guidance

AI cloud computing company Nebius announced its third-quarter financial report, with revenue increasing by 571% year-on-year to $981 million, exceeding market expectations by about 8%; adjusted EBITDA reached $466 million, also higher than the expected $357 million. However, the company expects its full-year revenue for 2026 to fall at the lower end of the guidance range of $3 billion to $3.4 billion, below the market expectation of about $3.37 billion.What draws more market attention is that Nebius expects capital expenditures in 2027 to reach $40 billion to $45 billion, while providing a revenue outlook of $12 billion to $13 billion, approximately four times that of 2026. The company stated that customer prepayments and investment-grade contract asset-backed financing are expected to cover 75% to 85% of next year's capital expenditures, with the scale of prepayments expected to increase from about $10 billion this year to $17 billion to $20 billion.The company's CEO stated that since the third quarter, the total value of newly signed contracts has exceeded $12 billion, with Databricks, Datadog, Palantir, and Snowflake all signing multi-year agreements with the company for the first time. Despite significantly exceeding expectations, the full-year revenue guidance fell short of expectations, and the capital expenditure plan of up to $45 billion next year has raised market concerns about AI infrastructure expansion and financing pressures.

According to the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, on November 4, 2026, the IPO guidance public announcement system on the official website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission showed that the Hong Kong-listed company Xizhi Technology (1879.HK, Shanghai Xizhi Technology Co., Ltd.) submitted an A-share IPO guidance filing to the Shanghai Securities Regulatory Bureau, with Guotai Junan as the guiding securities firm.Xizhi Technology was established in February 2018, with its registered location in Zhangjiang, Shanghai. Its main business is the research and development, and sales of optical interconnection and optical computing products. In 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 106 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -1.342 billion yuan. As of the close of the Hong Kong stock market on November 3, the company's total market value was approximately 14.7 billion Hong Kong dollars.

Japanese NAND flash memory manufacturer Kioxia Holdings saw its stock price drop by 15% on Monday. The company provided a guidance for operating profit of 2 trillion yen (approximately 12.7 billion USD) for the December quarter last Friday, which is below the consensus expectation of analysts at 2.35 trillion yen and only slightly higher than the 1.99 trillion yen recorded in the September quarter. In previous quarters, Kioxia's operating profit surged due to the procurement of high-speed NAND storage by artificial intelligence data centers.Kioxia attributed the slowdown in growth mainly to the timing of shipments rather than a weakening demand. Some orders originally scheduled for delivery this quarter were moved to the September quarter at the request of customers, while others were postponed to the March quarter next year due to an increase in the proportion of enterprise storage and longer production and delivery cycles. Chief Financial Officer Yoshihiko Kawamura stated in a conference call last week that the company expects to see a rapid recovery in growth in the March quarter, with demand from artificial intelligence data center operators remaining strong.Kawamura also mentioned that the company's planned production capacity for next year is already sold out, and more than half of the production for the following year has also been allocated. Some major customers have begun negotiations for contracts covering 2029 and beyond. Kioxia competes with Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology, focusing primarily on NAND, while its South Korean counterparts also sell DRAM needed for artificial intelligence computing.

According to the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, NAND flash memory manufacturer Kioxia achieved revenue of 2.480 trillion yen in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 (July to September), a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.3%; operating profit was 1.995 trillion yen, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 57.1%. Kioxia expects a net profit of 3.56 trillion yen for the first nine months, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 61.0%.Kioxia expects operating profit of 2.00 trillion yen in the third quarter, while market expectations are for 2.35 trillion yen. The company will distribute an interim dividend of 90 yen per share. The company stated that the revenue growth is mainly due to strong demand from generative AI data center customers, which has significantly driven up the average selling price of products and increased bit shipments.

Microsoft expects its Azure cloud business revenue to grow by 49% to 50% in the second fiscal quarter, with total revenue reaching between 96 billion and 97.1 billion dollars.Revenue from the Intelligent Cloud and Infrastructure segment is expected to be between 80.1 billion and 80.7 billion dollars, while revenue from the Devices and Consumer segment is projected to be between 15.9 billion and 16.4 billion dollars. Microsoft also anticipates that capital expenditures in the second fiscal quarter will exceed 50 billion dollars.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated not to trust forward guidance unless a crisis occurs.

Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Blinder stated that now is an excellent time for Waller to use forward guidance. Blinder pointed out that the Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma, as decision-makers can provide ample justification for either maintaining interest rates or raising them. He believes that the so-called "hawkish pause" can only be reflected through forward guidance.

Nick Timiraos, the "Fed's Mouthpiece," stated that when Waller took office, it coincided with the Federal Reserve's shift to a tightening cycle; historically, such periods are often when "forward guidance" plays a key role. It is commonly believed that "forward guidance" originated during the ultra-loose monetary policy period of 2008-2009 and afterward, as the Federal Reserve heavily relied on this tool when interest rates hit the "zero lower bound." However, in reality, the history of forward guidance can be traced back to 1999.At that time, Federal Reserve officials wanted to retract the rate cuts made in 1998 while also avoiding the miscommunication that caught the market off guard during the rate hikes of 1994. Therefore, in May 1999, the Federal Reserve attempted for the first time to issue a policy statement after a meeting where interest rates were kept unchanged.Previously, the Federal Reserve would only release statements after meetings where interest rates were adjusted. Six weeks later, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. The minutes from the May 1999 meeting indicated that officials were already aware of the high likelihood of a rate hike and hoped to guide market expectations accordingly. Officials did not want the market to misinterpret their policy intentions.

