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BTC $78,232.14 -1.06%
ETH $2,180.96 -1.70%
BNB $656.54 -2.35%
XRP $1.41 -1.40%
SOL $86.51 -2.96%
TRX $0.3546 +0.85%
DOGE $0.1099 -2.74%
ADA $0.2545 -2.49%
BCH $417.28 -1.76%
LINK $9.74 -3.08%
HYPE $41.81 -4.91%
AAVE $90.29 -2.64%
SUI $1.06 -2.40%
XLM $0.1516 -1.67%
ZEC $510.88 -1.44%

sonne

Next week's macro outlook: Focus on US-Iran negotiations and changes in the Federal Reserve personnel, with the Middle East situation repeatedly disturbing the market

According to Jinshi reports, global markets significantly rebounded over the past week driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, but core uncertainties remain unresolved. Iran once announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rapid decline in oil prices, a broad strengthening of risk assets, U.S. stocks reaching new highs, a weakening dollar, and gold approaching the $4900 mark. However, Iran subsequently signaled that it "is still under military control," combined with the U.S. maintaining sanctions against Iran, which has heightened market concerns about the volatility of the situation.On the macro level, the biggest variable next week will still be the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations. U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations may advance over the weekend and warned that if an agreement is not reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire could end, and there is a risk of renewed conflict; meanwhile, Iran's attitude towards negotiations remains cautious, especially with significant differences on key issues such as uranium enrichment. The market has currently shifted from "pricing in conflict escalation" to "pricing in a path to easing," but any sudden changes could still trigger sharp asset fluctuations.In terms of interest rate expectations, the decline in energy prices has alleviated inflationary pressures, and the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year have risen to about 60%. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will attend a Senate hearing next week, and his policy stance (especially whether it leans dovish) will become an important variable affecting gold and risk assets.On Tuesday at 20:30, U.S. March retail sales month-on-month;On Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18;On Thursday at 21:45, U.S. April S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI preliminary;On Friday at 22:00, U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value, one-year inflation expectations final value;In the short term, the market's main focus will revolve around three major variables: progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, oil price trends, and signals from the Federal Reserve.

Trump signals personnel changes at the Federal Reserve: Bitcoin's rally faces disruption, market reassesses interest rate cut expectations for 2026

According to Forbes, as Bitcoin prices approach $100,000 in early 2026, U.S. President Trump’s latest remarks regarding the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair have been viewed by the market as a potential "turning point" for prices.Recently, Trump publicly stated at the White House that, despite widespread expectations that White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett would succeed current Chair Powell, he "prefers to keep Hassett in his current position," calling a reassignment "a serious concern." This statement quickly dampened market bets on Hassett becoming the Federal Reserve Chair.As a result, the probability of Hassett's election on the prediction market Polymarket has significantly declined, while the probability of his main competitor, former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, winning has risen to nearly 60%. Market analysis indicates that Hassett is viewed as a more dovish candidate, and if he were to become the Federal Reserve Chair, it could be more favorable for interest rate cut expectations in 2026, thereby supporting Bitcoin and risk asset performance.In contrast, Warsh's stance is relatively hawkish, suggesting that a high-interest rate environment may persist longer, posing short-term pressure on crypto assets. Although Warsh has previously invested in crypto companies and served as an advisor to institutional-grade crypto bank Anchorage, analysts believe that his monetary policy stance is not as accommodative as Hassett's. Nansen's Chief Research Analyst Aurelie Barthere pointed out that Hassett "originally had a higher level of support for the crypto market."
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