trends

According to Jinshi, Tim Graf, Managing Director and Head of EMEA Macro Strategy at State Street, stated that global stock markets have continued to rise over the past few days, but the momentum is currently showing signs of fatigue. He pointed out that the stock market is still supported, and if there are factors that trigger a pullback, it may be the movements in the interest rate market and the expectation that inflation will remain above the target levels of many central banks, forcing central banks to tighten policies.

According to QCP Capital analysis, BTC is currently consolidating around $82,000, close to the 200-day moving average, with $80,000 support holding steady, but the $84,000 resistance above has not yet been broken. The core CPI for April year-on-year is 2.8%, slightly above expectations, mainly driven by housing costs (owner's equivalent rent), while core goods inflation remains sluggish, and the transmission of tariffs has not yet fully spread.Core services (excluding housing) inflation has accelerated for three consecutive months, combined with China's PPI turning positive for the first time in 41 months, the global commodity deflation dividend may be fading, and the threshold for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has been raised further. The market is currently focused on three major catalysts: the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing (involving trade, rare earths, and Middle East issues), the release of PPI data, and the Senate Banking Committee's review process of the CLARITY cryptocurrency regulatory bill. Before these catalysts materialize, spot prices may continue to fluctuate within a range, with volatility remaining low.

The metal market is experiencing increased volatility, with a divergence in the trends of gold and silver. According to data from the Gate platform, silver (XAG) reached a high of $81.72 in the past 24 hours and is currently reported at $80.90, with a 24-hour increase of approximately 0.37%; gold (XAU) reached a high of $4,733.70 in the past 24 hours and is currently reported at $4,687.53, with prices retreating from their peak.According to CoinGlass data, the performance of metal contract positions on the Gate platform is impressive. Specifically, the 24-hour contract position for silver (XAG) is approximately $68.93 million, ranking among the top globally; the 24-hour contract position for gold (XAU) is approximately $88.82 million, also ranking among the industry leaders. As market volatility expands, funds continue to flow into the precious metals sector, further driving the growth of platform positions.Gate has pioneered the metal contract trading sector, offering 24/7 uninterrupted trading to provide users with greater strategic flexibility and asset management efficiency during volatile market conditions. Gate contracts cover various traditional financial assets, including stocks, metals, foreign exchange, indices, and commodities, supporting trading in core assets such as gold, silver, and globally popular stocks. Gate continues to build a more efficient and professional multi-asset one-stop trading platform for global users.

The global stock market has reached a milestone moment. According to data from the Gate platform, NAS100 (Nasdaq 100 Index) strongly refreshed its intraday historical high yesterday, reaching a maximum of $28,817.49; US30 (Dow Jones 30 Index) broke the 50,000-point mark for the first time, peaking at 50,116.03 points. Although the subsequent gains narrowed, the two indices closed at 28,637.55 points and 49,679.17 points respectively, but the new highs of these two core indices have significantly boosted market sentiment, establishing a premium space for a new round of market rally.Gate has launched the world's first perpetual contracts for indices, with 15 trading pairs now available in the contract area, providing the most comprehensive global mainstream stock indices and volatility indices, fully supporting USDT settlement and 24/7 continuous trading. With a well-established layout in the fields of crypto assets, metals, indices, commodities, foreign exchange, and popular stocks, Gate continues to offer global users a one-stop, multi-scenario asset allocation choice, further enhancing the platform's competitiveness and brand influence in the global comprehensive trading market.

Bitcoin approached the critical 200-day simple moving average (SMA, around $83,300) on Wednesday but failed to achieve a valid breakout, subsequently falling back below $81,000.Meanwhile, the overall cryptocurrency market weakened, with the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Index dropping over 2% in the past 24 hours, making it the weakest performer among major sectors. The market generally views the 200-day moving average as an important indicator for measuring long-term trends. If BTC can hold above this level, it will further reinforce the market narrative that "the bear market ended when it fell below $63,000 in February this year, and a new bull market has begun." However, a similar situation occurred in March 2022, when Bitcoin briefly broke through and tested the 200-day moving average, only to eventually fall to around $20,000 in June of the same year, leading some analysts to warn of the risk of a "false breakout."Analytical firm Marex stated that whether BTC can continue to rise depends on three major factors: whether spot funds continue to chase prices, whether exchange supply continues to tighten, and whether the derivatives market remains healthy and not overheated. If all three factors align, Bitcoin may quickly open up space towards the $85,000 range.FxPro Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich pointed out that this round of correction seems more like a brief pause in the upward process rather than the end of the trend. However, he also reminded that the daily RSI had previously entered the overbought zone, and similar past situations were accompanied by significant corrections. Additionally, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has fallen from a high of 4.46% at the beginning of the month to 4.32%, which is seen as a potential positive factor for risk assets.

According to Gate market data, the three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed trends, with the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq both turning down, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 0.77%.

As a CEX platform connecting to Polymarket, Gate's data shows a significant divergence in market expectations regarding the prediction event "Will silver (SI) reach the target price by the end of June?" The probability of reaching $65 by the end of June is 61%, while the probability of being below $60 is 48%. Against the backdrop of macro uncertainty and fluctuations in the metal market, the market's judgment on the price path of metals is becoming cautious, and the long-short game continues to heat up. Meanwhile, according to CoinGlass data, the 24-hour trading volume of silver (XAG) contracts on the Gate platform reached $112 million, ranking among the top globally.In addition, Gate Polymarket has completed a new round of functional upgrades and launched the "Upgrade Experience, Enjoy Up to 5,000 USDT Compensation Benefits" campaign simultaneously. During the event, new users can enjoy up to 100 USDT compensation on their first order, while existing users can receive up to 5,000 USDT in compensation, with a reward pool of 10,000 USDT for the earnings leaderboard. In the trend of accelerating integration between prediction markets and derivatives trading, Gate continues to enrich trading scenarios and strengthen platform liquidity and user participation experience.

