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According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 2x leveraged long MicroStrategy ETFs ($MSTX, $MSTU) have both fallen about 82% this year; another 2x leveraged product $MSTP has also dropped 81%.During the same period, MicroStrategy ($MSTR) itself has decreased by 46% this year, with a single-week drop of 27% last week. As a result, $MSTX, $MSTU, and $MSTP nearly halved last week.The report points out that the leveraged MicroStrategy ETFs launched in 2024 (both long and short) have seen declines of over 90% since their launch, despite billions of dollars flowing in previously, but the leverage effect is significantly amplifying the losses.Note: Leveraged ETFs typically use a daily reset mechanism, aiming to achieve an integer multiple of the underlying's daily price changes. In highly volatile markets, even if the underlying has an overall increase or decrease over a period, frequent price fluctuations can cause the compounding effect to lead to actual performance deviating from the expected multiple, continuously eroding the net asset value. This is known as "volatility decay" (also referred to as Beta Slippage).

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the predicted market event "LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Mid-Season Invitational Qualifiers" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Both sides kill a dragon" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in win rate, soaring from 50% an hour ago to the current 90% (a fluctuation of 40%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_, the current reading of the Bitcoin UTXO profit and loss ratio model has fallen into a historically low range, indicating that the market is undergoing a deeper internal cleanup.However, the analyst emphasizes that this does not mean the bottom has been confirmed— the 365-day moving average needs to decline further to prove that the market's long-term profit structure has been fully reset, rather than just a short-term oversold reaction. Although a brief rebound may occur due to a short squeeze, it should not be seen as a structural recovery signal if the profit and loss ratio fails to sustain its reconstruction.Overall, signs of internal cleanup in BTC are beginning to emerge, but historical patterns suggest that the market may still need to endure more pressure before fully emerging from this bear market.

According to The Block, influenced by the maturation of the crypto market and the rapid development of emerging technologies, several leading crypto venture capital firms are shifting their investment focus from the pure crypto sector to a broader "frontier technology" track, involving AI, robotics, fintech, and biotechnology.It is reported that Framework Ventures and Haun Ventures have recently raised $400 million and $1 billion funds respectively to support cross-domain layouts; Paradigm is planning to raise up to $1.5 billion for a frontier technology fund; and the former Binance incubator YZi Labs has also ventured into the fields of AI and biotechnology.Industry investors analyze that the core reasons for this strategic shift are the demand for capital deployment brought about by the expansion of fund sizes, the decrease in high-quality pure crypto projects, and the increasing integration of adjacent technologies such as blockchain and AI. Some venture capitalists predict that as cryptocurrencies gradually integrate into a broader technology ecosystem, the exclusive label of "crypto VC" may gradually fade, and the market will ultimately differentiate into large multi-strategy investment funds and a few vertical investors focused on digital assets. However, some institutions like a16z Crypto and Dragonfly still insist on deepening their investment strategies in the pure crypto sector.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua posted that the current Bitcoin trend represents the third wave of decline since the peak of 1011. According to volatility theory and cyclical patterns, this may be the final major drop.Yi Lihua pointed out that the main influencing factors for this round of decline include the performance of the U.S. stock market and Strategy, while closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's response to CPI data to see if it will change interest rate cut or hike expectations, which could trigger a continued pullback in the U.S. stock market. Additionally, black swan or explosive events often occur at the tail end of past bear markets, which have not yet appeared and still require ongoing observation.He believes that based on Bitcoin's peak of $126,000, a 60% drop would bring it down to about $51,000, and a 66% drop would bring it down to about $43,000. Regardless of where the final bottom lies, July and August may be the last bottoming area of this cycle and the most noteworthy time window for bottom fishing in the next three years.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the predicted market Polymarket for the event "Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - European Closed Qualifiers," the win rate of the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Both sides defeat Roshan" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation, soaring from 50% an hour ago to the current 95% (a fluctuation of 45%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

On-chain detective ZachXBT stated that during the migration from the traditional private messaging system to XChat, the X platform encountered multiple technical bugs. At the same time, the reliability of the platform's search function declined, affecting information retrieval efficiency. More importantly, the X platform's algorithm has a "traffic bottleneck" for cryptocurrency content, making it easier for content to be restricted within the cryptocurrency vertical, thereby reducing the ability to reach a broader audience.

