analyst

According to Cointelegraph, multiple analysts have pointed out that Ethereum faces downside risks, with ETH potentially dropping another 20% to the $1,700 range. The increase in holdings on trading platforms and the decline in ETF demand are the main sources of pressure.CryptoQuant analyst BorisD noted that from May 5 to May 9, the ETH reserves on Binance surged from 3.36 million to 3.84 million, while the price dropped 7% from $2,390 to $2,260 during the same period. He stated, "This indicates that liquidity is being absorbed and distributed simultaneously. The overall structure still points to dominant downside risks."Another analyst, PelinayPA, shares the same view, believing that any short-term rebound will "be accompanied by high volatility, followed by a continuation of a broader downward trend," and added, "A large amount of ETH continues to flow into trading platforms, creating significant resistance to price increases." The net inflow of ETH to trading platforms surged to 585,000, marking the largest single-day inflow since December 2025—at that time, the ETH price was around $3,000, which subsequently dropped to $1,750 in February this year, a decline of 42%. Such large-scale inflows typically indicate that large holders are offloading.Meanwhile, the demand for spot Ethereum ETFs continues to weaken, recording net outflows for four consecutive days, with a total outflow amounting to $190 million. From a technical perspective, the ETH daily chart shows that the ascending wedge pattern has broken below the support level of $2,280. If the daily closing price confirms a break below, the target will point to the wedge measurement target of $1,725, a 22% drop from the current price, aligning with the macro low on February 6 of this year.Analyst ShangoTrades stated that this breakdown "is starting to become concerning." From a longer-term perspective, analyst CryptoBullGod pointed out that the measurement target for the ETH weekly bear flag pattern is $1,280.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart stated on the X platform that the 2x leveraged Cerebras Systems ETF (ticker: CBRG) has officially begun trading, while its underlying asset CBRS only started trading the previous afternoon, meaning that the launch of the leveraged ETF was completed just hours apart, setting a record for the rapid product launch pace.This "fast-follow" ETF issuance model is accelerating, and in the future, leveraged ETFs around non-public or high-demand assets such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI may also emerge with similar rapid replication issuance paths, reflecting a significant increase in the productization speed of the ETF market for new asset exposures.

Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that since March of this year, the Bitcoin spot ETF $IBIT has significantly outperformed the gold ETF $GLD, leading by 33 percentage points.In terms of capital, $IBIT saw a net inflow of $4.2 billion during this period, while $GLD experienced a net outflow of $9 billion, resulting in a total capital flow difference of up to $13 billion between the two.

According to The Block, the Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) under the crypto asset management company 21Shares was officially listed on Tuesday, with a trading volume of $1.8 million on its first day. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart commented that it was "very robust, far better than the typical ETF first-day performance."It is reported that THYP is the first ETF product that tracks the Hyperliquid (HYPE) spot, allowing investors to gain exposure to HYPE tokens without directly holding the tokens. 21Shares stated that it plans to stake its held HYPE assets in the future. Additionally, Bitwise and Grayscale are also applying for HYPE-related ETF products.

According to Cointelegraph, analyst ArabxChain stated that since the beginning of May, more than 3 million ETH have been withdrawn from Binance, which may reduce the pressure of spot selling.

The Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator from CryptoQuant has recently turned green for the first time since 2023. On-chain analyst Julio Moreno stated that this usually indicates the market is switching from a bear market structure to a recovery phase. Moreno pointed out that historically, when this indicator exits the bear market zone and enters the "Early Bull" range, it often means that the worst adjustment phase has ended and the market structure begins to repair. However, several analysts emphasize that this indicator is more suitable for judging market phase transitions rather than precise trading signals. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, stated that the greatest significance of such indicators lies in determining "whether Bitcoin has stopped behaving like a bear market asset," and real confirmation still requires sustained demand, improved liquidity, and prices stabilizing at key levels. Currently, Bitcoin has not effectively broken through the $82,000 resistance level. Although it has rebounded about 35% from a low of around $60,000 in February this year, the market remains in a tug-of-war state. Moreno believes that to truly confirm a bull market signal, Bitcoin needs to digest some current "weakness" indicators while facing pressure from a neutral greed-fear index and a complex macro environment. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Bitcoin has completed a phase of bottoming around $60,000 this year. He stated that once it breaks through $90,000, the market may enter an "explosive phase," targeting the previous high of $126,000. Meanwhile, some analysts also remind that on-chain indicators like MVRV and NUPL are essentially more aligned with a "behavioral cycle framework" and should not be seen as absolute predictive tools.

