analyst

According to Bloomberg, SK Hynix is expected to issue American Depositary Receipts on Nasdaq on July 10. This listing plan aims to raise nearly $30 billion and is expected to become one of the largest ADR issuances in history. The market generally believes that this move will significantly expand its global investor base and may drive a revaluation.Several asset management companies expect that if its valuation aligns with Micron, there is a 30% upside potential for the stock price in the coming year. A fund manager pointed out that SK Hynix should at least trade at a valuation level comparable to Micron, as demand for memory chips may continue to exceed supply in the coming years. This listing occurs during a rare boom period in the memory chip industry. The stock prices of Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics have all risen over 200% this year, marking the best annual performance in decades. The demand for HBM from AI servers is widely seen as a driving force behind a structural "memory supercycle."

According to Jinshi, Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn stated in a report that the upcoming U.S. PCE data and non-farm payroll report will determine whether the current rise of the dollar has further room to grow.She pointed out that if inflation and labor market data continue to support the narrative that interest rates will remain high for a longer period, the dollar should continue to receive support. Conversely, if price pressures begin to ease more quickly, the market may question whether the current interest rate expectations are too aggressive.

Today, Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang pointed out in an online live broadcast themed "Logic of Gold Trend Analysis" that this week's market focus will be on the U.S. May PCE Price Index and the final value of Q1 GDP.Previously, CPI and PPI data reached new highs, non-farm employment showed robust performance, and signals of inflation rebound combined with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance have led the market to gradually digest rate hike expectations. He emphasized that Waller has clearly stated that controlling inflation is the top priority, and the interest rate dot plot shows that rate hikes in 2026 are becoming an internal consensus, and the market needs to prepare for a higher and longer-lasting interest rate environment.Regarding the gold trend, Lewis Huang stated that due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts driving up energy prices, the overall year-on-year increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index may rise to 3.4% or even higher. If the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rises unexpectedly, the U.S. Dollar Index will gain strong momentum, while non-interest-bearing assets like gold will face weakening risks. He suggests that CFD traders closely monitor inflation expectation differentials and flexibly capture opportunities for U.S. dollar bullishness or guard against gold downturns.

Crypto analyst Lark Davis pointed out that the current reading of the Bitcoin Puell Multiple indicator shows that the market is nearing or is in the bottom area of this cycle. This indicator measures miners' profitability by tracking the ratio of daily miner revenue to the 365-day average. Historically, when miner income remains low and they are forced to sell BTC to cover operating costs, it often corresponds to cycle lows.Davis stated that although the indicator has not yet reached the green oversold zone, signals of pressure on miners have already appeared, which historically usually marks the beginning of the end of a bear market. He also noted that the price signals in this cycle are overall milder compared to historical patterns. Davis believes that whether $59,000 can hold as the low point of this cycle will be revealed in the coming months, but current signs are becoming clearer.

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Charts stated that he is closely monitoring the Bitcoin support level at $64,000. If BTC can hold this support level, $69,000 will become the next upward target.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on the X platform that during this round of pullback, large investors holding more than 1 Bitcoin are taking advantage of the price drop to continue accumulating, with their total BTC holdings rising to a historical high of over 16.8 million, indicating that long-term allocation demand is still increasing and further reflecting the institutionalization trend of Bitcoin assets.Data shows that the holdings of these investors continue to rise, suggesting that market participants are more inclined to allocate assets from a long-term perspective rather than engage in short-term trading. At the retail level, analysis indicates that there are also signs of re-accumulation, but overall, it remains relatively cautious. Currently, retail holdings are approximately 17 million BTC, still below the historical high reached in December 2023. Some retail investors have chosen to take profits during the previous price increase, and some funds may be adjusting their exposure through more convenient channels such as ETFs.The analysis believes that although there are differences in the behavioral rhythms of different investor groups, the overall market is gradually forming a consensus that the current stage is more inclined towards a long-term allocation window, and the trend of funds re-entering the accumulation phase is strengthening.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve unexpectedly shifted to a more aggressive interest rate hike stance, reflecting heightened concerns about persistently high inflation. The latest dot plot shows that 9 officials support raising interest rates this year, with 6 supporting two or more hikes, each by 25 basis points. Compared to March, when no policymakers predicted a rate hike. Waller emphasized the Federal Reserve's determination to combat inflation, and Deutsche Bank's Chief U.S. Economist Matthew Luzetti stated that the risk of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has clearly increased, with financial markets reacting significantly, leading to a sharp decline in the stock market and rising bond yields.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve officials hinted that they may need to raise interest rates soon rather than cut them, especially in the context of rapidly rising inflation. Evercore ISI analyst Krishna Guha stated that a decline in energy prices could provide relief, but the interest rate outlook has decoupled from oil prices, and there remains uncertainty about whether underlying inflation will cool. Claudia Sam, chief economist at New Century Advisors, pointed out that the conditions to prompt the Federal Reserve to respond to supply-driven inflation have not yet emerged, but she acknowledged that the reasons for taking action are accumulating.

