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Trader Murphy (@Murphychen888) posted on the X platform that the realized price for Bitcoin short-term holders (holding period < 3m) is currently about $67,900. Since June 20, BTC has been continuously suppressed after rebounding close to this cost line, and it has been nearly 2 months now. Meanwhile, the slope of this cost curve has approached zero, indicating that the related chip turnover activity continues to decline.Analysis points out that a similar situation occurred at the end of the bear markets in 2018 and 2022, when BTC was suppressed by the < 3m realized price for about 3 consecutive months, followed by severe fluctuations due to the BCH hash war and the FTX incident, respectively. Continuous suppression by this cost line may reflect that the market is in a structurally weak equilibrium state, and any external force could break this weak equilibrium.

According to The Block, a K33 research report states that the 30-day average trading volume of BTC/USDT perpetual contracts on Binance and Bybit has dropped to $10.8 billion, the lowest level since 2023, with only 5% of trading days recording lower volumes. Meanwhile, the average daily trading volume of Bitcoin spot has decreased by 18% from last week to $1.8 billion, and the 7-day volatility has also fallen to 0.6%, the lowest since Christmas 2025.K33 research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that low trading activity creates a self-reinforcing "hibernation cycle" in the market. Notably, the open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains high, with an average of about 300,000 BTC from June to August, above the average for 2025-2026, indicating a higher risk of liquidation-driven volatility.The market is currently awaiting the release of the U.S. July CPI data on Wednesday, with economists expecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% in CPI and a year-on-year increase of 2.5% in core CPI. CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September is about 50%. Bitcoin has been oscillating between $60,000 and $80,000 for six consecutive months, down about 50% from the historical high of October 2025.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a themed live broadcast today at 20:00 titled "Non-Farm Payrolls Surprise Ignites Rate Cut Trading: Which Will Break Through First Among U.S. Stocks, Gold, and BTC?" At that time, crypto KOLs such as Pump Pump Superman, Xiao Zhi, 77, and Grace will be invited to attend, discussing the unexpected changes in non-farm data, the rising expectations for rate cuts in the market, and the interlinked trends of the three major assets: U.S. stocks, gold, and BTC. They will analyze market trading opportunities and potential risks under changes in macro liquidity.

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ stated that data shows the Ethereum Unspent Net Profit and Loss (NUPL) on the Binance platform has fallen back to around -0.35, entering a range that has historically corresponded to significant price bottoms multiple times.This indicator reflects the unrealized profit and loss status of a specific group of holdings, and the current negative value indicates that the overall Ethereum holdings are in a relatively deep unrealized loss.

Economists say that the mixed July employment report released last week has heightened the importance of inflation data. LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach pointed out that the path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes will depend on how long inflation remains elevated.Vanguard analyst Hicklin believes that the July employment report and the expected improvement in inflation will strengthen the Federal Reserve's reasons to hold steady before the end of the year. Recent data releases have bolstered market confidence that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this year.

Analyst Murphy (@Murphychen888) posted that Glassnode's latest metric, the BTC Seller Exhaustion Index, has entered the "extreme exhaustion zone" for the first time in this bear market. This metric comprehensively measures low volatility and high loss conditions.Murphy pointed out that historically, similar signals usually appear at the bottom range of bear markets, but the first trigger does not necessarily correspond to an absolute low; if subsequent prices maintain fluctuations or continue to decline, while the index does not set new lows, the historical certainty of the second signal is usually higher.

Bitfinex's latest report indicates that Bitcoin buying is returning, but the current rebound still mainly relies on improvements in the macroeconomic environment rather than catalysts from the cryptocurrency market itself.

Analyst Murphy stated that the BTC supply concentration has risen to 14.8%, approaching the high-risk zone of 15%. The risk here refers to volatility rather than the direction of price changes; the supply concentration itself does not indicate direction.Murphy noted that based on historical data, a pattern has been observed: when the supply concentration curve begins to turn downward, if the BTC price has been rising beforehand, the probability of continuing to rise afterward is greater; conversely, if it has been falling, the probability of continuing to fall is greater. However, the supply concentration is still on the rise and has not yet turned, so it is currently impossible to determine which direction the probability of movement will be greater after the turn. What can be confirmed is that risk is accumulating and volatility is brewing.

Crypto analyst Murphy stated that the concentration of Bitcoin chips has risen to 14.8%, approaching a historically high-risk area. The concentration of chips itself cannot determine the future direction of BTC prices, but historical data shows that when the curve begins to turn, if BTC prices have risen previously, the probability of continuing to rise is greater; conversely, the probability of continuing to fall is greater.Currently, this indicator is still in an upward phase, so it is temporarily impossible to determine the direction of the next round of fluctuations. However, market data shows that as the concentration of chips continues to increase, potential volatility risks are accumulating, and the BTC market may face larger price changes.