IBM's revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 was 17.1 billion dollars, a year-on-year increase of about 5%. The adjusted earnings per share were 2.95 dollars, both exceeding analysts' expectations. The company raised its full-year software revenue growth guidance to about 7%–8% and increased its full-year free cash flow growth guidance to over 1 billion dollars.Previously delayed software and mainframe deals, due to customer spending shifting towards data center infrastructure, have started to sign contracts. Free cash flow for the first nine months totaled 8 billion dollars, setting a historical record for the same period. IBM's stock price fell 4.95% in after-hours trading, closing at 239.02 dollars.

Tesla (TSLA.O) Chief Financial Officer announced that this year's capital expenditure guidance has been raised to 20 billion dollars.

The website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission shows that CITIC Securities released the "Report on the Progress of the Guidance Work for the Initial Public Offering and Listing of MiniMax Group Inc. (Phase II)" on October 15. This phase of guidance started on July 10, 2026, and lasted for more than three months. CITIC Securities, together with Tongshang Law Firm and Ernst & Young, continuously monitors the company's operational performance and compliance in accordance with regulatory requirements and the guidance agreement, and conducts guidance through on-site training and communication on specific issues.The report states that the guidance target has established an internal governance structure and relevant company management systems, but there is still room for optimization in execution. CITIC Securities will collaborate with intermediary institutions, combine due diligence, continuously refine and improve corporate governance and standardized operations, propose rectification suggestions, and supervise the implementation of internal controls. In the next phase, work will continue with Tongshang Law Firm and Ernst & Young, focusing on enhancing standardized operational levels and preparing for guidance acceptance.On May 29, 2026, CITIC Securities signed a guidance agreement with MiniMax and submitted a guidance filing application to the Shanghai Regulatory Bureau of the China Securities Regulatory Commission on the same day, which was accepted, marking MiniMax's official entry into the guidance period. The large model company MiniMax (00100.HK) was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 9, 2026, approximately four years from establishment to listing, and has focused on the research and development of full-modal models since its inception.

Spot gold rose slightly on Tuesday but remained trading below $4,200 per ounce. This followed a sell-off in the precious metals market triggered by U.S. Treasury yields rising to multi-decade highs and an increase in oil prices. IG analysts stated that gold only rebounded slightly due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a longer period. Traders expect a 72.5% probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October. The market is focused on U.S. economic data, including the Consumer Confidence Index and job vacancy data.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that he would not disclose details of the Federal Open Market Committee's future interest rate decisions and emphasized that he is not responsible for providing forward guidance.Waller mentioned that today's rate hike decision was made after careful consideration, not driven by the market, but based on an assessment of the current situation, employment trends, and economic strength.

According to the FCA official website, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) of the United Kingdom has released new guidance on the regulation of crypto assets to help businesses understand the scope and authorization requirements of the future crypto asset regime in the UK. This regime will officially take effect on October 25, 2027, and the application channel for authorization will open on September 30, 2026.The guidance covers activities such as issuing qualified stablecoins, operating crypto asset trading platforms, trading and matching, crypto asset custody, and staking arrangements. FCA Executive Director David Geale stated that this guidance aims to provide clarity for businesses so they can confidently prepare for regulation. The government has also made targeted amendments to relevant laws, introducing certain exemption clauses and further clarifying provisions for specific technology service providers. The FCA will launch a special consultation in October regarding the aforementioned legal changes, involving topics such as qualified stablecoins, proprietary trading and market making, decentralized protocols, and financial promotions.

Zhipu stated in a conference call with analysts and investors that it has signed revenue-sharing agreements with several leading domestic and international cloud service providers, and the related revenue will start to be recognized from October.The cooperation model involves providing services for the GLM series of open-source models in the form of hosted APIs on overseas cloud platforms. Currently, the company's total business ARR has reached 1.8 billion USD, and the year-end ARR guidance has been raised from 2.4 billion USD to 3 billion USD.

NASDAQ-listed company Hyperion DeFi (NASDAQ: HYPD) announced on September 8, 2026, an upward revision of its full-year guidance for 2026 and initiated a common stock repurchase plan of up to $20 million. The company claims to be the first publicly listed DeFi company in the U.S. built on Hyperliquid. The full-year adjusted gross profit guidance has been raised from the previous $5 million to $7 million to $7 million to $8 million.The company expects adjusted net operating cash flow to turn positive in the third quarter of 2026, earlier than the previous expectation of "turning positive by the end of 2026"; and it anticipates that core operating income will turn positive in the third quarter, with adjusted gross profit from the core DeFi business expected to exceed operating expenses after excluding equity incentives for the first time. The adjusted gross profit guidance for the third quarter is $2 million to $2.5 million, with operating expenses after excluding equity incentives at $2 million to $2.25 million, and core operating income at $0 to $500,000.The board has authorized the repurchase of up to $20 million of common stock in circulation within a maximum of 12 months, which can be conducted through open market purchases, private negotiations, block trades, and other methods, with no specific quantity guaranteed. The plan may be extended, suspended, or terminated at any time. CEO Hyunsu Jung stated that the DeFi business has accelerated recently, and the core business in the third quarter is expected to achieve breakeven in terms of profit and cash flow, noting that HYPD common stock is currently trading at a discount of about 20% to 30% relative to net assets.

Huobi HTX will hold a themed debate today at 20:00 titled "The Federal Reserve Cuts Forward Guidance: Regaining Independence or Triggering Market Panic?"The affirmative side representatives Li Qian, Guobao, Wanqu, and yuli will engage in dialogue with the negative side representatives Mr. Mis, Zizi, 0xmeg, and Qingfeng, focusing on the potential impacts of the Federal Reserve's weakening of forward guidance on policy transparency, market expectations, and asset pricing changes, as well as discussing how U.S. stocks, gold, and crypto assets will be repriced.