Kryptanium Capital co-founder Daniel Yan posted on social media that in April, there was a significant divergence between the VIX and Brent crude oil futures, thanks to the resilience of the S&P 500 index. This is a fat-tail risk, and the volatility shock shook the global macro markets twice at the end of January and the end of February. It would not be surprising to see a third shock soon.

According to Gate market data, the three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed trends, with the Nasdaq index rising over 1%, the S&P 500 index increasing by 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.3%.

Glassnode tweeted that the whales on Hyperliquid have been anticipating a price breakthrough in this range. Over the past two months, their confidence and long positions have continued to increase, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among large perpetual contract traders.

According to CoinGlass data, Brent crude oil (XBR) has a 24-hour contract trading volume of 16.5 million USD across the network, with a contract open interest of 6.2258 million USD; among them, the Gate platform has a 24-hour contract trading volume of 15 million USD, ranking first in the world; the contract open interest is 2.67 million USD, ranking second in the world. WTI crude oil (XTI) has a 24-hour contract trading volume of 20.6188 million USD across the network, with a contract open interest of 22.8109 million USD.Among them, the Gate platform has a 24-hour contract trading volume of 13.08 million USD, ranking first in the world; the open interest reaches 4.75 million USD, ranking second in the world.In the metals sector, the 24-hour trading volume of XAG contracts across the network reaches 900 million USD, among which the Gate platform's XAUT/USDT contract open interest records 72.3609 million USD, ranking third in the world.Currently, Gate has fully deepened its TradFi layout, with the spot sector supporting stock and metal trading, and the contract sector covering diversified assets such as gold, silver, foreign exchange, indices, and commodities. With a flexible USDT settlement mechanism and up to 100 times leverage, Gate continues to assist global investors in achieving cross-market, round-the-clock asset allocation and risk management.

Dr. Han, the founder and CEO of Gate, has been invited to give a keynote speech at the main campus of the University of Hong Kong on the evening of April 21, and to participate in a fireside chat and open Q&A session.The event is titled "Web3 Dialogues @ HKU - Academia x Industry," supported by the School of Computing and Data Science at HKU in collaboration with the HKU Innovation and Entrepreneurship Centre and the Core Curriculum Office, and organized by Blockchain@HKU. It is primarily open to students interested in Web3, blockchain, digital finance, and emerging technologies. As a collaborative academic event, such activities are rare at HKU.The event will focus on core topics such as the evolution of Web3 technology, the integration of AI and digital assets, and industry regulatory trends, exploring these issues in depth from both academic research and industry practice perspectives. In addition to the keynote speech, Dr. Han will engage in a fireside chat with HKU professors and discuss topics such as industry development paths, technological transformation, and career planning with the attending students.As Web3 and artificial intelligence technologies continue to intersect, the interaction between academia and industry is becoming an important aspect of talent development and cognitive renewal. Such exchanges not only provide students with opportunities to gain firsthand industry experience but also help expand their understanding of technological application scenarios and future career directions, further promoting the connection between academia and industry.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Williams stated that the underlying inflation trends show mixed signals.

According to official social media news, the decentralized contract trading platform Sun Wukong will hold a live broadcast today at 19:00 (UTC+8) themed "Hong Kong Web3 Carnival: What Kind of Market Are We Looking Forward to in 2026?" At that time, KOLs in the crypto space such as Alice, Mike Banana, Metamental | Beyond the Realm, MMK, and Web3 He Yi (sophia) will attend to discuss the trends in the crypto market for 2026 surrounding the upcoming Hong Kong Web3 Carnival.

According to Cointelegraph, Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau and cryptocurrency market analyst, stated that Bitcoin's current recovery is relatively weak. The geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures caused by the Middle East war will dominate the market trends in the second quarter of 2026, with interest rate cuts expected no earlier than the third or fourth quarter. He pointed out that for BTC to reach $90,000, three conditions must be met: easing geopolitical tensions, oil prices falling back to around $80, and weakening economic data.Currently, BTC is priced at approximately $71,276, facing resistance at $74,000, and still operating below the 200-day exponential moving average. Previously, BTC rose above $73,000 on April 6 but fell back due to the breakdown of U.S.-Iran negotiations and Trump's announcement to block the Strait of Hormuz. There are internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve FOMC regarding interest rate cuts in 2026, and CME Fedwatch data shows that the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the meetings on April 29 and June 17 is over 98%.

Former Goldman Sachs executive, author of "Global Macro Investor," and co-founder and CEO of Real Vision Raoul Pal stated on social media, "The ETH/BTC exchange rate has become very interesting now, consistent with the trends of the business cycle (ISM rising) and increasing liquidity. From a long-term chart perspective, the trend remains very constructive. Since 2017, ETH has largely maintained its value relative to BTC; if this chart continues to develop along the current trend, ETH should outperform BTC over time.This is also intuitively reasonable: as a smart contract platform, ETH's total addressable market (TAM) is fundamentally different from the 'store of value' property of BTC. BTC primarily carries the total savings value, while ETH can carry the value of economic activity itself. Because of this difference, the dominance of smart contracts relative to BTC will continue to rise over time."

In the options market, implied volatility has slightly retreated, and the curve maintains a moderate positive spread. Downside hedging demand still exists but has not reached extreme levels, and geopolitical premiums continue to be reflected in volatility pricing.Currently, BTC has neither fully followed the high beta logic of the stock market nor formed stable safe-haven demand. Market trends are still primarily driven by news, and a trending market is yet to form until macro or geopolitical situations become clearer.