AI x Crypto Dynamic Research

In this wave of AI, capital is clearly more inclined to pay a premium for segments that have real orders, visible supply bottlenecks, and quantifiable profits, which also puts the Crypto AI narrative under more direct scrutiny regarding the certainty of value realization.

Bernstein downgraded NVIDIA's rating to "in line with the market," cutting the target price in half to $200. Despite the company's strong fundamentals and highly attractive valuation, the firm believes that "there are never just two cockroaches when you find one." Coupled with uncertainties such as the vacancy of a successor, potential government investigations, and changes in supply chain commitments, negative news has not yet reached a bottom, and it advises investors to refrain from bottom-fishing and to remain on the sidelines for now.

A long-time tech veteran who is bearish on AI, Jack Selby, stated that the Anthropic IPO could mark the peak of the AI market, and after the lock-up period expires, it may trigger a chain reaction of corrections. He also pointed out that over 80% of Anthropic's revenue comes from non-recurring income and that high capital expenditures make the claim of a "trillion-dollar valuation" "extremely far-fetched." He further mentioned that if conditions allow, he would "significantly go long on Chinese AI."

Anthropic's IPO will actually become an important opportunity for the public market to test AI business models.

Anthropic plans to raise up to $90.4 billion through an IPO and a concurrent private placement, with a fully diluted valuation of approximately $1.4 trillion, expected to break the record for fundraising by a U.S. tech company at IPO. The company's revenue in the third quarter approached $17 billion, but operating expenses surged to $17.5 billion, returning to a loss.

SoftBank Group's net loss for the second fiscal quarter reached 1.12 trillion yen, marking the first quarterly loss in nearly two years. The main reason was the company's adjustment of power supply equipment procurement for its AI data center in Ohio, leading to a write-off of nearly 3.7 billion dollars in advance payments, while the Vision Fund turned from profit to loss, and high debt financing costs rose. SoftBank's stock price has fallen more than 50% since its peak in June.

From 2014 to 2019, the large number of cryptocurrency concepts were not misdirected, but rather constrained by expensive human judgment, volatile tokens, and high settlement costs; AI model juries, stablecoins, and high-speed public chains are now completing these three pieces of the puzzle.

If Congress uses this opportunity to re-examine NVIDIA's chip sales to China, Jensen Huang's previous lobbying activities, and the decision-making process of the Trump administration in approving related export licenses, things will become much more complicated.

Nomura believes that the "Blue Wave" will slow down the construction of data centers in the United States due to tightened regulations, which will in turn lower global AI chip prices and ease the difficulty for Chinese companies to acquire high-end GPUs and HBM, overall benefiting China's AI economy. Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, emphasizes a more favorable outlook on China's "self-controlled" AI theme, which has dual support from policy supply and demand, rather than relying on export chain targets dependent on global capital expenditure.

Analysis suggests that the contract between SpaceX and Anthropic contains a "90-day mutual exit clause"—once the supply of computing power tightens, Musk can reprice the computing power to 2-3 times the original contract, directly determining the fate of Anthropic and the overall direction of the AI landscape. Furthermore, the risk of the gigawatt-level data center project leaving has sharply increased, and the United States may shift from being a computing power exporting country to a token importing country.