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Goldman Sachs: The Federal Reserve's decision to hold steady in July was absolutely correct, and it should remain open before September

Goldman Sachs analyst Robert Kaplan stated that the Federal Reserve's decision not to raise interest rates in July was "absolutely" correct and urged policymakers to keep an open mind before September, citing the complex factors influencing inflation, and that rigid forward guidance could be counterproductive.Kaplan said, "If I see meaningful improvement, I might be willing to stay put, but I want to make full use of every moment before September to make judgments, avoiding rigidity or preconceived notions." Kaplan believes that the current forces at play include: inflationary pressures from AI development, tariffs, labor constraints, and soaring oil prices; meanwhile, the application of AI works in the opposite direction, accelerating the trend of declining inflation.He stated that Waller should use his speech at this month's Jackson Hole symposium to briefly explain the reasons for the Federal Reserve's inaction in July, rather than delivering a purely "philosophical" speech. Kaplan expressed that his concerns about long-term U.S. Treasury yields are greater than his concerns about the federal funds rate itself.He indicated that the rise in long-term Treasury yields globally reflects a structural supply-demand imbalance driven by persistent large fiscal deficits, rather than Federal Reserve policy.

The AI boom has boosted the enthusiasm for "leveraged stock trading" in Japan, with the scale of retail investors' margin trading doubling in six months, reaching the highest level since 2016

According to the Nikkei News, individual investors in the Japanese stock market are accelerating their use of leverage to bet on AI trends. As of July, the amount of credit trading by individual investors in the Japanese stock market reached 123 trillion yen (approximately 1.09 trillion yuan), doubling since the beginning of the year and reaching the highest level since related statistics began in 2016.Data shows that in June, the scale of credit trading by Japanese individual investors hit a historical high, and in July it continued to maintain a high level. At the same time, the proportion of credit trading in the overall trading amount of individual investors rose to 83%, also setting a new record.AI concept stocks have become the main driving force behind the surge in credit trading, among which the credit buy balance of AI storage concept stock Kioxia reached 13.23 million shares as of August 7, making it one of the popular targets.Benefiting from the recent rise in the Japanese stock market, the overall performance of leveraged investors has been decent. The floating yield of credit trading investors briefly turned positive in June, although it fell back to a loss of 8.4% by the end of July, it is still better than the average loss level of the past 10 years (-10.2%).
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