election

The Washington State Court has ordered the prediction market platform Kalshi to cease offering prediction services related to sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, technology, and science, due to its violation of the state's gambling laws.The court also requires Kalshi to implement geofencing technology by September 2 to prevent users in Washington State from accessing the relevant services.

According to official news, Gate has launched the AI Potential Stocks feature. This feature will scan market volume and price anomalies, major events, industry news, and related news clues through AI before each trading day, helping users quickly understand the main themes that the market may focus on that day, the relevant reasons, and the subsequent transmission direction. The AI Potential Stocks feature is the first to introduce AI research capabilities and supply chain analysis into the cryptocurrency industry market research scenario, upgrading the AI-driven pre-market investment research experience. This feature will focus on markets such as US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and Korean stocks, selecting 2-3 stock clues that have capital verification, news support, and may not have been fully noticed yet. The content will revolve around three dimensions: "what to pay attention to, why to pay attention, and how the impact extends," helping users efficiently complete pre-market information screening.AI Potential Stocks focuses on market theme rotation, volume and price anomalies, and major news signals, helping users understand the logic behind changes in market focus rather than simply displaying popular stocks. In addition, Gate will continue to improve its push notification capabilities around AI Potential Stocks, forming a mechanism for timely pre-market summaries, major event reminders, and personalized attention updates. The AI Potential Stocks feature is now supported on Gate App v8.31.0 and above; users can access this feature through the bottom navigation bar [TradFi] - [Stocks] list; web users can enter through the market page or directly visit the feature page to use it. In the future, Gate will continuously deepen the construction of AI research capabilities, improve the AI-driven investment research analysis system, and continuously optimize event version content, major event reminders, and personalized summaries around AI Potential Stocks, gradually forming a mechanism for information delivery that combines pre-market summaries, event reminders, and user attention updates, providing users with more timely and clear market references.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "Clacton By-Election: Farage's Vote Share" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Farage 60--70%" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 28.85% an hour ago to the current 67.75% (a fluctuation of 38.9%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "Clacton By-Election: Farage's Vote Share" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Farage 80%+" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, plummeting from 48.5% an hour ago to the current 30.5% (a fluctuation of 18%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

The U.S. Senate has postponed the vote on the CLARITY Act until after the summer recess, increasing uncertainty about the bill's passage in the short term.The CLARITY Act had previously received bipartisan support in the House of Representatives and aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for digital assets, clarify the responsibilities of different regulatory agencies, and promote the further integration of crypto assets into the U.S. financial system.North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis stated that with the vote postponed until September, the probability of the bill's final passage "may have decreased by 50%." Wyoming Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, who is responsible for pushing the negotiations, indicated that discussions have been ongoing for nearly 11 months, the bill text has increased by about 300 pages, and it has responded to numerous amendment requests from Democrats, and it should now enter the voting phase.Currently, Democrats still oppose the existing version, with the main disagreement centered on the restrictions on government officials' interests in crypto assets. Democrats believe that the current version does not adequately limit federal officials' investments and promotion of crypto assets, nor does it require relevant personnel to fully divest from related holdings, while also seeking to grant state attorneys general stronger enforcement powers.Some Democratic and Republican lawmakers had previously pushed for the inclusion of stricter ethical oversight provisions, but negotiations are still ongoing. Democrats are particularly concerned about the connections between Trump and his family with crypto projects like World Liberty Financial.Previously, the crypto industry hoped the Senate could advance procedural voting before the summer recess to adjust political investments during the 2026 midterm elections based on legislative progress. Data shows that the crypto industry's main political action committee, Fairshake, held nearly $200 million in cash reserves at the beginning of this cycle.

According to Jinshi reports, as the midterm elections approach, American Republicans are beginning to consider raising the debt ceiling again.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the "2028 Presidential Election Winner" event is currently among the hottest trades on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative pool size reaching $67.344 billion. The option with the highest market consensus is "JD Vance," corresponding to an estimated winning probability of about 20.05%.

