Stock Market Tracker

The probability of Polymarket betting on Stripe's future IPO valuation exceeding $500 billion is as high as 43%.

In the end, the market taught the lesson of respect.

Michael Wilson, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, believes that the internal adjustment of the U.S. stock market, which has lasted for several months, is nearing its end, and investors should prepare to increase their risk exposure. The quality factor has reached a new high, and the divergence in earnings revisions is widening, combined with the compression of cyclical stock valuations, which is signaling a mid-cycle transition. The earnings outlook for the S&P 500 remains strong, and Wilson recommends prioritizing investments in high-quality stocks while paying attention to the capital goods sector, where earnings are improving and valuations are more attractive.

The sell-off of Asian tech stocks continues to escalate, with the South Korea Composite Stock Price Index plunging 7.6% in a single day, reaching a new high in oversold levels since October 2022, and volatility surging sharply. The divergence in performance between South Korea and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index in the United States has widened, and the Taiwan stock market has also begun to weaken. As concerns about AI capital expenditure prospects arise and related long positions become highly crowded, the market fears that panic will spread from South Korea to the entire Asian semiconductor sector, with the Taiwan stock market's decline synchronizing with the downward risks of U.S. semiconductor stocks.

SpaceX's stock price surged nearly 8% on Monday, and Musk's net worth surpassed $1 trillion again, reaching approximately $1.03 trillion, reclaiming the top spot on the billionaire list. Morgan Stanley released a bullish report, setting a target price of $300, indicating that the company's value is underestimated. Multiple catalysts are driving the upward trend, including expectations for Starship recovery, expansion of AI business, and over $12.7 billion in defense contracts.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq opened higher and continued to rise, while the Dow Jones turned to decline early in the session. On Monday, the Nikkei Index closed up 2.4%. The three major Hong Kong stock indices opened lower but rose, with the AI computing hardware supply chain performing well, and the PCB and optical communication sectors leading the gains, while traditional sectors like real estate continued to face pressure. Brent crude oil briefly surged over 1.2% due to rumors of a key oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia being shut down, but turned to decline after reports confirmed normal operations.

Currently, more than half of the Russell 3000 constituents have fallen over 20%, and market breadth has dropped to its lowest since the internet bubble burst, yet the index remains at a high level, with a 12% divergence gap between the two. Morgan Stanley warns that the key to breaking the deadlock lies in the extreme divergence of stock and bond volatility (MOVE breaking 100 while VIX is below 15). If U.S. Treasury volatility does not decrease, the S&P 500 may pull back to 6800 points within the month; if it cools down, individual stocks may catch up.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Department of the Treasury auctioned $13 billion in 20-year bonds, with the winning yield reaching 5.420%, an increase of 21.6 basis points from the previous auction's yield of 5.204% for the same maturity. Bessenet stated that the rise in bond yields is a "global issue" and acknowledged that it also reflects factors such as "the need to address the deficit." JPMorgan stated that for the week ending September 14, client short positions surged by 10 percentage points, neutral positions fell by 8 percentage points, and net long positions dropped to their lowest level in about four months.

Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh appeared in Jackson Hole on Friday, and the FT reported that his communication style is creating a "certainty premium."

Stripe acquires OpenRouter, and what it has bought is not just a model aggregation platform, but also an important entry point for connecting models, developers, and business needs in the AI era. As the number of models increases and corporate AI spending continues to rise, how to make better model choices between cost, speed, and effectiveness is becoming the core of a new round of competition in AI infrastructure.