sentiment

According to 10x Research analysis, since mid-January, the total gamma exposure of Bitcoin has remained negative, currently reaching -3.2 billion dollars at the strike price of 82,000 dollars. In a negative gamma environment, market makers are forced to trade in the direction of the trend, accelerating buying during price increases and accelerating selling during price decreases, which exacerbates price volatility.As the options expiration on May 29 and June 26 approaches, the negative gamma suppression effect is expected to gradually dissipate, and the downward bias of Bitcoin will subsequently ease. Currently, the market demand for call options is significantly higher than for put options, and institutions expect that market sentiment will shift from bearish to bullish at that time.

Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark this week, following a five-day streak of net inflows into spot ETFs, as the market's rebound momentum from February's lows showed signs of cooling. The U.S. April non-farm payroll data added 115,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 62,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. Although the overall data was relatively strong, it did not significantly alleviate market concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty; instead, it reinforced expectations that "energy-driven inflation limits the space for interest rate cuts."In terms of capital flow, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $277 million on Thursday, ending a previous cumulative inflow of $1.69 billion; the Ethereum ETF also recorded a net outflow of $104 million on the same day, indicating a short-term cooling of institutional risk appetite. On the geopolitical front, tensions between Iran and the U.S. have escalated again, prompting the market to reprice the risks in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rebound in oil prices, which partially offset the support that previous risk assets received from the decline in oil prices.The derivatives market shows a more long-term hawkish outlook, with interest rate futures pricing in over a 50% probability of rate hikes beyond 2027, suggesting that the easing cycle may be delayed until 2028. On-chain data indicates that the current rise in Bitcoin is primarily driven by institutional spot buying and short covering, with retail participation remaining relatively low, and funding rates maintaining a moderate level, resulting in a weak market momentum structure. Analysts believe that if retail funds do not return, BTC may still face the risk of testing the support range of $75,000 to $78,000.

Glassnode analysis indicates that Bitcoin has broken through key resistance, rising to $82,000 - $83,000, ending several weeks of narrow fluctuations, and market volatility has returned.Options data shows that the short-term 1-week implied volatility has rebounded by about 6 points, while long-term volatility remains moderate, and short-term trading demand has quickly recovered. In terms of sentiment and positioning, the 25 delta skew is converging towards neutral, with reduced demand for downside hedging; short-term outlook is slightly bearish, while long-term has turned bullish, with upward expectations being repriced. Structurally, implied volatility exceeds realized volatility, and the VRP has turned positive; there is a concentration zone of about $2 billion in "short gamma" around $82,000, which may amplify volatility. Over the past 24 hours, the proportion of call options sold is 81%, indicating that the market tends to consolidate.

On-chain data platform Glassnode shows that Bitcoin whales' net long positions on Hyperliquid have risen to a new high for 2026. The data indicates that whales have been continuously increasing their long positions recently, continuing the trend of going long after last month's Bitcoin price breakout. Currently, the total positions of whales on the platform are approximately $3.5 billion, with longs slightly outnumbering shorts.Analysis suggests that the movements of Hyperliquid whales are often seen as a market sentiment indicator; the current overall liquidation scale is relatively low and mainly concentrated in short positions, reflecting a bullish market atmosphere.

As Bitcoin strongly breaks through the $80,000 mark, the current funding rates on mainstream CEX and DEX show that market short-selling sentiment has significantly weakened, as shown in the attached image.The funding rate is a fee set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain the balance between the contract price and the underlying asset price, typically applicable to perpetual contracts. It is a mechanism for the exchange of funds between long and short traders, and the trading platform does not charge this fee; it is used to adjust the cost or profit of traders holding contracts to keep the contract price close to the underlying asset price. When the funding rate is 0.01%, it indicates the benchmark rate. When the funding rate is greater than 0.01%, it represents a generally bullish market. When the funding rate is less than 0.005%, it represents a generally bearish market.