According to BeInCrypto, El Salvador's two major opposition parties, ARENA and FMLN, have nominated Maytee Iraheta and Rafael Aguirre, respectively, as candidates for the presidential election in February 2027, challenging the re-election campaign of current President Nayib Bukele. Both candidates have not supported Bukele's Bitcoin strategy and have publicly criticized it as a financial failure.Bukele's New Ideas party has nominated him to run, with his approval rating reaching as high as 94% in recent polls, but this support mainly comes from improvements in public safety rather than Bitcoin policy—polls show that only 2.2% of Salvadorans believe Bitcoin is their biggest failure. Bitcoin is no longer mandatory legal tender in the country following the IMF loan agreement in February 2025, with the dollar resuming its status as the only official currency for daily transactions. However, the El Salvador Bitcoin Office continues to buy Bitcoin, acquiring about 1 BTC daily, and as of July 27, its holdings have risen to approximately 7,730 BTC. The IMF has repeatedly warned that the Bitcoin strategy poses financial and governance risks and has not significantly improved financial inclusivity for unbanked residents. The next president will decide whether this accumulation continues.

According to Bits.media, Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the Financial Market Committee of the State Duma of Russia, stated that the second and third readings of the criminal liability bill for illegal cryptocurrency transactions will be postponed until the new State Duma is reviewed. The reason is that the Duma's spring session will end on July 27, and there will be an election recess from August to September, with the Duma election voting ending on September 20. Therefore, the review will not resume until the autumn session at the earliest.The bill completed its first reading in early July, with a maximum penalty of 7 years in prison for organizing illegal cryptocurrency circulation. The relevant penalty provisions are proposed to officially take effect on July 1, 2027. Under the current regulatory framework, Russian citizens can only buy and sell cryptocurrencies through institutions holding a license from the Central Bank of Russia, and P2P and over-the-counter transactions may face criminal liability. Aksakov denied concerns that the bill would affect cryptocurrency exchanges and P2P users, stating that the related worries are "unfounded." Meanwhile, another Russian government initiative to strengthen state control over cryptocurrencies, the "Digital Currency and Digital Rights Law," has also been postponed, with the original timelines for implementation in July and September now missed.

According to Public Citizen data, Ripple, Coinbase, and other cryptocurrency companies contributed $189 million to the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. Cryptocurrency companies accounted for 37% of the total $517 million in corporate political donations. Previously, during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, political donations from the cryptocurrency industry were approximately $160 million, and the cryptocurrency industry accelerated lobbying after the Trump administration took office, seeking to solidify the results of regulatory loosening.

According to CoinDesk, U.S. President Trump refused to sign a bipartisan housing bill that includes a four-year ban on the central bank digital currency (CBDC), temporarily canceling the scheduled signing ceremony and demanding that Congress first pass his proposed SAVE AMERICA ACT election bill.The CBDC provision in the housing bill would prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital dollar before the end of 2030, which was originally seen as an important advancement by the cryptocurrency industry.

According to Cointelegraph, crypto-related political action committees (PACs) and industry executives have invested over $500 million in the 2026 U.S. elections.Follow the Crypto data shows that crypto industry companies and related individuals have contributed over $320 million, and crypto-related PACs still hold over $245 million in cash; among them, Republican-related candidates/committees received about $127 million in support, significantly higher than the approximately $11.5 million for Democrats.

According to Cointelegraph, NYDIG research director Greg Cipolaro stated that if the U.S. Senate's cryptocurrency market structure bill does not pass before August, it may completely fail after the midterm elections. Cipolaro pointed out that the Senate Banking Committee passed the bill along party lines last week, but it needs 60 votes to pass in the Senate. Congress will be in recess from late July to early September, and then enter the pre-midterm election period, making it unlikely that Senate leadership will schedule a controversial 60-vote vote.If this window is missed, the most likely path is a post-election lame-duck session. If the Democrats control the Senate after the midterm elections, the current Republican-supported bill is unlikely to advance in the new Congress in January. Cipolaro stated that lawmakers face a choice: either accept an imperfect bipartisan framework or confront a drastically different legislative environment after the midterm elections. The White House's cryptocurrency advisors previously aimed to pass the bill by July 4, but Cipolaro believes a more realistic window is from June to early August.

According to Axios, American Republicans are increasingly dissatisfied with the flow of political donations in the cryptocurrency industry, demanding that the pro-crypto super PAC Fairshake, which holds about $165 million in funds, clarify its stance and focus on supporting Republican candidates in the 2026 midterm elections.Republicans pointed out that, against the backdrop of significant progress in promoting pro-crypto legislation such as the CLARITY Act, Fairshake has yet to announce specific election investment plans, which is disappointing. The points of contention include:Ohio Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown: Fairshake spent over $40 million in 2024 to defeat incumbent Senator Brown, but Brown's attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry has noticeably softened in recent years.New Hampshire Congressman Chris Pappas: His Stand With Crypto rating rose from "F" to "A" within 8 months, and Republicans initially expected Fairshake to focus on his campaign.In response, Fairshake supporters stated that it is still too early to speak out and emphasized that the PAC is bipartisan in nature, aiming to "reward supporters and punish critics," rather than unconditionally supporting a particular party. Some pro-crypto Republicans (such as the Winklevoss brothers) have established separate independent groups specifically to support Republican candidates.

