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Data: Bitcoin has entered the late-stage bear market compression phase, but the real demand signals have not yet appeared

Glassnode published a market perspective stating that Bitcoin is currently caught between the median realized price (around $63,000) and the cost basis of short-term holders (around $68,700). Spot trading volume has hit its lowest level since 2019, and the market is in an extremely quiet compression state. Despite core inflation falling to 2.5% in July and the stock market reaching new highs, Bitcoin has shown almost no reaction and even weakened, indicating a clear lack of demand.On the other hand, selling pressure is easing: profit supply is approaching the past bear market bottom area, the seller exhaustion indicator has hit a cycle low, and the adjusted SOPR has been rejected near the breakeven line nine times. Meanwhile, buyers continue to be absent, with minimal net inflows into ETFs, and coins are still flowing into exchanges; however, derivatives leverage has already massively gone long, with open interest relative to trading volume being high, and the order book's buy side is also thinning. Glassnode believes that the key observation points are the upper level of $68,700 and the lower level of about $58,500: effectively standing above the former with accompanying volume and ETF inflows recovering may confirm improvement, while losing the latter could easily lead to accelerated declines under thin buy support and crowded longs. Glassnode remains cautious overall, believing this is the late-stage bear market compression phase, and real demand signals have yet to appear.

Data: Bitcoin volatility has dropped to a low point not seen in the past two years, and the market may be brewing for significant fluctuations

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's current volatility has compressed to very low levels, and the market has not yet formed a clear direction. The Bollinger Band width is currently around 3.8% to 3.9%, one of the lowest levels in the past two years, while it was still at double-digit levels at the beginning of July. He pointed out that a significant narrowing of the Bollinger Bands usually indicates that the market is entering a compression phase before volatility expansion, but this indicator alone cannot determine the direction of the next market trend.In terms of trend strength, the Bitcoin ADX indicator has currently dropped to 11, close to recent lows, and is significantly below the 25 threshold used by its model to confirm trends. Currently, TrendActive has not yet been activated, and neither bullish nor bearish signals have appeared; the last directional signal at the beginning of July was bearish, but the current market structure no longer confirms this signal. Adler stated that for the market to enter a new trend phase, the Bollinger Band width needs to expand again from the current compressed state, while the ADX breaks above 25. Subsequently, the direction can be judged based on the relationship between +DI and -DI: if one side leads by more than 5 points, it may trigger the corresponding bullish or bearish signal. He believes that Bitcoin is still in a consolidation phase, with both volatility and trend strength at low levels, and the risk of a false breakout in the short term still exists. The current structure increases the possibility of significant volatility expansion in the future, but it is still unclear whether the price will ultimately break upwards or downwards.
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