Research institution SemiAnalysis released an analysis stating that SpaceX is expected to build approximately 10GW of AI data center capacity by the end of 2027. If 50% of this is used for inference services, with annual revenue exceeding $10 billion per GW, the annualized revenue could reach $300 billion. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk stated in the first earnings report that a "conservative estimate" suggests an additional 6-8GW will be added in 2027, with the actual figure possibly exceeding 10GW.SemiAnalysis's inference simulator shows that when running on the GB300 cluster at current startup cloud prices (about $3/GPU hour), leading model companies like OpenAI and Anthropic could generate annual inference revenue exceeding $10 billion per GW, with annual costs around $12 billion. Microsoft, with full access to OpenAI models and without bearing training costs, can also capture revenue of the same scale. The analysis points out that Microsoft has signed contracts for 10GW of data centers (total value exceeding $300 billion) since 2026, with a 90-day cancellation clause, significantly reducing signing risks.Regarding SpaceX's construction progress, SemiAnalysis believes Musk will significantly shorten the construction cycle by using onsite gas power generation, bypassing large power transformers, parallel construction, and shortening the debugging process. The Southaven plant in Tennessee expanded from 27 turbines (approximately 495MW) in February to 69 turbines (1.7GW) in July, and the "MiniHard" project can be completed in about 5 months with 450-500MW. However, the 10GW target still faces multiple challenges such as land approvals, gas supply, and equipment delivery. This analysis is based on model simulations, and actual implementation still carries uncertainties.

The four major life insurance companies in Japan (Nippon Life, Dai-ichi Life, Sumitomo Life, Meiji Yasuda) reported a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7% in domestic bond holdings' unrealized losses for the second quarter of 2026, reaching a record $96 billion, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of increase, with total unrealized losses growing by more than twice during this period. Japanese life insurance companies typically hold government bonds and other securities to maturity to match long-term insurance liabilities. In May of this year, the yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds broke 4.0% for the first time since this bond was issued in 1999, raising market concerns that the Kishida government may increase fiscal spending. Analysts point out that if there is a surge in policy cancellations, insurance companies may be forced to sell their holdings prematurely to meet payouts, which would put pressure on their portfolios and earnings. The pressure facing Japanese financial institutions is intensifying.

Analyst Ali posted on platform X that the TD Sequential indicator has recently shown two buy signals on the Ethereum monthly chart, namely "Black 9" and "S13". According to the analysis, over the past four years, ETH monthly TD Sequential signals have often corresponded to trend reversals, including a 236% increase after the buy signal in September 2022 and a 258% increase after the buy signal in April 2025.If this round of signals is validated, it may drive Ethereum to start a new round of upward momentum, with a target around the $3000 level.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that Bitcoin spot ETFs recently recorded the strongest weekly inflow since April of this year, with a net inflow of approximately $1 billion, marking the third-best performance since last October's "Silent IPO" event. Several products, including BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) and Fidelity's Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), have seen inflows for multiple trading days following the Coldcard wallet incident.Eric Balchunas added that while a causal relationship cannot be fully confirmed, the strong correlation between fund flows and the timing of events is "hard to ignore." If it is ultimately proven that the Coldcard incident becomes the starting point for the next Bitcoin rally, it would be somewhat ironic—because attacks on Bitcoin cold storage wallets are typically viewed as one of the worst security incidents, yet market sentiment may shift as a result. Recent ETF fund inflows indicate that institutional investors' demand for Bitcoin allocation is recovering, and the market is reassessing the impact of previous security incidents.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted on the X platform that Bitcoin's current trading price is below the cost basis of short-term holders (STH), which is the average purchase price of Bitcoin held for less than 155 days. As of August 8, 2026, the trading price of Bitcoin is $64,952, while the realized price for short-term holders is $67,523.The spot price is 3.8% lower than this level, with a gap of $2,571, the narrowest since July 21. Over the past 284 days, Bitcoin has closed below the STH realized price for 279 days. This time may not be an exception, as short-term holders will begin to sell to close positions at breakeven.

Cryptocurrency analyst Ai posted on the X platform that multiple technical indicators at the monthly level for Bitcoin are releasing bullish signals, suggesting that the current market may have formed a macro bottom. Data shows that the TD Sequential indicator triggered a buy signal on the Bitcoin monthly chart last month. This indicator previously successfully identified the bottom of the bear market in 2022 and is now showing a similar signal again. Additionally, Bitcoin's current price is close to the 50-month simple moving average (SMA). Historical data indicates that since 2014, this long-term moving average has repeatedly become an important support area for Bitcoin and corresponds with multiple market bottoms.Meanwhile, the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) has fallen back to around -71. The last time this indicator reached a similar level was in June of this year, when Bitcoin's price briefly dropped to $57,000. Historically, extreme low levels of CMO often coincide with market bottom areas. Analysts believe that Bitcoin may still oscillate in the range of $60,000 to $67,000 in the short term, but the TD Sequential buy signal, 50-month moving average support, and CMO oversold condition together indicate that a long-term cycle bottom may have formed. The market will focus on whether subsequent prices can break through the oscillation range to confirm a new upward trend.