According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin unspent transaction output (UTXO) data shows that the proportion of loss transactions to profit transactions in the current market has dropped to the lowest level of this bear market cycle, indicating that investors are entering a clear "surrender" phase.This indicator has previously triggered multiple times at historical cycle bottom areas. The last similar low occurred during the mid-2023 deep phase of the bear market, when the Bitcoin price briefly fell to around $26,000. Analysts believe that such phases usually correspond to extremely low market sentiment, with long-term investors gradually starting to accumulate again.Darkfost pointed out that this is the first time this signal has been triggered since the start of the current correction, indicating that the number of UTXOs sold at a loss is significantly increasing, reflecting a broader sell-off and surrender behavior that has begun. He also added that the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders' Bitcoin is gradually entering negative territory.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, the whale sat0shi777 (0x50b...9f20) opened a long position of 468 BTC at a price of $62,729 on the 24th, worth $29,380,000, and then BTC fell below $60,000;Yesterday morning, after the decline, he shorted 47,500 ETH at a price of $1,536, worth $72,940,000, after which ETH did not continue to decline. Currently, his position worth $102 million is simultaneously at a loss, with a loss of $1.86 million on the BTC long position and a loss of $1.23 million on the ETH short position.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the market prediction event "Dota 2 Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine European Qualifiers" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Both Defeat Roshan" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in win rate, soaring from 50% an hour ago to the current 90% (a fluctuation of 40%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Gate market data, the Dow Jones Index closed down 46.67 points on June 26 (Friday), a decrease of 0.09%, at 51,873.95 points; the S&P 500 Index closed down 4.2 points, a decrease of 0.06%, at 7,353.29 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 60.99 points, a decrease of 0.24%, at 25,297.62 points.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ European Qualifiers" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Both sides defeat Roshan" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in win rate, soaring from 50% an hour ago to the current 90% (a fluctuation of 40%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Crypto KOL Ansem posted a bullish outlook on the SOL/ETH exchange rate for trading. Ansem stated, "The bottom for Solana has been reached, I was the first to say it! Now everyone is extremely pessimistic about SOL, just like when it dropped to $8 in 2023. I think buying SOL at the current price with a holding period of over 6 months is a good deal."

With the current price of Bitcoin at $59,291 and a 200-day dollar-cost averaging (C200) of $75,821, the Bitcoin Ahr999 "bottom-fishing" indicator is currently at 0.285. The previous low this year was 0.27 on February 6.According to statistics, an Ahr999 below 0.3 is a rare case of extreme undervaluation, mainly occurring during significant market crashes or moments of panic. Historically, there have been the following major instances of falling below 0.3:In November 2011, when the price of Bitcoin was only in single digits and had not yet reached widespread consensus;The bottom of the bear market in 2018 (lowest around 0.24);The "March 16 flash crash" in 2020 (COVID panic);In June 2022, during the ETH liquidation crash and the FTX crash in November, it touched around 0.27 multiple times;In February 2026, it reached 0.27-0.29, close to historical lows.It is reported that this indicator assists Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging users in making investment decisions in conjunction with timing strategies. This indicator implies the short-term yield of Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging and the deviation of Bitcoin prices from expected valuations. Historically, the Ahr999 index has been below the bottom line (0.45) for 655 days.

