85.5% (a fluctuation of 29.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event "Number of Musk Tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "280-299" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 33% an hour ago to the current 49% (a fluctuation of 16%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the market Polymarket. A large whale invested $92,933.74 in a single buy for the "Federal Reserve October Decision" event, targeting "No Change." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding win rate for this subject is 92%.

According to a report by Cointelegraph, DWF Labs pointed out in a research report released on Thursday that the daily capital flow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF is difficult to predict for Bitcoin's subsequent trends, with investors more inclined to buy after price increases and withdraw during declines.The study covers 694 trading days since the launch of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF in January 2024: in 8 instances where the Bitcoin price fell by 15%, there were net outflows of ETF funds in 7 of those cases; while in all 9 instances where the price rose by 15%, there were net inflows of funds.DWF Labs concluded that ETF capital flows are more about confirming market trends rather than predicting them in advance. Data shows that the correlation coefficient of the day's ETF capital flow with the price changes of Bitcoin over the previous 5 trading days is 0.54, but the correlation coefficient with the price changes over the subsequent 5 trading days is only 0.03. From October 2025 to February 2026, the net outflow from Bitcoin ETFs was approximately $6.9 billion, and during the market decline from May to June 2026, the net outflow was about $8.2 billion.DWF Labs also noted that some ETF trades may involve buying fund shares while simultaneously shorting Bitcoin through futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as a hedging strategy, so the capital flow does not directly reflect investors' true bullish or bearish positions.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin Breaks on October 22" on Polymarket, the winning probability of the sub-market "82,000" for the "Yes" option has experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from 65.2% an hour ago to the current 43.8% (a fluctuation of 21.4%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to the official announcement, Gate has launched pre-trading for the PREDICTUSDT perpetual contract (settled in USDT), supporting 1-10 times long and short operations.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $50,000 in the event "Power Balance: 2026 Midterm Elections" for the outcome "Republican Victory." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 8.82%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Pacers vs. Pelicans" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Kelly Oubre scoring over 11.5" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 29.5% an hour ago to the current 53% (a fluctuation of 23.5%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the probability of the "Kings" option in the sub-market "Team to Score First" for the "Kings vs. Clippers" event on the prediction market Polymarket has experienced significant fluctuations, dropping sharply from 66% an hour ago to the current 50% (a fluctuation of 16%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction on Polymarket for the "Hornets vs. Nets" event, the "Hornets" option in the sub-market "First Scoring Team" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 50% an hour ago to the current 73.5% (a fluctuation of 23.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "US-Iran Ceasefire Continues" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "November 15" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, plummeting from 52.5% an hour ago to the current 35.5% (a fluctuation of 17%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.