According to Jinshi reports, Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist of Yardeni Research, expects the S&P 500 index to rise above 8,000 points.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas revealed in a post on X platform that the prediction market ETF has not been launched as originally planned, possibly due to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) deciding to further review the related products. Currently, the delay "is not a fatal issue," but rather seems like the regulatory agency wants to conduct additional checks on the disclosure documents.He pointed out that these products are groundbreaking, and once approved for listing, they will set an important regulatory precedent for prediction market ETFs. Therefore, it is understandable that the SEC wants to spend more time reviewing, and the market is still waiting for further developments.

According to Cointelegraph, analyst Yashu Gola stated that the ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen over 35% in the past year, and the current trend is repeating the bearish structure from 2024 to 2025, suggesting there may still be further downside potential.From a technical perspective, ETH/BTC has been constrained by a downward trend line since 2022, with several previous breakout attempts failing, one of which triggered a subsequent decline of nearly 70%. In August 2025, after testing the trend line again, ETH/BTC encountered resistance and fell below the 20-month EMA support around 0.034, indicating that bears still dominate the trend. If weakness persists, the next key downside target is around 0.0176 BTC, which represents about a 40% drop from current levels, corresponding to the 2020 cycle low area.On-chain data shows that the selling pressure risk for ETH is also rising. CryptoQuant data indicates that as of today, ETH reserves on the Binance platform have risen to 3.62 million, accounting for about 24.6% of all trading platform ETH reserves; meanwhile, BTC reserves on Binance have continued to decline during the same period. Generally, an increase in trading platform reserves indicates a greater supply of tokens available for sale, while a decrease in reserves reflects an enhanced trend of long-term holding.Analysts believe this further reinforces the fundamental divergence between ETH and BTC: ETH faces higher circulating supply pressure, while BTC benefits from tightening exchange liquidity and continued institutional accumulation. Meanwhile, the narrative of Ethereum as "ultrasound money" has weakened, while BTC continues to receive corporate buying support, including from Strategy, as well as backing from Wall Street funds.

According to analyst Tom Wan's monitoring, despite LayerZero issuing an apology statement, several protocols with a total TVL of approximately $2 billion have announced their migration to Chainlink CCIP, including KelpDAO ($1.5 billion), SolvProtocol ($600 million), and re ($200 million).Meanwhile, the top assets still using the LayerZero OFT standard include: USDe/sUSDe (Ethena), weETH (Etherfi), USDT0 (Tether), thBILL (Theo), and WBTC (Bitgo), with specific migration progress to be determined by project announcements.Previously, LayerZero formally apologized for poor communication regarding security incidents over the past three weeks. The official acknowledged that its internal RPC was attacked by the Lazarus Group and admitted to mistakenly allowing LayerZero Labs DVN to act as a 1/1 verification node for high-value transactions, leading to a single point of risk.

According to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency analyst Matthew Hyland stated that Bitcoin may have bottomed out around $60,000 in early February, and it is unlikely to see lower prices later this year.He pointed out that dozens of bottom signals appeared simultaneously when Bitcoin reached $60,000 in the first quarter of 2026, while these signals do not appear in the middle of a bull market. Hyland believes that the current market is not in the middle of a bear market, and this judgment has obvious flaws because bottom signals only flash at true bottoms.Previously, veteran trader Peter Brandt believed that $60,000 might not be the lowest point in 2026, while Willy Woo stated that Bitcoin has only completed about one-third of its bear market journey.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost tweeted that the Bitcoin market is still dominated by the futures market, with the recent bullish momentum mainly coming from investors gradually returning to the derivatives market. Although the funding rate has remained negative for several weeks, the open interest in Bitcoin has recorded its largest increase since 2026, surpassing the increase during the historical peak period of 2025.Darkfost pointed out that while this reflects a slow return of market optimism, it has also led to a more fragile market structure, where high leverage positions can easily amplify volatility and liquidation risks.

CryptoQuant analysts stated, "93,000 dollars is a key upward target for Bitcoin. The CME gap is not a guarantee, but a signal. They represent areas where positions, liquidity, and market psychology converge, making them key reference points for future price movements."

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost tweeted that Bitcoin has risen over 36% since the low on February 6. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's dominance has also increased, surpassing 61.3%, returning to the high since November 2025, indicating that funds are still highly concentrated in Bitcoin.In contrast, altcoins are still under pressure but have shown early signs of stabilization. TOTAL3 (the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH) has increased by about 15% during the same period. Among the altcoins listed on Binance, 11.7% have returned above the 200-day moving average (only 2.3% on February 6), breaking the downward trend since October 2025.Additionally, the trading volume of altcoins on Binance has risen from 31% to 49% of the total trading volume of BTC and ETH, indicating that investor interest is slowly returning.

