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Trader Murphy (@Murphychen888) posted on the X platform that the realized price for Bitcoin short-term holders (holding period < 3m) is currently about $67,900. Since June 20, BTC has been continuously suppressed after rebounding close to this cost line, and it has been nearly 2 months now. Meanwhile, the slope of this cost curve has approached zero, indicating that the related chip turnover activity continues to decline.Analysis points out that a similar situation occurred at the end of the bear markets in 2018 and 2022, when BTC was suppressed by the < 3m realized price for about 3 consecutive months, followed by severe fluctuations due to the BCH hash war and the FTX incident, respectively. Continuous suppression by this cost line may reflect that the market is in a structurally weak equilibrium state, and any external force could break this weak equilibrium.

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ stated that data shows the Ethereum Unspent Net Profit and Loss (NUPL) on the Binance platform has fallen back to around -0.35, entering a range that has historically corresponded to significant price bottoms multiple times.This indicator reflects the unrealized profit and loss status of a specific group of holdings, and the current negative value indicates that the overall Ethereum holdings are in a relatively deep unrealized loss.

Economists say that the mixed July employment report released last week has heightened the importance of inflation data. LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach pointed out that the path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes will depend on how long inflation remains elevated.Vanguard analyst Hicklin believes that the July employment report and the expected improvement in inflation will strengthen the Federal Reserve's reasons to hold steady before the end of the year. Recent data releases have bolstered market confidence that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this year.

Analyst Murphy (@Murphychen888) posted that Glassnode's latest metric, the BTC Seller Exhaustion Index, has entered the "extreme exhaustion zone" for the first time in this bear market. This metric comprehensively measures low volatility and high loss conditions.Murphy pointed out that historically, similar signals usually appear at the bottom range of bear markets, but the first trigger does not necessarily correspond to an absolute low; if subsequent prices maintain fluctuations or continue to decline, while the index does not set new lows, the historical certainty of the second signal is usually higher.

Crypto analyst Murphy stated that the concentration of Bitcoin chips has risen to 14.8%, approaching a historically high-risk area. The concentration of chips itself cannot determine the future direction of BTC prices, but historical data shows that when the curve begins to turn, if BTC prices have risen previously, the probability of continuing to rise is greater; conversely, the probability of continuing to fall is greater.Currently, this indicator is still in an upward phase, so it is temporarily impossible to determine the direction of the next round of fluctuations. However, market data shows that as the concentration of chips continues to increase, potential volatility risks are accumulating, and the BTC market may face larger price changes.

Analyst Ali posted on platform X that the TD Sequential indicator has recently shown two buy signals on the Ethereum monthly chart, namely "Black 9" and "S13". According to the analysis, over the past four years, ETH monthly TD Sequential signals have often corresponded to trend reversals, including a 236% increase after the buy signal in September 2022 and a 258% increase after the buy signal in April 2025.If this round of signals is validated, it may drive Ethereum to start a new round of upward momentum, with a target around the $3000 level.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that Bitcoin spot ETFs recently recorded the strongest weekly inflow since April of this year, with a net inflow of approximately $1 billion, marking the third-best performance since last October's "Silent IPO" event. Several products, including BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) and Fidelity's Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), have seen inflows for multiple trading days following the Coldcard wallet incident.Eric Balchunas added that while a causal relationship cannot be fully confirmed, the strong correlation between fund flows and the timing of events is "hard to ignore." If it is ultimately proven that the Coldcard incident becomes the starting point for the next Bitcoin rally, it would be somewhat ironic—because attacks on Bitcoin cold storage wallets are typically viewed as one of the worst security incidents, yet market sentiment may shift as a result. Recent ETF fund inflows indicate that institutional investors' demand for Bitcoin allocation is recovering, and the market is reassessing the impact of previous security incidents.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted on the X platform that Bitcoin's current trading price is below the cost basis of short-term holders (STH), which is the average purchase price of Bitcoin held for less than 155 days. As of August 8, 2026, the trading price of Bitcoin is $64,952, while the realized price for short-term holders is $67,523.The spot price is 3.8% lower than this level, with a gap of $2,571, the narrowest since July 21. Over the past 284 days, Bitcoin has closed below the STH realized price for 279 days. This time may not be an exception, as short-term holders will begin to sell to close positions at breakeven.

