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CITIC Securities: The high growth of earnings in the U.S. stock market may no longer be concentrated solely among leading technology companies

CITIC Securities released a research report indicating that as the performance of U.S. stocks during the domestic long holiday becomes desensitized to interest rates, investors' focus will shift to the upcoming third-quarter earnings reports of U.S. stocks starting next week.LSEG's consensus expectations show that the S&P 500's revenue and earnings growth rates for Q3 2026 are expected to reach 1.2% and 45.0% year-on-year, respectively, with a slight decline quarter-on-quarter. At the industry level, the year-on-year earnings growth rates for energy, information technology, materials, and healthcare all exceed 50%. The high growth in U.S. stock earnings may no longer be concentrated solely in leading technology companies, as the earnings contribution from non-tech sectors is significantly increasing.For Hong Kong stocks, although the overseas interest rate hike cycle combined with the restart of AI momentum trading continues to pressure liquidity, the fundamental expectations have bottomed out, and the earnings growth expectations for major broad-based indices have begun to be revised upward. The adjustment of industry earnings expectations is significantly differentiated, with some sub-sectors seeing upward revisions, while the earnings expectations for domestic demand-related industries still face downward pressure. The upcoming third-quarter performance will be an important basis for assessing the progress of recovery. We advise investors to remain patient with Hong Kong stocks, as short-term dividend strategies are expected to continue to outperform.

Trader: The memory sector is fluctuating while waiting for MU's earnings report, BTC may test the support at 82K

Trader degentrading (@degentradingLSD) pre-market analysis shows the following major signals in the current market:Macroeconomic Level: The 10Y yield has risen to 5.2%, and the 30Y has risen to 5.5%, approaching historical highs; the South Korean stock market opened down 2.5%, with the memory and semiconductor sectors (SK Hynix, Samsung, MU, SNDK) generally down 2% to 5%. It is expected that price movements will continue to fluctuate before MU's earnings report is released.New Cloud Computing: The investment payback period for computing projects is now less than a year, and market perceptions are changing. It is expected that the new cloud sector will undergo rapid revaluation, and the issue of power bottlenecks is also receiving increasing attention.Tech Stocks: META is weak pre-market, focusing on buying at the 690 support level or opportunities for breaking historical highs. If the large-scale data center sector breaks through as a whole, META, MSFT, and others will face paradigm-level repricing.Cryptocurrency Market: Mainstream coins and altcoins are generally weak, with BTC possibly testing the 82K support level; last week, TAO and DOGE were reduced, and CRDO was taken for profit to release risk capital. During the KBW period, crypto sentiment is usually somewhat positive, and this week's strategy focuses on finding short-term bullish opportunities.

Next week, the U.S. non-farm payroll and core PCE will be announced, and Micron will release its earnings report after the market closes on Wednesday

Next week's macro data focus will be on Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll report, including non-farm employment population, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage, which are directly related to the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and are important employment data ahead of the October monetary policy meeting. According to Beijing time, on Wednesday at 20:15, the U.S. September ADP employment figures will be released, and at 20:30, the U.S. August core PCE price index year-on-year will be announced; on Thursday at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 26 will be released, and on Friday at 20:30, the U.S. September seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population and unemployment rate will be published.Regarding officials' speeches, on Thursday at 16:00, Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak, and at 21:30, European Central Bank President Lagarde will speak. Starting from early Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials will have a series of public activities; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, along with 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, will speak in succession, and FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a keynote speech at the University at Buffalo. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Cook, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak in turn, and on Friday, Williams and Dallas Fed President Logan will still have public activities. In terms of U.S. stocks, Micron will release its earnings report after the market on Wednesday, and Nike will announce its latest quarterly earnings report on Thursday, with both companies corresponding to storage chips and consumer demand.
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