Scan to download
BTC $79,062.48 -2.67%
ETH $2,221.76 -3.08%
BNB $672.84 -0.85%
XRP $1.43 -4.07%
SOL $89.24 -3.40%
TRX $0.3517 -0.47%
DOGE $0.1135 -1.80%
ADA $0.2612 -3.63%
BCH $426.19 -2.36%
LINK $10.07 -4.16%
HYPE $44.14 -0.11%
AAVE $92.85 -5.91%
SUI $1.09 -7.67%
XLM $0.1543 -5.26%
ZEC $516.22 -7.39%
BTC $79,062.48 -2.67%
ETH $2,221.76 -3.08%
BNB $672.84 -0.85%
XRP $1.43 -4.07%
SOL $89.24 -3.40%
TRX $0.3517 -0.47%
DOGE $0.1135 -1.80%
ADA $0.2612 -3.63%
BCH $426.19 -2.36%
LINK $10.07 -4.16%
HYPE $44.14 -0.11%
AAVE $92.85 -5.91%
SUI $1.09 -7.67%
XLM $0.1543 -5.26%
ZEC $516.22 -7.39%

apt

Report: Polymarket may have a broader insider trading issue, with a few wallets capturing most of the profits

The latest report from the non-profit research organization Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) indicates that the prediction market platform Polymarket may have broader insider trading issues than the previously reported "Green Beret Bet on the Venezuela Raid."The research analyzed 435,000 settled markets from January 2021 to mid-March 2026, with a total trading volume of $54.4 billion, and found that low-probability bets related to government decision-making in military and defense markets had abnormally high success rates. Data shows that the average success rate for such "long-shot bets" in political markets is about 14%, while in some cases of military-related contracts, the success rate exceeds 50%. The study suggests that these markets are difficult to predict based solely on public information and are more susceptible to information asymmetry, including insider trading or professional information advantages.The report also points out that Polymarket's profits are highly concentrated. Research from the London Business School and Yale University shows that about 3% of traders contribute to most of the platform's price discovery; blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs found that less than 1% of wallets accounted for about half of the profits. For example, in the case of the U.S. airstrike on Iran in June 2025, just hours before the attack, 19 low-probability bets totaling $164,000 concentrated on buying the ultimately realized "YES" contract, with 8 wallets collectively profiting about $1.8 million, including one wallet that made nearly $500,000.Despite the Pentagon's efforts to conceal the operation through decoy bombers and stealth fighters, a few traders accurately predicted the outcome. ACDC recommends that Polymarket strengthen identity verification, set conditional payments for suspicious bets, limit markets where results are determined by a few individuals, and reduce overly detailed contract designs. The report further calls for a broader discussion on whether the public should be allowed to bet on such events.

Mentis captures the changes in the situation between the U.S. and Israel, and the AI Agent trading enters the "information leading" phase

The AI Agent trading platform Mentis recently detected abnormal fluctuations in information flow and market sentiment signals related to the United States, Israel, and Iran. Subsequently, the situation in the Middle East quickly entered a ceasefire negotiation phase, with multiple geopolitical developments being released, attracting market attention.The platform's trading interface shows that in the early stages of the event's escalation, the Mentis AI Signal had already indicated continuous buying and trend confirmation signals, with the multi-model consensus system (MTS-GPT, MTS-DS, MTS-Q Flash) simultaneously identifying a strengthening market structure. Following this, the BTC price rapidly rose and broke through a key range, validating the market trend with the direction of the AI signals.Trading records indicate that the AI Agent completed automated trade execution and position management after the signal formation, with account profits increasing in tandem with the market rise, demonstrating the forward-looking judgment capability of event-driven signals in the early stages.Mentis stated that its AI Agent continuously tracks cross-market information sources, sentiment changes, and event data, constructing a trading closed loop from information discovery → signal analysis → decision support → automated execution, to enhance response efficiency in sudden macro and geopolitical events.
app_icon
ChainCatcher Building the Web3 world with innovations.