Cryptocurrency analyst Ai posted on the X platform that multiple technical indicators at the monthly level for Bitcoin are releasing bullish signals, suggesting that the current market may have formed a macro bottom. Data shows that the TD Sequential indicator triggered a buy signal on the Bitcoin monthly chart last month. This indicator previously successfully identified the bottom of the bear market in 2022 and is now showing a similar signal again. Additionally, Bitcoin's current price is close to the 50-month simple moving average (SMA). Historical data indicates that since 2014, this long-term moving average has repeatedly become an important support area for Bitcoin and corresponds with multiple market bottoms.Meanwhile, the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) has fallen back to around -71. The last time this indicator reached a similar level was in June of this year, when Bitcoin's price briefly dropped to $57,000. Historically, extreme low levels of CMO often coincide with market bottom areas. Analysts believe that Bitcoin may still oscillate in the range of $60,000 to $67,000 in the short term, but the TD Sequential buy signal, 50-month moving average support, and CMO oversold condition together indicate that a long-term cycle bottom may have formed. The market will focus on whether subsequent prices can break through the oscillation range to confirm a new upward trend.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's implied volatility on the 30th fell to a long-term support level of 36%, with the price maintaining a narrow range below $65,000. Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, reminded that a low-volatility environment will lower trading costs, thereby encouraging traders to establish large directional bets and hedge positions; once the market breaks through key price levels, the passive hedging behavior of market makers will amplify market fluctuations, driving a mean-reversion rebound in volatility.On the market sentiment front, Paul-Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, stated that the current demand for put options has significantly cooled, but there is also a lack of buying interest for call options. Glassnode summarized this state as "there is neither capital to buy into the rise nor capital to buy into the fall," believing that this phenomenon often represents the market nearing a cyclical bottom. The divergence in the trends of Dogecoin and Bitcoin also indirectly reflects the continued low speculative sentiment.Howard believes that favorable regulatory advances like the Clarity Act, which drive institutional ETF capital inflows, may become an important catalyst for the next round of market movements; while the failure of negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz and inflation exceeding expectations pose major downside risks.

CryptoQuant analyst Abramchart stated that Bitcoin recorded one of the largest inflows of funds in history, with over 38,000 Bitcoins transferred to wallets typically associated with long-term holders and over-the-counter settlements. This seems to be good news. However, when combining this data with the actual prices of accumulation addresses, the situation becomes more complex. The average cost of these accumulation wallets is currently around $70,000, while Bitcoin's trading price is close to $64,000.This creates two possible scenarios: Bullish: Whales are actively accumulating in hopes of profiting in the next round of price increases. A situation worth noting: Some purchases may be aimed at lowering the average entry price so that when Bitcoin returns to the $70,000 range, they can exit at a price close to cost. In other words, today's accumulation does not necessarily mean long-term holding. It may also represent a strategic layout before reaching the breakeven point. Abramchart believes that the inflow of funds is undoubtedly substantial and worth close attention, but the $70,000 transaction price may become an important decision point. Whether these funds continue to accumulate or begin to diversify investments around this price level will provide clearer signals for the next major trend.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on the X platform, stating that the current Bitcoin (BTC) supply profitability ratio is about 52%, which means that nearly half of Bitcoin holdings are still in a state of loss, and the market is approaching a key turning point in the bear market cycle.The analysis points out that historically, during each bear market, the Bitcoin profitability supply ratio eventually falls below 50%, entering a phase where "loss-making chips dominate." This usually indicates further market pressure release and becomes an important signal in the later stages of a bear market. Data shows that in June and July of this year, the Bitcoin supply profitability ratio briefly fell below 50%, but overall it has remained near the critical level. Analysts believe this indicates that the current bear market cycle has entered a deeper stage.The analysis states that regardless of where the final market bottom price is, the Bitcoin market may currently be entering the final stage of the bear market. However, the supply profitability ratio only reflects the on-chain holding cost structure and cannot independently determine the market bottom; subsequent observations still need to combine indicators such as capital flow, macro environment, and market sentiment.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Novaque Research, the Federal Reserve voted 9 to 3 on July 29 to maintain the interest rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. However, maintaining the interest rate is different from cutting rates and did not bring new liquidity stimulus, and Bitcoin's internal demand indicators reflect this constraint.Novaque stated that the Coinbase premium index continues to be deeply negative, close to -0.11, indicating that Bitcoin's pricing on Coinbase is weaker than on offshore platforms, pointing to sluggish spot demand in the U.S.; total open interest remains below the 100-day moving average, and CME options exposure has significantly contracted from the peak in the first quarter; exchange reserves have rebounded from the April low to about 2.72 million BTC, indicating an increase in supply that can be sold at any time. It believes that against the backdrop of weak demand in the U.S., simply pausing interest rate hikes can only prevent further tightening and cannot create a favorable environment for price increases, and Bitcoin prices will remain under pressure in the short term.

According to technology analyst Ed Zitron, citing estimates from institutions such as Barclays, UBS, and Wells Fargo, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, the three major cloud providers, may see over 70% of their AI revenue coming from OpenAI and Anthropic. Specifically, Barclays analyst Ross Sandler estimates that about 73% of Amazon AWS's AI revenue in 2026 will come from these two companies; UBS analyst Stephen Ju estimates that approximately 28% of Google Cloud's revenue in 2026 and over 48% in 2027 will come from them; Wells Fargo estimates that about 23% of Microsoft Azure's revenue in FY2026 and about 35% in FY2027 will come from these two AI labs.The analysis indicates that AWS's AI revenue in 2026, excluding OpenAI/Anthropic, is expected to be only about 8.5 billion dollars, while Amazon's capital expenditure for that year is expected to reach 220 billion dollars. Google's Vertex AI platform revenue in 2026 is expected to be about 28.3 billion dollars, but during the same period, the computing power expenditure for OpenAI and Anthropic is expected to exceed 35.6 billion dollars. Microsoft's AI revenue in FY2026 is about 34.5 billion dollars, with capital expenditure during the same period of about 115.9 billion dollars. This analysis has raised market concerns about the overbuilding of AI data centers and the sustainability of demand, questioning whether the three major cloud providers should disclose customer revenue concentration risks more transparently. Currently, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have not publicly responded to this.

Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang pointed out in a live broadcast that this week's market focus has shifted from tech stock earnings reports back to U.S. employment data and Fed policy expectations.The key to this non-farm report is not just the number of new jobs added, but whether the unemployment rate, average hourly wage, and previous values' revisions collectively indicate a "orderly cooling" or "significant slowdown" in the labor market.Lewis Huang stated that if non-farm employment and wage data are both stronger than expected, the market will lower short-term rate cut bets, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are expected to strengthen, while gold and high-valuation tech stocks will face pressure; conversely, if employment, wages, and previous values' revisions all weaken, the market will raise expectations for Fed easing, and gold and non-U.S. currencies may receive support.He advised CFD traders to avoid chasing orders in the first minute after data is released, and to focus on observing whether the U.S. two-year Treasury yield, the dollar index, and gold form a synchronized confirmation, and to wait for a pullback opportunity after a key price level breakout. The current trading focus is not simply betting on the data's highs and lows, but rather judging how the non-farm report will change the market's pricing of the Fed's policy path.

According to The Block, Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered the Public Utility Commission (PUCT) and the grid operator ERCOT to conduct audits on all data center projects in the queue within the state this week. ERCOT subsequently suspended the "Batch Zero" large electricity approval process, which was scheduled to announce results this month.Currently, data center applications account for about 90% of the 474 GW interconnected queue of ERCOT.Bernstein analysts noted in a client report released on Tuesday that this regulatory review will suppress speculative development and compress the supply of new electricity capacity, thereby enhancing the scarcity value of approved electricity capacity, benefiting existing Bitcoin mining companies and AI operators.The report specifically mentioned that Cipher Digital (CIFR), CleanSpark (CLSK), and Core Scientific (CORZ) are significantly affected by the audit, as their recent expansion plans rely on access to the Texas grid; while Terawulf (WULF) has a stronger risk resistance due to its power assets being distributed across multiple states, including Kentucky, Maryland, and New York; Riot Platforms (RIOT) and IREN benefit from already having large-scale approved operating assets in ERCOT.

Crypto analyst Crypto Dan posted on the X platform that Bitcoin is currently in a severely undervalued range. From a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin is close to historical bottom positions. Although it is still uncertain whether this is the absolute bottom, the indicator shows that the current level of interest from market participants in the crypto market is comparable to that at past bottoms.Crypto Dan stated that looking ahead to the next upward cycle around 2027, the current level is undoubtedly in a cheap range.

According to Jinshi reports, on Monday, the dollar continued its downward trend due to joint intervention in the foreign exchange market by the U.S. and Japan, which supported the yen. Francesco Pesole, a foreign exchange strategist at ING, stated that the market's doubts about the new Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh's ability to combat inflation are the root cause of the dollar's weakness. He pointed out that many traders are considering establishing long-term short positions on the dollar, but believe that Japan's intervention is only a temporary measure, and the true determinant of the dollar's trend will still be the Federal Reserve's policy.Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar stated that the pressure for interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve will continue to increase.

CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto stated that the current percentage of unrealized losses for Bitcoin is 35.2%, which means that approximately 35% of the tracked supply is in a state of unrealized loss. This indicator is still above 20%, but has now fallen below the deep pressure range of 40%, far below the similar capitulation drop zone of 60%.This indicator broke through 40% around the end of June, reaching 42.2%, then dropped to 30.4% around July 21, and subsequently rebounded to 35.2%. In previous major bear market phases shown in the chart, after the first test of the 40% area, there is usually a period of pressure consolidation, after which the indicator tends to approach or exceed 60%, often leading to a capitulation-like drop. Zizcrypto believes that the current supply of unrealized losses is still high, but the latest data has fallen below the deep pressure range and has not yet reached capitulation-level pressure. However, levels above 40% and 60% remain key areas to watch.

According to Jinshi News, the recent sharp rise of the yen has triggered a sell-off in the Japanese stock market on Monday, but analysts believe that the risk to corporate earnings is manageable. A survey by the Bank of Japan shows that the weighted average exchange rate assumption for the dollar against the yen adopted by companies is 151.49, and the current yen to dollar exchange rate is still about 5 yen away from this level.Yugo Tsuboi, Chief Strategist at Daiwa Securities, stated that unless the yen/dollar appreciates further to near the 150 level, the risk of downward adjustments to corporate earnings should be very small.