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The founder of Bridgewater Associates discusses decision-making in the AI era: principled thinking should run parallel with AI, and human insights remain irreplaceable

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, recently published a lengthy article sharing his thoughts on the investment decision-making system in the AI era, emphasizing that human insights still hold irreplaceable value in financial markets.Dalio believes that investing is essentially a "value-added near-zero-sum" competitive environment. When certain information becomes widely recognized, its investment value often declines rapidly. Therefore, even the most advanced AI systems are insufficient for investors to rely on completely or to follow blindly; the true competitive advantage still lies in unique human understanding and deep insights.Drawing on Bridgewater's 50 years of development experience, Dalio suggests that decision-making should be based on a clear, understandable, and verifiable principle system. He states that principled thinking does not rely on intuition or experiential judgment, but rather systematizes decision-making standards by analyzing contexts and causal relationships, recording core principles, and utilizing historical data for verification, ultimately transforming them into computable and automatically executable decision systems.He also points out that the formation of principles cannot solely depend on data mining or directly asking AI, but must be based on logical reasoning and an understanding of the operational laws of the real world.Dalio describes this process as a "collaborative game" between humans and AI. In this model, AI provides systematic suggestions based on established principles, while humans engage in independent thinking according to their own principle framework. Both parties continuously optimize the decision-making system through comparison, discussion, and logical verification.He believes that truly valuable principles should transcend time and geography, enduring scrutiny across different historical cycles and market environments. If a principle fails, it is necessary to re-examine the underlying causal relationships and continuously revise it.Dalio states that he has already applied this method in his family office to fully leverage the new generation of AI technology and plans to continue sharing related methodologies with the outside world. He also reminds market participants that as AI technology continues to evolve, the ability to effectively combine artificial intelligence with principled thinking may become an important watershed for future competitiveness.

Bridgewater founder: $39 trillion in debt could trigger a crisis, Wall Street bets funds will shift from gold to Bitcoin

According to Forbes, Bitcoin bulls have added a macro narrative. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that the $39 trillion debt crisis in the U.S. could lead to a long-term devaluation or even collapse of the dollar, while JPMorgan analysts believe that the market is witnessing a rotation from gold to Bitcoin in the currency devaluation trade.Dalio stated that the current annual spending in the U.S. is about $7 trillion, with revenues of only about $5 trillion, and the long-term fiscal deficit and debt expansion are nearing historically dangerous levels. He believes that during similar periods, fiat currencies tend to depreciate continuously, while gold benefits.Meanwhile, JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out that as the conflict in Iran escalates, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has continued to exceed that of gold ETFs, with some funds viewing Bitcoin as digital gold and a hedge against dollar devaluation.The report mentioned that since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the price of Bitcoin has risen by about 30%, although it is still below the historical high of $126,000 in 2025. Notable investors, including Stanley Druckenmiller and Elon Musk, have also expressed concerns about the long-term status of the dollar as a reserve currency.
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