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Nebius's 2027 capital expenditure guidance is as high as 45 billion USD, with a pre-market decline of over 9%

AI cloud computing company Nebius announced its third-quarter financial report, with revenue increasing by 571% year-on-year to $981 million, exceeding market expectations by about 8%; adjusted EBITDA reached $466 million, also higher than the expected $357 million. However, the company expects its full-year revenue for 2026 to fall at the lower end of the guidance range of $3 billion to $3.4 billion, below the market expectation of about $3.37 billion.What draws more market attention is that Nebius expects capital expenditures in 2027 to reach $40 billion to $45 billion, while providing a revenue outlook of $12 billion to $13 billion, approximately four times that of 2026. The company stated that customer prepayments and investment-grade contract asset-backed financing are expected to cover 75% to 85% of next year's capital expenditures, with the scale of prepayments expected to increase from about $10 billion this year to $17 billion to $20 billion.The company's CEO stated that since the third quarter, the total value of newly signed contracts has exceeded $12 billion, with Databricks, Datadog, Palantir, and Snowflake all signing multi-year agreements with the company for the first time. Despite significantly exceeding expectations, the full-year revenue guidance fell short of expectations, and the capital expenditure plan of up to $45 billion next year has raised market concerns about AI infrastructure expansion and financing pressures.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: The leverage liquidation in the cryptocurrency market has been relatively sufficient, and the short-term space for further decline is limited

In October, the U.S. CPI exceeded expectations. After the data was released, BTC briefly fell to around $73,000, and the market began to bet on a 50 basis point rate hike in December. In response, Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that the probability of a 50 basis point hike is low, and a 25 basis point increase remains the baseline scenario. The current decline is more akin to a pricing correction.There are three reasons: The Federal Reserve values the continuity of data, and historically, there are very few cases where a single month's CPI jump has changed the pace of rate hikes; a single month of exceeding expectations is insufficient to overturn the gradual path; the current inflation stickiness mainly stems from the lagged transmission of tariffs and rents, which will naturally diminish, and marginal employment is also weakening. The committee has no reason to impose aggressive tightening at the peak of transmission; the credit spread has widened from 93 basis points to 348 basis points, financial conditions have effectively tightened, and adding another 50 basis points would actively create financial stability risks.In the crypto market, funding rates have turned negative, and the open interest in perpetual contracts has decreased by nearly 20% in a week. The fear and greed index has fallen into the deep fear zone, and the clearing of leverage has been relatively sufficient, limiting the space for further short-term declines. However, an oversold situation does not mean an immediate rebound; confirmation is needed for CPI to fall in the next two months. If inflation exceeds expectations for two consecutive months and a 50 basis point hike is realized, a trend decline will begin, but currently, this scenario seems unlikely.Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.
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