Analyst: Ethereum faces downside risk, may drop 20% to $1700

According to Cointelegraph, multiple analysts have pointed out that Ethereum faces downside risks, with ETH potentially dropping another 20% to the $1,700 range. The increase in holdings on trading platforms and the decline in ETF demand are the main sources of pressure.

CryptoQuant analyst BorisD noted that from May 5 to May 9, the ETH reserves on Binance surged from 3.36 million to 3.84 million, while the price dropped 7% from $2,390 to $2,260 during the same period. He stated, "This indicates that liquidity is being absorbed and distributed simultaneously. The overall structure still points to dominant downside risks."

Another analyst, PelinayPA, shares the same view, believing that any short-term rebound will "be accompanied by high volatility, followed by a continuation of a broader downward trend," and added, "A large amount of ETH continues to flow into trading platforms, creating significant resistance to price increases." The net inflow of ETH to trading platforms surged to 585,000, marking the largest single-day inflow since December 2025—at that time, the ETH price was around $3,000, which subsequently dropped to $1,750 in February this year, a decline of 42%. Such large-scale inflows typically indicate that large holders are offloading.

Meanwhile, the demand for spot Ethereum ETFs continues to weaken, recording net outflows for four consecutive days, with a total outflow amounting to $190 million. From a technical perspective, the ETH daily chart shows that the ascending wedge pattern has broken below the support level of $2,280. If the daily closing price confirms a break below, the target will point to the wedge measurement target of $1,725, a 22% drop from the current price, aligning with the macro low on February 6 of this year.

Analyst ShangoTrades stated that this breakdown "is starting to become concerning." From a longer-term perspective, analyst CryptoBullGod pointed out that the measurement target for the ETH weekly bear flag pattern is $1,280.