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Bitcoin's pullback impacts treasury companies, TD Cowen lowers Nakamoto's target price by 58% but maintains a "buy" rating

Wall Street investment bank TD Cowen has lowered the target price for Bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA), reducing the split-adjusted target price from $40 to $17, a decrease of 58%, but still maintaining a "Buy" rating. TD Cowen analysts stated that this adjustment is mainly due to the pressure on Nakamoto's highly leveraged capital structure from the decline in Bitcoin prices.Although the new target price still implies about a 275% upside from the current stock price of $4.65, the company's stock is highly sensitive to fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. TD Cowen expects Bitcoin to rebound to $100,000 by the end of 2026, which is about 25% lower than the historical high of $126,000 set last October. At the same time, the firm anticipates that Nakamoto will suspend further Bitcoin purchases before 2027.Analysts pointed out that Nakamoto's core value still comes from its Bitcoin assets, with the company currently holding 4,467 BTC, valued at approximately $290 million, ranking 22nd among publicly listed companies in terms of Bitcoin holdings. However, the company's debt and preferred stock financing structure have also compressed the asset value available to common stockholders. Recently, Nakamoto has completed several financial adjustments, including repaying approximately $45 million in debt, extending the principal of $105 million to June 2027, reducing financing costs, and approving a $25 million stock buyback plan. Additionally, the company has closed its previously operated medical clinic business and will focus on Bitcoin media, asset management, and consulting services in the future. Data shows that NAKA's stock price has fallen over 71% this year, while Bitcoin has declined about 26% during the same period. Market attention is shifting from "continuously purchasing BTC" to the asset-liability structure and financing capabilities of Bitcoin treasury companies.

hot_img Jensen Huang responds to Kimi's impact: the market misunderstands again, free AI benefits chip demand

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated in an exclusive interview with Axios on Tuesday that American companies "absolutely" should be allowed to use Chinese open-source AI models, directly challenging the Trump administration and some American AI labs' blockade policies.Huang believes that the market's panic over Kimi K3 is a misreading, similar to the sell-off triggered by DeepSeek in early 2025: cheaper open-source models will expand the AI audience and increase, rather than decrease, the demand for chips, data centers, and computing power. "Free AI is good for hardware, good for chips, good for data centers." He also refuted the notion that open-source models pose security risks, claiming that open-source is actually safer because external researchers can examine the models, expose vulnerabilities, and build defenses, while calling for Anthropic to open its Claude Mythos model to "everyone."Huang rejected the narrative that "China will defeat American companies," arguing that the AI race has no finish line and that China and the U.S. will coexist in the long term. Hours after the interview, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the government is reviewing whether Chinese AI models are stealing intellectual property and considering sanctions. Huang responded that knowledge distillation is the foundation of intelligence and that accountability should be directed at violations rather than the models themselves.
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