According to Jinshi reports, Andrew Slimon, a senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, stated that investors should prepare for a pullback in the U.S. stock market and act decisively when fear reaches its peak.He believes that the current strong corporate earnings are colliding with accumulated risks, and the stock market, especially the "Tech Seven Giants," has risen significantly, increasing the risk of further price increases. Slimon advises investors to remain patient, stating that now is not the best time to deploy new capital, but he still maintains a constructive outlook in the long term.

Bitcoin fell below $76,000 after failing to break through $80,000, with uncertainties surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the macroeconomic situation unsettling the market.Meanwhile, technical indicators and on-chain data provide mixed signals regarding whether BTC can sustain this round of rebound. Bitcoin recorded a 30% recovery after hitting a low below $60,000 on February 6, but it stalled under selling pressure in the supply zone between $78,000 and $80,000. This range also coincides with the current 20-week exponential moving average (EMA), reinforcing the significance of this resistance level.Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, stated that the current pullback is "typical behavior" ahead of the FOMC meeting. He added, "I believe we are still in a phase of strong market conditions." On the support side, Bitcoin has tested the support level at $75,500, which also serves as the lower boundary of the 20-day EMA, 100-day EMA, and an upward channel.Glassnode's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data shows that direct resistance is around $78,000, where investors hold 335,650 BTC; the average purchase price of about 298,560 BTC is $75,500, forming a key support level.On the on-chain front, Glassnode data indicates that the Bitcoin market exhibits "a coexistence of bullish momentum and cautious sentiment." The spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) rose from $18.3 million to $54.8 million, with an increase of nearly 200% over the past week, reflecting strong bullish sentiment among market participants. However, spot trading volume decreased by 13.8% from $6.95 billion a week ago to $5.99 billion, "indicating a reduction in market activity." During the same period, the number of daily active addresses fell by 1.6%, showing a more subdued network participation.

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QCP Group analysis indicates that the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have once again broken down, the ceasefire in the Middle East continues, and the overall geopolitical landscape remains static. A shooting incident occurred at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, with Trump suspected to be the target. After the Asian market opened, BTC briefly surpassed $79,000 and ETH broke through $2,400, but concerns arose following news of the Iranian foreign minister's visit to Russia for talks with Putin, leading to a rapid pullback in gains.The current key resistance level in the market is the CME gap around $82,000. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts continues to be negative, and if the price breaks upward, it may trigger short covering. Implied volatility continues to decline, and the risk reversal skew has narrowed, with market interest in upward exposure gradually increasing. Key focus this week: April 29 earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, as well as the FOMC interest rate decision; April 30 earnings report from Apple, U.S. Q1 GDP, and March PCE data.

Glassnode tweeted that the whales on Hyperliquid have been anticipating a price breakthrough in this range. Over the past two months, their confidence and long positions have continued to increase, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among large perpetual contract traders.

The head of the ETF business at BNY Mellon stated that Bitcoin ETF fund flows have turned into net inflows this year, returning to positive territory overall. Bloomberg data shows that fund flows for all periods of spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned positive for the first time in months.Although there were outflows previously due to low coin prices and macro uncertainties, the scale was relatively limited. As of now, 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net inflow of approximately $335 million in a single day, with a monthly cumulative inflow exceeding $2.1 billion, and a year-to-date net inflow of about $1.8 billion. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT is the largest contributor, with an inflow of about $246 million in the past day and a monthly inflow reaching $1.9 billion; meanwhile, Grayscale's GBTC still recorded some outflows.

According to Jinshi reports, the S&P 500 index has shown signs of turning upward, and market sentiment has improved.

According to Jinshi reports, the Nasdaq 100 index has turned positive, indicating a slight recovery in market sentiment.

According to Jinshi reports, the S&P 500 index has turned down, and market sentiment has weakened.

