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Market pricing shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates more than once before mid-2027 has decreased.

Goldman Sachs analyst Robert Kaplan stated that the Federal Reserve's decision not to raise interest rates in July was "absolutely" correct and urged policymakers to keep an open mind before September, citing the complex factors influencing inflation, and that rigid forward guidance could be counterproductive.Kaplan said, "If I see meaningful improvement, I might be willing to stay put, but I want to make full use of every moment before September to make judgments, avoiding rigidity or preconceived notions." Kaplan believes that the current forces at play include: inflationary pressures from AI development, tariffs, labor constraints, and soaring oil prices; meanwhile, the application of AI works in the opposite direction, accelerating the trend of declining inflation.He stated that Waller should use his speech at this month's Jackson Hole symposium to briefly explain the reasons for the Federal Reserve's inaction in July, rather than delivering a purely "philosophical" speech. Kaplan expressed that his concerns about long-term U.S. Treasury yields are greater than his concerns about the federal funds rate itself.He indicated that the rise in long-term Treasury yields globally reflects a structural supply-demand imbalance driven by persistent large fiscal deficits, rather than Federal Reserve policy.

The market no longer fully prices in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes this year.

Market pricing shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the interest rate in the range of 3.5%-3.75% in September is about 65%, up from about 60% before the release of the PPI report.

The Federal Reserve's Harker reiterated that interest rates must be raised now, and the labor market is stable.

The cryptocurrency industry organization BlockchainAssn has submitted an amicus brief in support of Custodia Bank's application to the U.S. Supreme Court, urging the Court to review whether regional Federal Reserve Banks have the authority to deny access to master accounts for qualified state-chartered banks. The organization warns that lower court support for the Federal Reserve's ruling grants the central bank broad powers to disqualify industries or companies it does not recognize from receiving banking services, effectively vetoing which state-chartered banks can operate.Meanwhile, the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank has been granted an extension until September 11 to respond to Custodia's application.

Federal Reserve spokesperson Nick Timiraos stated that the July inflation report was largely in line with market expectations, easing the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.Wall Street is focused on CPI data, with some officials believing it is necessary to maintain higher interest rates, arguing that the current level of rates is restrictive and that the high inflation is due to external shocks rather than loose monetary policy.

Traders continue to bet on the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September at 45%.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $57,000.98 in a single buy for the "No Change" outcome during the "Federal Reserve's September Decision" event. Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding probability for this outcome is 40%.

Lianxin Bank stated that the CPI report for July released on Wednesday and the PPI report on Thursday may have a greater impact on the Federal Reserve's decision than employment data. Economists expect the year-on-year increase in CPI to drop from 3.5% in June to 3.4%. Bill Adams, the chief economist at Lianxin Bank, pointed out that if the data develops as expected, it will support the Federal Reserve's decision on September 16, and the inflation data for July will have a greater impact on the decision than this month's employment report.

Economists say that the mixed July employment report released last week has heightened the importance of inflation data. LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach pointed out that the path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes will depend on how long inflation remains elevated.Vanguard analyst Hicklin believes that the July employment report and the expected improvement in inflation will strengthen the Federal Reserve's reasons to hold steady before the end of the year. Recent data releases have bolstered market confidence that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this year.

Cleveland Fed President Harmack stated that current inflation has not yet returned to target levels, and the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates multiple times. She mentioned that a 25 basis point hike "will not have a significant impact on the economy," but she is unwilling to predict the specific number of rate hikes or the final interest rate level.Harmack believes that the current interest rate range of 3.5%-3.75% has not imposed a significant constraint on the economy, and businesses have not reduced growth investments due to high interest rates, therefore "now is the time to take action."

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller has sold all financial assets he committed to divest. Waller signed an ethics compliance certification with the government ethics office last Thursday, which was made public on the agency's website on Saturday. Waller had previously submitted a divestiture certification to the ethics office, showing that he had sold most of the assets he committed to divest. The latest disclosure document indicates that he has sold the remaining holdings involved in the agreement.Waller is one of the wealthiest officials in Federal Reserve history. He had committed to divesting holdings in several investments, the underlying assets of which were not disclosed due to confidentiality agreements—some of which are valued at least $100 million.

White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett stated that he would not succeed Lisa Cook if the Federal Reserve Board member were to be removed from her position due to related allegations.Hassett mentioned that the allegations against Cook are matters under investigation by law enforcement and expressed, "I hope Cook is innocent." Previously, Cook had been challenging the Trump administration's attempts to remove her from her position as a Federal Reserve Board member.Regarding monetary policy, Hassett indicated that if he were involved in decision-making, he would lean towards maintaining the current interest rate levels or implementing rate cuts. He believes that inflation in the United States is easing, while the growth momentum on the supply side remains strong, providing room for a more accommodative policy environment.

Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos stated that for the Federal Reserve, the July employment report will be a difficult data set to interpret. New evidence that the labor market has not re-accelerated may weaken the urgency for a rate hike next month, but this still depends on better inflation data.The decline in the unemployment rate will continue to keep the market focused on inflation data. Whether price pressures are rising or falling will determine if more officials conclude that they cannot maintain their inflation target forecasts with interest rates unchanged. A moderate inflation report will strengthen the rationale for keeping rates unchanged (as two consecutive months of moderate data begin to show a trend rather than noise). Conversely, strong data would call the forecasts into question again and give officials opposing a rate hike the opportunity to seek a fourth vote in favor.

In July, the United States unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs, far below the expected increase of 80,000. The increase in June was also revised down to only 20,000. Despite the weak job market, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos commented that in July, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 4.09% because both the number of job seekers and the number counted as unemployed decreased; this data brought the unemployment rate to its lowest level in two years.Analysts pointed out that this disappointing report has reignited concerns about the labor market and may complicate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, as policymakers need to seek a balance between weak employment and persistent inflation. As a result, market expectations for interest rate hikes quickly receded.Affected by this, U.S. stock index futures surged rapidly, with Nasdaq futures up 0.79% for the day, S&P 500 futures up 0.39%, and Dow futures up 0.27%. U.S. Treasury prices soared, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury currently down 4.29 basis points, reported at 4.627%; non-U.S. currencies generally rose, with the dollar against the yen briefly falling 80 points, reported at 157.72.At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index DXY briefly fell nearly 30 points, reported at 99.67. Spot gold briefly rose about $40, reported at $4,351.43 per ounce.

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that before the non-farm data release, the probability of "Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September" on Polymarket has risen to 48%, up 5% in 24 hours, and up 24% for the month; the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September has fallen to 49%, down 21% for the month.The U.S. July non-farm payroll report will be released today at 20:30 Beijing time, with Wall Street institutions predicting a data range from 18,000 to 83,000, showing significant divergence. Market participants believe that if the final data significantly deviates from expectations, there could be severe fluctuations in the stock, bond, and dollar markets. The unemployment rate remains a core variable of concern for the Federal Reserve. Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave pointed out that if the data shows "everything is safe" in the labor market, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates up to three times this year, but the federal funds futures market is currently only pricing in one rate hike for the year.