Bitcoin's recent volatility has nearly disappeared, but market risks have not been alleviated. Data shows that there has been no outflow of funds from the spot Bitcoin ETF, with a cumulative net inflow of approximately $754 million. However, the price of Bitcoin remains around $64,700, while the options market is focused on downside protection near $62,000 and $63,000.Market signals are showing divergence: on one hand, demand for spot ETFs is rebounding; on the other hand, derivatives traders are positioning themselves for a potential pullback, especially on the eve of the release of the latest U.S. employment data. However, from the overall position structure, the market still leans bullish. Bitcoin call options account for about 60.7% of total open contracts, indicating that investors' long-term expectations remain positive, although recent trading has been more concentrated on short-term risk hedging. Meanwhile, the cost of volatility protection is at a low level. The DVOL index from Deribit, which reflects the expected volatility of Bitcoin over the next 30 days, is currently around 35, a significant drop from the high of 90 earlier this year, indicating that the market believes the likelihood of significant volatility in the short term is limited.However, U.S. macro data could disrupt this balance. The market expects that non-farm payrolls in the U.S. will increase by about 97,500 in July, up from 57,000 in June, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%. If the employment data is stronger than expected, it could push U.S. Treasury yields higher and strengthen expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes; if the data is weak, it could lower yields but also exacerbate concerns about slowing economic growth. Currently, the Bitcoin market shows a pattern of "ETF funds supporting spot, options market guarding against declines," and potential risks in a low-volatility environment still need to be monitored. In a market with low participation and insufficient liquidity, even small changes in supply or demand could lead to significant price fluctuations.

The research organization SemiAnalysis released an analysis indicating that Google DeepMind is no longer among the leading AI laboratories. A week prior, DeepMind co-founder Demis Hassabis stepped back from daily operations, and key members such as Google Chief Scientist Jeff Dean and Gemini co-lead Oriol Vinyals left to establish a new lab called Discovery Loop. The analysis suggests that the long-term struggle within Google over computing power allocation between Gemini and GCP has concluded with GCP emerging victorious.SemiAnalysis stated that Gemini 3.5 Pro has been canceled, and Gemini 3.6 Flash's performance is inferior to that of leading Chinese open-source models and Grok 4.5. Currently, Gemini has fallen to the 8th or 9th position in the large model rankings. Meanwhile, GCP is selling a large number of TPUs to competitors like Anthropic, having secured long-term leasing and sales contracts for hundreds of thousands of TPUs over the past nine months. The Tokenomics model estimates that Gemini's own ARR is about $12 billion, while GCP's third-party AI cloud service revenue is expected to exceed $73 billion by the end of 2027, with TPU system sales contributing an additional over $120 billion. GCP's latest quarterly growth rate is 82%, and it is expected to accelerate to over 100% by 2027 due to TPU system sales, contributing approximately $3 to Google's earnings per share.

The Kobeissi Letter stated that hedge funds net bought $4.8 billion in U.S. stocks last week, marking the second-largest single-week buying scale since 2008. Based on the total market capitalization of the S&P 500, this buying scale ranks 24th in history.During the same period, institutional investors net sold $3.8 billion, ending four consecutive weeks of net buying, with their average net buying scale over the past four weeks dropping to $3.9 billion.Retail investors slightly net sold $200 million during the same period, with their average net buying scale over the past four weeks decreasing to $600 million. Hedge funds are significantly buying U.S. stocks again.

According to Bloomberg, SpaceX's stock performed relatively steadily on Thursday, following the expiration of a lock-up agreement that restricted insiders from selling shares, involving the release of approximately 911.5 million shares, valued at about $100 billion based on current estimates.Trading data shows that SpaceX's stock price fluctuated within a range of less than 3% in the early morning, as the market digested the potential selling pressure from this large-scale share release. In the first 30 minutes after the market opened, the trading volume approached 93 million shares, accounting for about 40% of the total trading volume from the previous trading day.This release occurred shortly after SpaceX's first financial report was published. Previously, due to concerns from investors about the company's investment in artificial intelligence being higher than expected, SpaceX's stock price had dropped by about 14%. However, most Wall Street analysts still maintain a long-term optimistic view of the company.The market's focus includes SpaceX's future investment plans in AI, satellite internet, and mobile communications. Although facing short-term capital expenditure pressures, analysts believe that the company's leading position in rocket launches, the Starlink satellite network, and the commercial space sector remains an important factor supporting its long-term valuation.This stock release, valued at approximately $100 billion, has also become an important event for the market to test investor confidence after SpaceX's listing. The stock price did not experience significant fluctuations, indicating that the market had certain expectations regarding the liquidity release for internal shareholders.