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Analysis: MSTR has dropped 78% from its peak, and its BTC holding cost is now higher than the spot price

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Strategy's preferred stock MSTR has fallen 78% from its peak, while Bitcoin has dropped 51% from its peak. The average cost basis for Strategy's 847,363 BTC holdings is $75,651, with a total cost of $64.1 billion. The current BTC price has fallen below this cost line for the first time since the bear market of 2022. The additional decline of MSTR relative to BTC has reached about 28 percentage points, approaching the upper end of the historical range, but has not yet touched the extreme of an 89% retracement from the 2022 low.Meanwhile, Strategy's purchasing strategy has clearly shifted to a defensive stance: the weekly BTC purchase volume has been cut by about two-thirds, with less than 11% of the $335.5 million raised through stock issuance used to buy BTC, and the remainder transferred to dollar reserves. At the end of May, Strategy also conducted its first net sell since 2022, selling 32 BTC to pay STRC dividends. Adler pointed out that the main risk currently lies in BTC remaining below the treasury cost line of $75,000, which would block the financing channel for ATM issuance by compressing the MSTR premium. However, nearly all of Strategy's debt is in convertible bonds, with no additional margin risk; the baseline scenario is the loss of marginal buyers rather than cascading liquidations. The real pressure point lies in the company's transition from selling stock to systematically selling BTC itself to pay preferred stock dividends and debt interest.

Joseph Lubin: Ethereum will not have a "second foundation," nor will it become a completely zero-knowledge proof-based protocol in the next 3-5 years

According to The Block, Consensys CEO Joseph Lubin stated that Ethereum is expected to evolve into a protocol fully based on zero-knowledge proofs (ZK Proof) within the next 3 to 5 years, which will not only optimize the main chain but also enhance Ethereum's compatibility with Layer 2.Joseph Lubin mentioned that he supports the "Rollup-centric roadmap," believing that by strengthening Layer 1, introducing the "Lean Ethereum" initiative, and promoting ZK proofs, the foundational layer of Ethereum can be significantly upgraded. Lean Ethereum aims to achieve over 10,000 transactions per second while maintaining a high level of decentralization on the mainnet, and supports privacy and quantum-resistant solutions.Regarding Layer 2, Joseph Lubin pointed out that ZK technology has already achieved real-time proofs in some L2 networks and plans to extend this capability to Layer 1, ultimately transitioning to a fully ZK foundational protocol supported by multiple provers. For example, projects like the Linea chain developed by Consensys and Gnosis are utilizing zero-knowledge proofs to achieve cross-network synchronized transactions, potentially eliminating the need for bridging and unifying fragmented liquidity.Joseph Lubin emphasized that the initial "differentiation phase" of the Rollup roadmap aims to provide experimental space for Layer 2 technologies. Although it may temporarily disperse liquidity, it lays the groundwork for Ethereum's future limitless scalability and technological iteration. He believes that some L2 technologies will become systemically important components, and this exploratory process is necessary.Additionally, Joseph Lubin responded to rumors regarding recent personnel changes at the Ethereum Foundation (EF) and the "second foundation," stating that there will not be a second foundation. The EF will continue to focus on core protocol development, usability and scalability, as well as institutional collaboration, while supporting at least three independent teams to spin off from the EF, focusing on protocol, user experience, and institutional expansion efforts.
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