According to FinanceFeeds, analysts pointed out that Ethereum (ETH) has recently rebounded from the support level of $2200, which coincides with the resistance level before the end of March, the lower band of the daily Bollinger Bands, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward impulse wave i. The current price is approaching the key resistance level of $2470 (which is the endpoint of the previous upward impulse wave i).The report noted that, given the active wave (iii) and the strong momentum of wave 3, as well as the overall bullish sentiment in the crypto market, if ETH breaks through the $2470 resistance level, it is expected to rise to the next resistance level of $2600.

According to on-chain analyst Specter, the attacker of the Wasabi protocol has transferred all stolen funds into Tornado Cash, completing a centralized mixing operation of approximately $5.9 million in assets.On-chain analysis shows that this attacker and a suspected North Korean-related hacker organization (DPRK) have recently continued to use Tornado Cash to launder stolen funds, including those from KelpDAO and LayerZero, exhibiting a multi-stage complex flow of funds.A typical money laundering path includes: funds first entering the Wasabi Mixer for initial mixing and withdrawal, then cross-chain flowing back to Ethereum, re-entering Tornado Cash for deep mixing, withdrawing to a new wallet, and dispersing to multiple addresses. New tokens are deployed in the new wallets, liquidity is guided to buy and extract liquidity assets, and then cross-chain to the Tron (USDT) system, where funds briefly stay before flowing to OTC-related wallets. On-chain security analysis indicates that this model has become a high-frequency attack money laundering template recently, presenting a combination structure of "mixing + cross-chain + tokenization + OTC exit."Industry security personnel remind that such attacks have shifted from simple theft to systematic engineered money laundering paths, significantly increasing the difficulty of tracking.

Crypto analyst Murphy stated that BTC is filling the gap left in its chip structure since 2024, with the recent chip concentration zone located around $78,000, where approximately 423,000 BTC have changed hands, indicating significant capital entering to form support.He pointed out that the trading volume in the $79,000 to $80,000 range has noticeably decreased, possibly due to proximity to integer levels and resistance, with some capital choosing to wait and see. There remains an unfilled chip gap in the $81,000 to $82,000 range, and it is expected that the price will oscillate and consolidate in this range before challenging higher areas once the chips have fully changed hands.Murphy emphasized that the chip concentration in the $83,000 to $84,000 range mainly stems from Coinbase organizing wallets and does not constitute real resistance. If BTC stabilizes above $82,000, the real pressure above will come from the chip concentration zone above $87,000.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on the X platform, stating that the adjusted realized price range model calibrated to Bitcoin's current circulating supply shows that this round of Bitcoin falling to the key range of $59,000 marks the beginning of a true medium to long-term bottoming process. Bottoming is not a short-term process and will not be completed in one to two weeks; the baseline scenario is expected to take about six months.Axel Adler Jr emphasized that although Bitcoin has seen some recent increases, the core factor driving market stabilization is not emotional recovery or local rebounds, but rather the return of long-term real demand. This means that the bottom may only be truly established when the market begins to reprice future value and spot buying continues to recover.

MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe stated that Bitcoin may not need a new story or catalyst to drive it back to $100,000—Bitcoin has not reached that price for nearly five months. In a post on X on Friday, van de Poppe posed the question, "What kind of narrative can push Bitcoin to $100,000?" He then stated, "No narrative is needed to push the price." He added, "Prices rise, and narratives will emerge. That’s why relying solely on math, statistics, and logic is enough to win, and why the current ranges of Bitcoin are still good accumulation zones."Many participants in the crypto market still believe that Bitcoin needs a strong narrative to drive prices upward. Recently, the market's focus has been on potential catalysts such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, regulatory progress in the U.S., and inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Some participants also pointed to the potential passage of the CLARITY Act as a factor that could drive Bitcoin upward. However, veteran trader Peter Brandt stated that the CLARITY Act is a positive step for the industry but is unlikely to be the main catalyst for pushing Bitcoin prices higher. Brandt said, "Is this a macro development that shakes the world? No. It's certainly necessary, but it is not an event that should redefine value." Meanwhile, White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt stated this week at the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas that a "major announcement" regarding President Trump's Bitcoin reserves will be made in a few weeks.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez stated that as May begins, Bitcoin is still oscillating within a narrow range, while order clusters at key price levels are forming, which may become the core area for large-scale liquidations.Upper resistance: $80,000. This position serves as a major psychological and technical resistance, gathering a large amount of short liquidity. If broken, it may trigger a short squeeze, pushing the price quickly up to $84,000. Lower support: If $80,000 fails to break, the lower liquidity range includes $75,000, $73,000, and $70,000, which may support a pullback. He pointed out that the current market is in a tug-of-war phase between bulls and bears, and if the price effectively breaks through the $75,000 to $80,000 range on a daily basis, it may determine the overall trend for the month.