Despite Bitcoin rising to $76,300 at one point this week, market sentiment remains low, with the Fear and Greed Index still in the "extreme fear" range at 21, indicating a clear divergence between price and sentiment. Institutional views suggest that this round of increases is more akin to "valuation repair" rather than a trend reversal. QCP Capital referred to it as a "relief rally," as macro-level inflation, energy, and policy pressures have not fully dissipated.Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin is still about 5% lower than the key resistance level of the "real market average" at approximately $78,100, and the current rebound has limited depth. The funding structure is also showing divergence. Spot demand and ETF fund flows have warmed up, but profit-taking has increased, and institutional participation remains cautious, with the derivatives market continuing to lean towards downward hedging. Exchange data also shows that demand is more from offshore and retail funds rather than dominated by U.S. institutions. Analysts state that around $75,000 has become a key support/validation level. If subsequent buying cannot sustain, the price may retreat to the range of $70,000 to $71,000.On the macro front, U.S. stocks continue to hit new highs, and oil prices remain high but have not surged further, which has warmed market risk appetite but still carries uncertainty. The market's focus is shifting towards the Federal Reserve's policy path, and the overall environment still poses constraints on crypto assets. In summary, while Bitcoin maintains its rebound, it oscillates near resistance levels, and the market tone remains cautious, with no consistent bullish trend formed yet.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been positive for 9 consecutive days, currently reported at 0.0117%. The buying sentiment in the U.S. market continues to warm up, after being in negative premium for 15 consecutive days.ChainCatcher Note: The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is used to measure the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase (a mainstream trading platform in the U.S.) and the global market average price. This index is an important indicator for observing capital flows in the U.S. market, institutional investment enthusiasm, and changes in market sentiment.A positive premium indicates that the Coinbase price is higher than the global average price, which usually means: strong buying in the U.S. market, active entry of institutional or compliant funds, ample dollar liquidity, and optimistic investment sentiment. A negative premium indicates that the Coinbase price is lower than the global average price, which typically reflects: significant selling pressure in the U.S. market, decreased risk appetite among investors, rising market risk aversion, or capital outflows.

According to Jinshi reports, the S&P 500 index has turned down, indicating a weakening market sentiment.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been positive for 8 consecutive days, currently reported at 0.0401%. The buying sentiment in the U.S. market continues to warm up, after previously being in negative premium for 15 consecutive days.The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is used to measure the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase (a mainstream trading platform in the U.S.) and the global market average price. This index is an important indicator for observing the flow of funds in the U.S. market, the enthusiasm of institutional investors, and changes in market sentiment. A positive premium indicates that the Coinbase price is higher than the global average price, which usually means: strong buying in the U.S. market, active entry of institutional or compliant funds, ample dollar liquidity, and optimistic investment sentiment. A negative premium indicates that the Coinbase price is lower than the global average price, which typically reflects: significant selling pressure in the U.S. market, a decline in investors' risk appetite, an increase in market risk aversion, or capital outflow.

According to Cointelegraph, after a recent rebound, Ethereum's price has stabilized above $2,300, with ETH futures open interest increasing to $25.4 billion, indicating a rise in demand for leveraged positions.Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETFs listed in the U.S. have seen a net inflow of $248 million over the past 10 days, and Bitmine Immersion has also disclosed the purchase of $312 million worth of ETH. However, the funding rate for ETH perpetual contracts has failed to remain above 5% and has repeatedly fallen below 0, reflecting limited market confidence in this round of increases. Additionally, Ethereum's weekly DApp revenue has dropped from $24 million in early February to $11 million, and weakened network activity along with intensified competition among public chains may continue to affect ETH's trend.

glassnode published its weekly market outlook, indicating that Bitcoin's price momentum has increased by 51.7%, breaking through previous highs, reflecting a significant enhancement in spot buying power and a strengthening of market buying support.On the other hand, Bitcoin's futures open interest continues to rise, and the options Delta skew shows a moderation of bearish sentiment. Combined with a cooling of on-chain activity, this suggests that the market is currently in a consolidation phase but with improved sentiment. glassnode stated that from a profitability perspective, market pressure has eased. Overall, various indicators collectively suggest that the market is exhibiting strong bullish sentiment, increased investor participation, and enhanced risk appetite, although there are also signs of cautious sentiment and market stabilization.