According to The New York Times, the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) and its co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz have disclosed a total of over $115 million in federal donations during this midterm election cycle, surpassing George Soros ($102.9 million), Elon Musk ($85 million), and Jeff Yass ($81.8 million), making them the largest known political donor in this election cycle.Compared to the approximately $63 million in donations for the 2024 election cycle, this round of donations has seen significant growth. Notably, on November 6, 2024 (the day after the election), a16z injected over $23 million into a major super PAC in the cryptocurrency industry, indicating that its political strategy has a clear long-term intention.

According to CoinDesk, Jesse Spiro, head of government affairs at Tether, warned at the Consensus conference that the 2026 U.S. midterm elections could have a significant impact on the crypto industry and will be a key test of whether Washington's recent friendly attitude towards digital assets can endure.He pointed out that the industry has made progress over the past year, including the passage of the GENIUS Act and advancements in market structure legislation, but these achievements could be overturned by the elections. Spiro emphasized that the crypto industry should not be partisan, and the best scenario is to gain bipartisan support. Colin McLaren, head of government relations at the Solana Policy Research Institute, stated that the industry's political efforts are focused on "persistence," ensuring that Congress continues to advance priorities such as tax reform and developer protections.Mason Lynaugh, executive director of Stand With Crypto, said that the organization's nearly 3 million members view the elections as a "moment of accountability," with high enthusiasm among crypto voters that could sway results in closely contested elections.

According to Reuters, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed the review of the first batch of predictive market ETFs, resulting in the postponement of more than 24 products originally scheduled for launch. Insiders revealed that the SEC is requesting issuers to provide further clarification on product mechanisms and information disclosure details, and this delay is expected to be temporary.Issuers such as Roundhill Investments, Bitwise Asset Management, and GraniteShares submitted applications in February this year to launch ETF products linked to real-world events such as election results, economic recessions, tech layoffs, and oil prices.According to SEC rules, ETF applications typically become effective automatically 75 days after submission unless the regulatory agency intervenes. Currently, Roundhill has set May 5 as the effective date, and Bitwise and GraniteShares' products are also expected to launch around the same time. The market is closely watching whether the SEC will ultimately approve these products that open up the "event contract" asset class.Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated, "This is a rapidly maturing field, and regulation is maturing in parallel," noting that innovative products like Bitcoin ETFs have also gone through a lengthy review process but ultimately launched successfully.

A survey commissioned by CoinDesk of 1,000 registered voters in the United States shows that only 1% of respondents listed cryptocurrency as the most important issue in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, ranking almost last among all concerns. In contrast, cost of living (36%), jobs and the economy (13%), and Social Security and Medicare (11%) emerged as the most pressing issues for voters.The survey also revealed that American voters generally hold a negative view of cryptocurrency, with only 27% of respondents indicating they have invested in, traded, or used cryptocurrency, while another 27% said they might participate in the future. About 47% of respondents believe the Republican Party is more friendly towards cryptocurrency, while only 14% think the Democratic Party is more supportive of the crypto industry; however, in terms of "which party they trust more to manage cryptocurrency affairs," the Democratic Party slightly leads with 27% over the Republican Party's 25%, while 40% expressed distrust in both parties.Although cryptocurrency is not a core election issue, about 40% of respondents still indicated they are more inclined to vote for candidates who align with their views on cryptocurrency, demonstrating that the issue of digital assets continues to gain influence in American politics.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart published an article revealing that the market ETF is expected to be officially launched next week. Roundhill's relevant application documents have been submitted, with an effective date set for May 5. The first predicted market ETFs will use the election results of the Democratic or Republican control of the House of Representatives or the Senate as the underlying asset.

Kim Hyun-jung, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea's Digital Assets Special Task Force, stated that they plan to submit the basic law on digital assets related to stablecoins (Phase Two legislation) after the local elections and simultaneously advance the review of the bill in the subcommittee.He pointed out that there are still differences regarding issues such as the shareholding restrictions for major shareholders of exchanges, which need further discussion. At the same time, he believes that, in the context of the Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-sung's positive attitude towards stablecoins, relevant legislation is expected to progress. In addition, the task force is considering meeting with him after the elections to advance the design of the CBDC and the Korean won stablecoin system.