The prediction market infrastructure platform Fortune announced the achievement of another important milestone: its core AI products AI Bot and Sports Agent have officially debuted.It is reported that Fortune AI is positioned as the "AI operating system" for prediction market traders, capable of real-time detection of news dynamics, market sentiment, and arbitrage signals, and performing selective operations through a structured decision-making and execution pipeline, achieving comprehensive intelligence in prediction trading.Previously, Fortune successfully integrated the prediction market liquidity of the Predict.fun platform, significantly enhancing users' trading options and depth. With the launch of the AI Bot automated trading tool, Fortune further refined its "liquidity + intelligence" dual-driven layout. Fortune officials stated that they will always adhere to the user-centric principle and are committed to providing a convenient and efficient one-stop prediction experience for global users.

Renowned analyst PlanB stated that Bitcoin is likely to bottom out only after falling below the realized price (around $53,000), just like what happened in previous bear markets. Currently, the curve representing the realized price has been almost overlapping with the black curve representing the 200-week geometric moving average since 2023.

Uniswap announced on Wednesday the addition of a no-code token auction tool in its web application, allowing any team to configure and launch on-chain token sales directly through the browser without writing code. This tool operates based on Uniswap's Continuous Clearing Auction (CCA) mechanism, where bids accumulate over multiple blocks and settle at a uniform clearing price each time.Bidders set a total budget and a maximum price per token, with everyone paying the same final clearing price. Since the auction spans a time distribution rather than being completed in a single block, it eliminates the speed advantage of bots and last-minute sniping. After the auction ends, liquidity is directly injected into the Uniswap pool, achieving an integrated process for price discovery and trading pair guidance.Previously, Aztec raised $59 million through CCA from 17,000 bidders across 191 countries, with the clearing price exceeding the reserve price by 60%; Cap Labs' auction attracted 1,002 independent bids, with a 5.5 times oversubscription, and a clearing FDV of $106 million.

Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of the Liebit mining pool, stated that the current mNAV of Strategy has fallen to 0.72, close to the low of 0.7 set during the last bear market in May 2022. Based on recent market sentiment events such as the decoupling of STRC, it is judged that we are currently in the bottom area of the mNAV for this cycle. mNAV often leads BTC prices to bottom out by about 6 months, and based on the "four-year cycle" and the decreasing volatility model, this round of Bitcoin bear market may bottom out between October and December 2026, with a target price range of $42,000 to $44,000. Jiang Zhuoer indicated that his recent short-term strategy remains focused on selling spot and shorting, and will switch to buying spot and going long once the expected bottom arrives.

Analyst Murphy stated that there is strong support around $60,000 before and after the expiration of Bitcoin options on June 26, making it difficult to break below that level easily. In the corresponding Gamma chart, the range of $59,000 to $62,000 shows a clear positive Gamma, and the hedging behavior of market makers will suppress volatility, making it easier for the price to be fixed in that area. At the same time, there is a significant accumulation of Put options with a strike price of $60,000, totaling up to 4,620 BTC, forming a strong Put wall that will generate substantial buying power and provide solid support as the price approaches. Historically, when similar options structures have appeared, they often correspond to phase bottoms or the end of pullback stages. Analyst Murphy believes that $60,000 remains a strong support level in the short term and is cautiously optimistic about the short-term market performance.

10x Research released the latest market report indicating that Bitcoin traders have long misunderstood the indicators of "global money supply" and "global liquidity," while the trend of the US dollar is one of the important factors affecting Bitcoin prices. 10x Research pointed out that the US dollar is currently strengthening from multiple dimensions, and historical experience shows that a strong dollar is usually unfavorable for Bitcoin. Its dollar model has only triggered 6 sell signals since 2011, with the last one occurring in November 2025, followed by several months of continuous decline in Bitcoin prices.The report also stated that the global liquidity indicator, which circulated widely in the crypto community last year, was misused by the market. According to its research framework, this indicator issued a buy signal in early March this year and a sell signal at the end of April, and the team has calculated the next possible triggering time window. 10x Research stated that the report combines the trend of the US dollar, global liquidity, and other macro driving factors to analyze the potential time and value ranges for the low point of this bear market, and believes that the time window corresponding to the low point of Bitcoin's current cycle is gradually approaching.