According to Jinshi reports, analyst Matthew Weller believes that FOMC Chairman Kevin Walsh's first Federal Reserve meeting is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the "dot plot," and the content of the press conference may significantly reshape the market's expectations for the future path of interest rates. The dollar index DXY 99.5 is seen as a key "watershed," which may determine the technical trend of the dollar this week and in the longer term.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin may have entered a new accumulation zone, but the potential structural bottom of this cycle is still around $48,000. Currently, the seller risk ratio after Bitcoin's adjustment first entered the red zone when it fell below $60,000, indicating that the volume of loss supply has begun to exceed the volume of profit supply, and the unrealized pressure on holders has significantly increased.On the other hand, the Cumulative Value Destruction Day (CVDD) valuation model shows that the structural bottom of Bitcoin's current cycle is around $48,000. Axel Adler Jr. summarized that historically similar zones often correspond to market capitulation phases and bottom formation processes, such as the cycle lows in 2019 and 2023. However, it remains to be seen whether the price can hold the $60,000 area, while the seller risk ratio smooth line continues to rise. Although the price of Bitcoin has rebounded to around $66,000, the market is still at the lower end of the valuation range, and caution is still needed regarding the final confirmation process of the cycle bottom.

Bitcoin has fallen below $65,000, approaching a key short-term support level ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announcement. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 AM Beijing time on June 18, which is the main catalyst for volatility this week. This FOMC meeting is also the first meeting since Kevin Warsh took office as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, so the post-meeting press conference and interest rate results are equally under scrutiny.Trader Killa stated that the FOMC may set the tone for market trends for the remainder of June. He pointed out that BTC is currently forming a bullish narrative around this event, but the outcome is usually priced in by the market before the press conference. Killa noted that if recent history is any guide, FOMC days typically bring more bearish reactions than bullish ones. Killa warned that BTC needs to maintain a bullish market structure from its current position of around $64,000; otherwise, after this turning point, it is highly likely to retest the $60,000 low.Another trader, Niels, mentioned that the FOMC meeting coincides with the nearing conclusion of the US-Iran peace agreement, and BTC may show some strength in the short term, but it could ultimately fall towards $55,000. However, analyst Cryptic Trades offered a more optimistic view, believing that BTC may continue to rebound after the FOMC. He stated that BTC has encountered resistance near a daily bullish support zone formed by two key moving averages, but after this round of correction, the next significant rise is imminent.

According to Jinshi reports, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, but it faces uncertainty in economic trends. The new chairman, Waller, is under close scrutiny regarding how he will lead the Federal Reserve. Despite a strong job market and consumer spending, inflation remains above target levels. Analysts expect Waller to reshape the Federal Reserve's communication and policy decision-making, potentially reducing forward guidance on interest rate expectations and adjusting the frequency of press conferences. The chief economist at Oxford Economics predicts that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in June, but the wording will be adjusted, with a baseline forecast of a rate cut in December.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Bitcoin Sell-Side Risk Ratio (SSRR) entered the red zone for the first time when BTC dropped to $60,000, with the volume of losses exceeding the volume of profits, reflecting the deep pressure on holders. Historically, when this indicator enters the red zone, it often coincides with the formation of a bottom.Meanwhile, the CVDD valuation model shows that the structural bottom is around $48,300, a level that has almost never been closed below in Bitcoin's history. Currently, Bitcoin has rebounded to $66,000, and the smoothed SSRR has begun to turn upward. Analysts believe that $60,000 is a behavioral pressure zone, while $48,000 is the boundary for structural risk. The subsequent confirmation of recovery signals is when the smoothed SSRR exits the red zone and the price stabilizes above $60,000; the main risk is the emergence of new red signals at lower levels and testing the $48,000 support. Overall, the market is gradually shifting towards an accumulation pattern.

