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DeGods founder Frank: Anthropic's prospectus cannot hide the investment risks in AI

The founder and trader of the NFT project DeGods, Frank, posted on X that although Anthropic's latest S-1 shows strong revenue growth, it cannot be concluded that the resistance to AI investment has disappeared. He stated that the second quarter of 2026 will be a peak for companies to purchase and consume AI Tokens in large quantities, and the market will only begin to pay attention to AI spending management by July; the rise in model homogeneity and the narrowing of output differences may intensify competition and compress profit margins, a trend that has not yet fully manifested in the second quarter.Frank also mentioned that there is still a lack of clear evidence proving that AI can create more profits for most companies, and Anthropic's large enterprise clients are also under pressure to improve their profit margins, which may lead to cuts in spending related to Claude in the future. Large tech companies and AI labs have signed capital expenditure commitments extending to 2034, and related expectations may have already been factored into stock prices; if companies improve the efficiency of existing chips to reduce costs or issue more shares to raise additional capital expenditure, it could put pressure on the valuations of related stocks. He expressed a long-term optimistic view on AI and may participate significantly in the Anthropic IPO, but believes that the ultimate winners in the industry have yet to be determined, and real investment opportunities may only emerge after the current market cycle ends.

first_img Morgan Stanley: The adjustment of chip stocks has entered its final stage, with a year-end target of 8000 points for the S&P 500

Morgan Stanley's Chief Equity Strategist Mike Wilson stated that despite the cooling enthusiasm for artificial intelligence trading and recent pressure on U.S. stocks, he maintains his forecast for the S&P 500 index to close at 8000 points by the end of the year. Morgan Stanley has set a tactical downside target for the S&P 500 at 7100 to 7200 points, slightly below the 200-day moving average, while the basic year-end target remains at 8000 points. Wilson noted that several upcoming clearing events, including the midterm elections, should mark the end of the current stock market adjustment.Wilson is relatively cautious about the semiconductor sector, believing that support levels may be significantly lower than current levels, but selling pressure may ease next month. The strategy team stated that as the market questions the timing and scale of revenue realization related to artificial intelligence, the semiconductor and other capital expenditure beneficiary sectors have become the epicenter of financing concerns; there are new doubts about the cost of capital for some participants and whether the credit market can provide sufficient funds to support related expenditures, as governments and non-AI-related capital expenditures are also competing for funds. The team indicated that given the possibility of more financing plans in the future, it is normal for the market to focus on the supply side, but this concern will persist until financing is completed.The five-year credit default swaps of the highly leveraged new cloud service provider CoreWeave closed above 1100 basis points last week, implying a default probability of about 50% on its debt within five years. Wilson's team believes that the adjustment in the semiconductor sector has entered its final stage, expecting this round of adjustment to end by mid-November; however, based on technical analysis and comparisons with the once-hot silver market, the sector may decline another 10% to 15% from current levels, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index potentially dipping to around 9500 points. Last week, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell a cumulative 0.7%, with a total decline of over 5% in the past two weeks; on Monday, Anthropic's public IPO prospectus boosted the AI sector, leading chip stocks to rise, and the Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 0.82%, closing at 26169.38 points.
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