According to Cointelegraph, analysts say that the recovery of Bitcoin depends on the success of the US-Iran peace agreement. On-chain data shows that despite a recent rebound, Bitcoin still appears weak. Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG Research, stated that although Bitcoin briefly recovered to $67,000, "momentum remains weak, with declining trading volume and stagnant on-chain indicators suggesting a lack of confidence in the rebound, which may quickly fade." If the US-Iran ceasefire agreement breaks down, Bitcoin will face a "volatile path," potentially gaining buying interest as a hedge asset, only to be pushed towards key support levels by broader risk-averse sentiment.Swissblock stated on Monday that Bitcoin's price momentum and OBV indicator remain in a state of "weak momentum and low participation," both being negative values. The price momentum indicator is at -1, and OBV is at 1.7 million, at a multi-year low. Swissblock pointed out that in a typical bear market, momentum weakens first, followed by a contraction in OBV, leading to a downward price breakout. History shows that stronger recovery signals appear when both turn positive, and until then, "the risk of retesting the lows remains."

According to Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITA) officially took effect last Friday afternoon and is expected to begin trading around this Thursday, with the specific timing possibly being moved up or delayed by a day.

According to analyst Killa's monitoring, this week the BTC range of $67,200 to $68,500 is a key observation area. The current cycle still has several months left, and market fluctuations are a reasonable expectation.

Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost stated on social media that Bitcoin is currently facing one of the most severe U.S. Treasury yield environments since its inception. Although historically, the U.S. federal funds rate and the U.S. dollar index have reached higher levels, the current long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 30-year and 10-year Treasury yields fluctuating between 4.5% and 5%. Coupled with the market's rising expectations for another interest rate hike within the year, this has led to sustained high funding costs and a tightening liquidity environment.Analysis suggests that in a high-yield environment, investors are more inclined to allocate to low-risk fixed-income assets, thereby diminishing the attractiveness of risk assets, including Bitcoin. Historical experience shows that rising U.S. Treasury yields are often accompanied by tightening financial conditions, which puts pressure on Bitcoin's price movements. The current market is at a critical turning point, with the risk premium of risk assets relative to long-term Treasuries being compressed.However, if the macroeconomic outlook becomes clearer in the future, and investors regain confidence in the bond market, capital inflows into the bond market may drive yields down, thereby expanding the risk premium and improving the investment environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. The market generally believes that this process may take several months, and its evolution will largely depend on the development of U.S. government policies and the overall economic situation.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that BlackRock has submitted an 8-A filing for its Bitcoin premium yield ETF BITA. This step usually means a formal launch within a week, and he expects the product to start trading next Thursday.

Crypto analyst Ali Charts posted that Bitcoin is about to break through. Currently, attention is focused on the symmetrical triangle structure forming for BTC, with resistance at $63,000 and support at $61,000. This range will determine the direction of the next move. If BTC effectively closes outside this range on the hourly chart, a price expansion of about 10% may be triggered as momentum is released. It is essential to closely monitor the volume changes near the boundaries of this range to capture early signals of a sustained breakout.

According to Mike McGlone, Chief Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg, Bitcoin has significantly led risk assets in previous upward cycles, and this leading relationship may be reversing in the current phase. In his latest comments, he stated that Bitcoin has previously "driven risk assets upward," but now "may also drive them downward," and believes that based on its comparison chart with the S&P 500 scaled up by 10 times, the overall β assets may enter a downward year in 2026.He emphasized that since 2009, the annual total return of the S&P 500 has only declined in 2018 and 2022, both of which coincided with Bitcoin's downward cycles and corresponded to the U.S. midterm election cycles. He believes the difference in the current market is that structural pressures are accumulating: inflation has re-emerged as a core political issue, while stock market volatility has remained low for an extended period, but risk indicators for commodities like gold and oil have continued to rise. This combination of "low volatility stocks + high-risk commodities" is historically rare.Additionally, McGlone stated that since 2026, both Bitcoin and gold have shown signs of "mean reversion," which may indicate that the risk asset cycle is entering a repricing phase. He pointed out that Bitcoin and gold have retraced about 50% from their 2025 peak (around $126,000), while the total return index for U.S. Treasuries may be forming a phase bottom from a low area not seen since 1983.Currently, the market still lacks key confirmation signals: specifically, the S&P 500 to GDP ratio has fallen from near its highest level since 1928. If this indicator begins to turn, it may signify that a broader risk asset cycle is entering a structural adjustment.